Sardarapat’s unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 3-1 win over Syunik, gives the home side confidence, yet Pyunik Yerevan’s recent three-game winning streak, including a 2-1 victory at Ararat-Armenia, suggests a stronger form on the road. The model’s most divergent view is the 37% chance of an away win, higher than the market’s implied 32% home win and 31% draw, reflecting Pyunik’s superior away scoring average of 0.8 versus Sardarapat’s 1.5 at home and their ability to concede 1.4 goals on the road. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the single most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14.5%. Sardarapat’s home form shows 1.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded against similar opponents, while Pyunik’s away form records 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (96.9% with a 9% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%). The model favours an away win, a 1-1 scoreline, and a total of two goals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sardarapat win
31.9%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.44
Edge
-31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Dafabet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.12
Edge
+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
Dafabet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Pyunik Yerevan win
37.4%
Avg Implied 14.7% · @ 6.16
Edge
+22.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.67
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
Dafabet
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sardarapat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.67
2.64
0.64
2.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
0.40
1.50
0.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.64
0.72
2.83
0.75
2.46
0.69
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.67
1.87
0.60
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.18
1.00
1.00
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.79
0.37
2.44
0.33
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.9%
@ 1.17-8.5%
Under 1.5
31.1%
@ 4.00+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.1%
@ 1.63-15.5%
Under 2.5
58.9%
@ 2.13+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Under
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.6%
@ 2.46-16.1%
Under 3.5
79.4%
@ 1.43+16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Under
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Both teams to score
Yes
48.5%
@ 1.77-3.1%
No
51.5%
@ 1.89+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
No
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 7.42+8.9%
0-0
11.1%@ 12.06+7.6%
0-1
10.6%@ 17.12+8.2%
1-0
9.5%@ 6.95+3.5%
1-2
8.0%@ 17.44+5.7%
2-1
7.3%@ 7.62+1.9%
0-2
7.3%@ 33.50+6.0%
2-0
6.0%@ 6.56-0.3%
Sardarapat goals ↓
Pyunik Yerevan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
1
9.5%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.0%
7.3%
4.5%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.2%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sardarapat goals (down), columns = Pyunik Yerevan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Sardarapat and Pyunik Yerevan are level in average points per game (both 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Sardarapat is 0.25 goals better than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 2.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Sardarapat is 0.25 goals worse than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sardarapat or Draw
62.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
37%
covers Sardarapat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat or Pyunik Yerevan
69.3%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
37%
covers Sardarapat + Pyunik Yerevan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
68.1%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
37%
covers Draw + Pyunik Yerevan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sardarapat, so a minus line means Sardarapat give that many goals of a start and Pyunik Yerevan receive them. At -1, Sardarapat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sardarapat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat -2
4.1%
Draw -2
9.2%
Pyunik Yerevan +2
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat -1
13.2%
Draw -1
18.6%
Pyunik Yerevan +1
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat +1
62.6%
Draw +1
20.7%
Pyunik Yerevan -1
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat +2
83.3%
Draw +2
11.1%
Pyunik Yerevan -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sardarapat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.23
1.57
0.21
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.44
0.24
1.75
0.25
1.15
0.23
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.23
1.13
0.20
0.27
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.45
0.67
0.33
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.11
1.44
0.11
0.30
0.10
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.4%
Under 0.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.1%
Under 1.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.4%
Under 2.5
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sardarapat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.43
1.07
0.43
1.25
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.20
0.48
1.08
0.50
1.31
0.46
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.73
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (19)
0.95
0.26
1.00
0.22
0.90
0.30
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.2%
Under 0.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.5%
Under 1.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
Under 2.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.9%
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+8.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.3%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
-
+12.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.4%
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
-
-
-
+16.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pyunik Yerevan · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Otubanjo33%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Artak Dashyan33%
Luka Juričić20%
Juninho17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Anton Bratkov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Miljković60%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan33%
Anton Bratkov33%
Mikhail Kovalenko25%
Sergiy Vakulenko25%
Alexander Karapetyan20%
Luka Juričić20%
David Yurchenko17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander González33%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan17%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Luka Juričić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artak Dashyan67%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Luka Juričić20%
Yusuf Otubanjo17%
Dame Diop17%
Alexander González0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Sardarapat's squad is €4m less valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€2m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Sardarapat's attack is €1m less valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Sardarapat's midfield is €2m less valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Sardarapat's defence is €1m less valuable than Pyunik Yerevan's (€1m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Noah
Alashkert
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van