Sardarapat’s recent unbeaten run and a 2.83 average of goals at home against weaker opposition make them the clear favourite, and the model picks a home win. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderate scoring game, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for Sardarapat at 12.6%. Home form shows they score 2.83 and concede only 0.75, while Van, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.38 goals scored and 2.62 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 66% home win, 22% draw, and 12% away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 97.6%, Home +2 handicap at 96.3%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.8%, Under 5.5 at 93.6%, Home or Draw at 87.8%, and Home +1 handicap also at 87.8%. Each selection carries its own probability, with no overlap with the match-result percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sardarapat win
65.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Van win
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sardarapat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.67
2.64
0.64
2.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
0.40
1.50
0.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.64
0.72
2.83
0.75
2.46
0.69
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.87
1.27
1.73
0.60
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.31
1.20
1.80
0.38
2.62
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.53
1.30
1.70
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.6%
1-0
11.6%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.3%
Sardarapat goals ↓
Van goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
3.8%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
12%
10%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.6%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
3
8.5%
6.5%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.3%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sardarapat goals (down), columns = Van goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Sardarapat is 2.33 points better than Van in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Sardarapat is 2.17 goals better than Van in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Sardarapat is 2.00 goals better than Van in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sardarapat or Draw
87.8%
Avg Implied -
66%
22%
12%
covers Sardarapat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat or Van
78.0%
Avg Implied -
66%
22%
12%
covers Sardarapat + Van
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Van
34.1%
Avg Implied -
66%
22%
12%
covers Draw + Van
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5
Over
60.0%
Under
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 3.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sardarapat, so a minus line means Sardarapat give that many goals of a start and Van receive them. At -1, Sardarapat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sardarapat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat -2
21.4%
Draw -2
20.5%
Van +2
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat -1
41.9%
Draw -1
24.0%
Van +1
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat +1
87.8%
Draw +1
8.5%
Van -1
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sardarapat)
Sardarapat +2
96.3%
Draw +2
2.9%
Van -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sardarapat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.23
1.57
0.21
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.44
0.24
1.75
0.25
1.15
0.23
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.08
0.40
0.40
0.12
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.94
0.50
1.00
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sardarapat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.43
1.07
0.43
1.25
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.20
0.48
1.08
0.50
1.31
0.46
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.23
0.80
1.40
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.80
0.70
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Sardarapat and Van have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Sardarapat and Van have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Sardarapat and Van have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Sardarapat and Van have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik