Sardarapat’s recent unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 3-1 win over Syunik, sets them up as the clear favourite in this Armenia Premier League clash. The model rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 12%, making a victory for the home side the single most likely outcome. The expected total goals is 3.5, with the most probable total of three goals, a 22% chance. The scoreline the model deems most likely is 2-0, with a 9.5% probability.
Against Ararat, Sardarapat’s home form shows an average of 2.83 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded, while Ararat’s away form is weaker, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 3.8 conceded against stronger opponents. This imbalance explains the high confidence in a home win.
The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 97.3%, Home +2 handicap at 95.7%, Under 6.5 at 93.5%, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.2%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.9%, Home or Draw at 87.9%, and Home +1 handicap at 87.9%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sardarapat win
70.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat win
11.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sardarapat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.67
2.64
0.64
2.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
0.40
1.50
0.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.64
0.72
2.83
0.75
2.46
0.69
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
2.43
0.64
1.64
0.88
3.12
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
2.84
0.56
1.78
0.50
3.80
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.73
0.80
1.40
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.5%
Under 3.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.2%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
6.9%
4-0
5.2%
4-1
5.0%
Sardarapat goals ↓
Ararat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
6.9%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.7%
9.4%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
8.2%
7.9%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
4
5.2%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sardarapat goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Sardarapat is 1.90 points better than Ararat in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Sardarapat is 1.90 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Sardarapat is 1.40 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sardarapat or Draw
88.4%
Avg Implied -
71%
18%
12%
covers Sardarapat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat or Ararat
82.1%
Avg Implied -
71%
18%
12%
covers Sardarapat + Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat
29.5%
Avg Implied -
71%
18%
12%
covers Draw + Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5
Over
92.1%
Under
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 3.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sardarapat, so a minus line means Sardarapat give that many goals of a start and Ararat receive them. At -1, Sardarapat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sardarapat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat -2
29.1%
Draw -2
20.4%
Ararat +2
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat -1
49.6%
Draw -1
21.0%
Ararat +1
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat +1
88.4%
Draw +1
7.6%
Ararat -1
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat +2
96.0%
Draw +2
3.0%
Ararat -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sardarapat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.23
1.57
0.21
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.44
0.24
1.75
0.25
1.15
0.23
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.00
0.14
0.79
0.44
1.19
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
1.11
0.11
0.89
0.30
1.30
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.82
0.20
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sardarapat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.43
1.07
0.43
1.25
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.20
0.48
1.08
0.50
1.31
0.46
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.50
0.86
0.44
1.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
1.74
0.44
0.89
0.20
2.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.60
0.80
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Sardarapat's squad is €1m less valuable than Ararat's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Sardarapat and Ararat have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Sardarapat and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Sardarapat and Ararat have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Syunik
Van