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Santa Lucía vs Zebbug Rangers Result & Analysis

Date: 20/01/2023
Time: 19:30
Final 2-1
Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
Vs
38%
28%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zebbug Rangers
Zebbug Rangers
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Santa Lucía win✓ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D23L21W00D01L02L02L12L01L13LA·MAR08/10H·HIB16/10A·PIE22/10H·SIR29/10A·FLO05/11H·VAL12/11A·HAM04/12H·MOS11/12H·GZI15/12A·BAL07/01
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.672.070.502.120.862.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.50--0.001.50
vs Similar (11)0.822.090.432.001.502.25
vs Weaker (2)0.502.501.003.000.002.00
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L33D01L03L42W02L02L23L05LA·HIB07/10H·PIE16/10A·SIR21/10H·FLO29/10A·VAL06/11H·HAM27/11A·MOS04/12H·GZI11/12H·BAL16/12A·BIR07/01
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.932.201.121.750.712.71
vs Stronger (14)0.932.211.121.750.672.83
vs Similar (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.6%
No
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
1-0
8.3%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
7.9%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
5.7%
Santa Lucía goals ↓
Zebbug Rangers goals →
01234
08.1%7.6%5.7%2.5%0.8%
18.3%14%7.9%3.4%1.1%
26.6%8.5%5.5%2.4%0.8%
33.1%4.0%2.5%1.1%0.4%
41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Santa Lucía goals (down), columns = Zebbug Rangers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa Lucía
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
Pietà Hotspurs
0.46
Santa Lucía is 0.04 points better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of average points per game (0.58 vs 0.54).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
Pietà Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa Lucía
0.77
Santa Lucía is 0.04 goals worse than Zebbug Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 0.81).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa Lucía
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
2.50
Santa Lucía is 0.35 goals better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 2.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D11D00D00D01L00D01L01L12LA·MAR08/10H·HIB16/10A·PIE22/10H·SIR29/10A·FLO05/11H·VAL12/11A·HAM04/12H·MOS11/12H·GZI15/12A·BAL07/01
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.000.120.880.571.14
vs Stronger (2)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.451.270.140.861.002.00
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D31W00D00D21W00D01L11D04LA·HIB07/10H·PIE16/10A·SIR21/10H·FLO29/10A·VAL06/11H·HAM27/11A·MOS04/12H·GZI11/12H·BAL16/12A·BIR07/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.500.750.571.29
vs Stronger (14)0.570.930.500.750.671.17
vs Similar (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L10W00D01L01L02L11D00D01LA·MAR08/10H·HIB16/10A·PIE22/10H·SIR29/10A·FLO05/11H·VAL12/11A·HAM04/12H·MOS11/12H·GZI15/12A·BAL07/01
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.070.381.250.290.86
vs Stronger (2)0.001.50--0.001.50
vs Similar (11)0.360.820.291.140.500.25
vs Weaker (2)0.502.001.002.000.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L02L01L03L21W02L01L12L01LA·HIB07/10H·PIE16/10A·SIR21/10H·FLO29/10A·VAL06/11H·HAM27/11A·MOS04/12H·GZI11/12H·BAL16/12A·BIR07/01
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.200.621.000.141.43
vs Stronger (14)0.361.290.621.000.001.67
vs Similar (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SL wins
0
Draws
1
ZR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Santa Lucía vs Zebbug Rangers · H/A from SL
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22AZebbug Rangers Vs SL2-0

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/01/23ABalzan FC Vs SL3-1
15/12/22HSL Vs Gzira United0-1
11/12/22HSL Vs Mosta1-2
04/12/22AHamrun Spartans Vs SL2-0
12/11/22HSL Vs Valletta FC0-2
05/11/22AFloriana Vs SL1-0
29/10/22HSL Vs Sirens0-0
22/10/22APietà Hotspurs Vs SL1-2
16/10/22HSL Vs Hibernians2-3
08/10/22AMarsaxlokk Vs SL2-2

Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/01/23ABirkirkara Vs ZR5-0
16/12/22HZR Vs Balzan FC2-3
11/12/22HZR Vs Gzira United0-2
04/12/22AMosta Vs ZR2-0
27/11/22HZR Vs Hamrun Spartans4-2
06/11/22AValletta FC Vs ZR3-0
29/10/22HZR Vs Floriana0-1
21/10/22ASirens Vs ZR3-3
16/10/22HZR Vs Pietà Hotspurs0-1
07/10/22AHibernians Vs ZR1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.33
HomeLDLLL0.12
AwayDWLLL0.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %7%0%14%
AVG goals2.732.622.86
Over 1.5 %80%75%86%
Over 2.5 %53%50%57%
Over 3.5 %40%38%43%
Scored0.670.500.86
Conceded2.072.122.00
BTTS47%38%57%
Clean Sheet7%12%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Zebbug Rangers
Zebbug Rangers
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.47
HomeLLWLL0.75
AwayLDLLL0.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%25%0%
AVG goals3.132.883.43
Over 1.5 %80%75%86%
Over 2.5 %60%50%71%
Over 3.5 %33%25%43%
Scored0.931.120.71
Conceded2.201.752.71
BTTS40%38%43%
Clean Sheet7%12%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2669
85%
2.7
4510+35
2.1
58%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.70.4
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara2650
54%
1.9
5020+30
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.90.8
-
3Gzira UnitedGzira United2648
54%
1.8
4619+27
2.5
73%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
4HiberniansHibernians2747
52%
1.7
4739+8
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.71.4
-
5Balzan FCBalzan FC2747
52%
1.7
3934+5
2.7
70%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
6MostaMosta2646
54%
1.8
4733+14
3.1
96%
69%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.3
-
7Valletta FCValletta FC2637
35%
1.4
3723+14
2.3
62%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
8FlorianaFloriana2637
38%
1.4
3026+4
2.2
58%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.0
-
9SirensSirens2633
31%
1.3
2532-7
2.2
58%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Gudja UnitedGudja United2629
31%
1.1
2839-11
2.6
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
11MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2625
19%
1.0
2838-10
2.5
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.5
-
12Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2615
15%
0.6
2049-29
2.7
81%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2614
15%
0.5
2158-37
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
14Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2612
12%
0.5
2265-43
3.3
85%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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