The model favours an away win for Naxxar Lions, with a 48% chance, while the home side and a draw each sit at 26%. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.2% probability. Santa Lucía, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, whereas Naxxar Lions, on the road, average 1.15 scored and 1.85 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (92.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.4%), Away +2 handicap (89.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.8%) and Under 4.5 (82.8%). The home win percentage is 26%, the draw 26%, and the away win 48%. Santa Lucía have been on a two-game winning run, recently beating Mtarfa 5-1, while Naxxar Lions have suffered two straight defeats, losing 0-1 to Mosta.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Santa Lucía win
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win
48.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Santa Lucía
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
1.73
1.53
1.93
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.35
1.75
1.25
2.25
1.42
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
2.10
1.71
1.86
0.67
2.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naxxar Lions
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.46
1.00
1.18
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.86
0.67
1.00
1.25
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.48
1.70
1.00
1.15
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
1-3
5.5%
Santa Lucía goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
8.1%
7.9%
4.6%
2.0%
1
5.4%
12%
9.6%
5.5%
2.4%
2
3.9%
6.7%
5.8%
3.3%
1.4%
3
1.6%
2.7%
2.3%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Santa Lucía goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Santa Lucía is 1.37 points worse than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 2.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Santa Lucía is 1.41 goals worse than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 3.23).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Santa Lucía is 0.56 goals worse than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Santa Lucía or Draw
51.7%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Santa Lucía + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía or Naxxar Lions
74.0%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Santa Lucía + Naxxar Lions
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Naxxar Lions
74.3%
Avg Implied -
26%
26%
48%
covers Draw + Naxxar Lions
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5
Over
82.1%
Under
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Santa Lucía, so a minus line means Santa Lucía give that many goals of a start and Naxxar Lions receive them. At -1, Santa Lucía must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Santa Lucía win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Santa Lucía)
Santa Lucía -2
3.5%
Draw -2
7.4%
Naxxar Lions +2
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Santa Lucía)
Santa Lucía -1
10.9%
Draw -1
14.8%
Naxxar Lions +1
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Santa Lucía)
Santa Lucía +1
51.7%
Draw +1
21.6%
Naxxar Lions -1
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Santa Lucía)
Santa Lucía +2
73.3%
Draw +2
15.1%
Naxxar Lions -2
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Santa Lucía
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.55
0.88
0.38
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.60
0.71
0.86
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naxxar Lions
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.54
0.46
0.71
0.76
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Santa Lucía
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
0.93
0.93
1.27
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.80
0.88
0.88
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naxxar Lions
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.92
0.54
0.47
1.24
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.91
1.10
0.60
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Fgura United
Gudja United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars