Santa Lucía are favoured to win the Malta Challenge League clash against Vittoriosa Stars, with a 42 % chance of triumph, a 26 % draw probability and a 32 % chance for the visitors. The match is expected to see about 3.0 goals on average, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1 % chance. Santa Lucía have been solid at home, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding 1.62 against similar opposition, while Vittoriosa Stars, playing away, average 1.55 goals scored and 2.18 conceded versus comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Under 6.5 (96.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.8 %), Under 5.5 (91.3 %), Home +2 handicap (84.9 %), Away under 2.5 goals (83.2 %) and Over 1.5 (81.6 %). Santa Lucía’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Vittoriosa Stars are coming off two defeats.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Santa Lucía win
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars win
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Santa Lucía
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
1.73
1.53
1.93
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.35
1.75
1.25
2.25
1.42
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
2.10
1.71
1.86
0.67
2.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
0.94
1.31
1.57
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.80
0.78
1.33
1.55
2.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.25
1.17
1.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
Santa Lucía goals ↓
Vittoriosa Stars goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.7%
4.8%
2.2%
0.8%
1
6.7%
12%
7.8%
3.6%
1.3%
2
6.4%
9.0%
6.3%
3.0%
1.0%
3
3.5%
4.9%
3.4%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.4%
2.0%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Santa Lucía goals (down), columns = Vittoriosa Stars goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Santa Lucía is 0.41 points better than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Santa Lucía is 0.64 goals better than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Santa Lucía is 0.09 goals better than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Santa Lucía or Draw
67.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Santa Lucía + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía or Vittoriosa Stars
73.8%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Santa Lucía + Vittoriosa Stars
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vittoriosa Stars
58.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Draw + Vittoriosa Stars
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Santa Lucía, so a minus line means Santa Lucía give that many goals of a start and Vittoriosa Stars receive them. At -1, Santa Lucía must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Santa Lucía win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Santa Lucía)
Santa Lucía -2
9.0%
Draw -2
12.8%
Vittoriosa Stars +2
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Santa Lucía)
Santa Lucía -1
21.8%
Draw -1
19.8%
Vittoriosa Stars +1
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Santa Lucía)
Santa Lucía +1
67.9%
Draw +1
17.0%
Vittoriosa Stars -1
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Santa Lucía)
Santa Lucía +2
84.9%
Draw +2
9.6%
Vittoriosa Stars -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Santa Lucía
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.55
0.88
0.38
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.60
0.71
0.86
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.31
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.90
0.20
0.80
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.6%
Under 0.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.2%
Under 1.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.7%
Under 2.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Santa Lucía
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
0.93
0.93
1.27
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.80
0.88
0.88
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.56
0.56
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.90
0.50
0.60
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
0.60
0.60
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.0%
Under 0.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.1%
Under 1.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.2%
Under 2.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.2%
Under
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →