PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Santa Lucía vs Marsa Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 3-1
Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
Vs
31%
23%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsa
Marsa
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Santa Lucía win✓ Hit
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsa win✗ Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W20W12L15L53W31W36L00D11D33DA·LIJ22/12H·ZUR04/01A·TAR19/01A·FGU25/01H·MGA02/02A·SEN08/02H·ZUR15/02A·TAR22/02H·MGA02/03A·PIE09/03
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.671.531.601.601.73
vs Stronger (2)1.003.50--1.003.50
vs Similar (21)1.481.331.501.501.441.11
vs Weaker (7)2.002.141.672.002.252.25
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L20W42W00D21W01L11D23L25L02LA·PIE22/12A·MTA04/01H·ZEB19/01H·ST.26/01A·GUD01/02H·VAL09/02A·MGA15/02H·SWI22/02A·PIE01/03H·ZUR09/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.231.251.251.641.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.301.301.201.201.401.40
vs Weaker (10)1.701.101.331.332.250.75
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.8%
Under 2.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.0%
No
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
7.0%
1-3
5.8%
0-2
5.4%
2-3
4.7%
0-1
4.5%
Santa Lucía goals ↓
Marsa goals →
01234
03.6%4.5%5.4%3.6%1.8%
13.5%9.6%8.7%5.8%2.9%
23.6%7.1%7.0%4.7%2.3%
31.9%3.8%3.8%2.5%1.2%
40.8%1.5%1.5%1.0%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Santa Lucía goals (down), columns = Marsa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valletta FC
2.68
Tarxien Rainbows
1.77
Fgura United
1.64
Swieqi United
1.64
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Zurrieq
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.45
Mgarr United
1.41
St. Andrews
1.32
Marsa
1.32
Sirens
1.23
Gudja United
1.23
Zebbug Rangers
0.95
Mtarfa
0.91
Lija Athletic
0.86
Senglea Athletic
0.64
Santa Lucía is 0.14 points better than Marsa in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.32).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valletta FC
2.23
Fgura United
1.68
Sirens
1.68
Santa Lucía
1.64
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Swieqi United
1.50
Zurrieq
1.45
Mgarr United
1.45
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.36
Zebbug Rangers
1.32
Tarxien Rainbows
1.32
Lija Athletic
1.14
St. Andrews
1.09
Mtarfa
1.05
Senglea Athletic
0.91
Santa Lucía is 0.18 goals better than Marsa in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.45).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Valletta FC
0.32
Tarxien Rainbows
1.00
Fgura United
1.09
St. Andrews
1.23
Mgarr United
1.27
Swieqi United
1.32
Pietà Hotspurs
1.36
Zurrieq
1.41
Gudja United
1.55
Marsa
1.55
Lija Athletic
1.73
Senglea Athletic
1.73
Mtarfa
1.77
Zebbug Rangers
1.82
Sirens
1.82
Santa Lucía
1.86
Santa Lucía is 0.32 goals worse than Marsa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.55).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D13L20W10W22D00D00D01LA·LIJ22/12H·ZUR04/01A·TAR19/01A·FGU25/01H·MGA02/02A·SEN08/02H·ZUR15/02A·TAR22/02H·MGA02/03A·PIE09/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.730.400.670.60
vs Stronger (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.570.330.750.330.330.33
vs Weaker (7)1.290.860.670.671.751.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaMarsa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W31W00D11D01L10W22D02L01LA·PIE22/12A·MTA04/01H·ZEB19/01H·ST.26/01A·GUD01/02H·VAL09/02A·MGA15/02H·SWI22/02A·PIE01/03H·ZUR09/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.810.500.860.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.750.500.700.400.800.60
vs Weaker (10)1.000.701.000.671.000.75
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W12L02L33D21W14L00D11D32WA·LIJ22/12H·ZUR04/01A·TAR19/01A·FGU25/01H·MGA02/02A·SEN08/02H·ZUR15/02A·TAR22/02H·MGA02/03A·PIE09/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.170.801.200.931.13
vs Stronger (2)1.002.50--1.002.50
vs Similar (21)0.901.000.751.171.110.78
vs Weaker (7)0.711.291.001.330.501.25
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaMarsa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W11D00D10W00D01L01L23L01LA·PIE22/12A·MTA04/01H·ZEB19/01H·ST.26/01A·GUD01/02H·VAL09/02A·MGA15/02H·SWI22/02A·PIE01/03H·ZUR09/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.440.750.790.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.550.800.500.800.600.80
vs Weaker (10)0.700.400.330.671.250.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.3%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes70.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VF (20)
€4m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VF (7)
€2m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VF (5)
€1m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VF (8)
€2m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SL wins
0
Draws
1
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Santa Lucía vs Marsa · H/A from SL
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/24HSL Vs Marsa0-5

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/25APietà Hotspurs Vs SL3-3
02/03/25HSL Vs Mgarr United1-1
22/02/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs SL0-0
15/02/25HSL Vs Zurrieq3-6
08/02/25ASenglea Athletic Vs SL1-3
02/02/25HSL Vs Mgarr United5-3
25/01/25AFgura United Vs SL5-1
19/01/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs SL2-1
04/01/25HSL Vs Zurrieq2-0
22/12/24ALija Athletic Vs SL0-1

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/25HMAR Vs Zurrieq0-2
01/03/25APietà Hotspurs Vs MAR5-2
22/02/25HMAR Vs Swieqi United2-3
15/02/25AMgarr United Vs MAR1-1
09/02/25HMAR Vs Valletta FC0-1
01/02/25AGudja United Vs MAR1-2
26/01/25HMAR Vs St. Andrews0-0
19/01/25HMAR Vs Zebbug Rangers4-2
04/01/25AMtarfa Vs MAR0-2
22/12/24APietà Hotspurs Vs MAR1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDD1.24
HomeWWWLD1.25
AwayLLWDD1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals2.862.673.04
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %54%38%69%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.201.081.31
Conceded1.661.581.73
BTTS48%38%58%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsa
Marsa
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.54
HomeWDLLL1.38
AwayLWWDL1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals2.922.773.08
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %36%31%42%
Scored1.681.461.92
Conceded1.241.311.17
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet30%35%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valletta FCValletta FC2259
86%
2.7
497+42
2.5
73%
59%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.20.3
-
2Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows2239
50%
1.8
2922+7
2.3
77%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
3Fgura UnitedFgura United2236
50%
1.6
3724+13
2.8
64%
59%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
4Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2236
45%
1.6
3329+4
2.8
77%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
5Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
3430+4
2.9
73%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
6ZurrieqZurrieq2232
41%
1.5
3231+1
2.9
82%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
7Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2232
41%
1.5
3641-5
3.5
82%
68%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.9
-
8Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2231
32%
1.4
3228+4
2.7
82%
41%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9MarsaMarsa2229
36%
1.3
3234-2
3.0
77%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
10St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2229
36%
1.3
2427-3
2.3
59%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
11SirensSirens2227
32%
1.2
3740-3
3.5
100%
86%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
12Gudja UnitedGudja United2227
32%
1.2
3034-4
2.9
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2221
18%
1.0
2940-11
3.1
86%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14MtarfaMtarfa2220
27%
0.9
2339-16
2.8
86%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
15Lija AthleticLija Athletic2219
23%
0.9
2538-13
2.9
77%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
16Senglea AthleticSenglea Athletic2214
14%
0.6
2038-18
2.6
82%
55%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
Malta: Challenge League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

← all matches