Sardarapat’s home record shows a clean sheet average of 0.0 goals conceded, yet they have only scored 1.5 on average against similar opposition. FC Urartu, playing away, has a slightly higher scoring rate of 1.29 but concedes 1.14, indicating a modest defensive gap. The model projects a tight 2.2-goal affair, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. The favoured result is an away win, with probabilities of 39% for FC Urartu, 31% for a draw, and 29% for Sardarapat. Both teams have recently been unbeaten, Sardarapat drawing 1-1 against Ararat-Armenia and FC Urartu drawing 1-1 against Alashkert, suggesting a cautious start. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 4.5 (92.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.7%) and Away +2 handicap (88.5%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sardarapat win
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sardarapat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.67
2.64
0.64
2.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
0.40
1.50
0.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.64
0.72
2.83
0.75
2.46
0.69
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.00
2.07
1.40
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.65
1.10
2.00
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.15
4.00
0.20
1.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
10.3%
1-0
9.7%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
6.2%
Sardarapat goals ↓
FC Urartu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
1
9.7%
15%
7.9%
3.2%
0.9%
2
6.2%
7.5%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.4%
2.8%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sardarapat goals (down), columns = FC Urartu goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Sardarapat is 0.90 points better than FC Urartu in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Sardarapat is 0.90 goals better than FC Urartu in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Sardarapat and FC Urartu are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sardarapat or Draw
63.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
36%
covers Sardarapat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat or FC Urartu
69.3%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
36%
covers Sardarapat + FC Urartu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Urartu
67.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
36%
covers Draw + FC Urartu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sardarapat, so a minus line means Sardarapat give that many goals of a start and FC Urartu receive them. At -1, Sardarapat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sardarapat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat -2
4.4%
Draw -2
9.6%
FC Urartu +2
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat -1
14.0%
Draw -1
19.1%
FC Urartu +1
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat +1
63.8%
Draw +1
20.2%
FC Urartu -1
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat +2
84.0%
Draw +2
10.7%
FC Urartu -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sardarapat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.23
1.57
0.21
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.44
0.24
1.75
0.25
1.15
0.23
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.93
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sardarapat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.43
1.07
0.43
1.25
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.20
0.48
1.08
0.50
1.31
0.46
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
1.00
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.00
0.50
1.40
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.15
2.40
0.20
0.88
0.12
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Sardarapat's squad is €3m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Sardarapat's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Sardarapat and FC Urartu have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Sardarapat's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van