The model favours a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, with a 47 % chance of triumph, 27 % for a draw and 26 % for Ham-Kam. The average goal tally is 2.9, so the most likely total is two goals, a 25 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5 % chance. Sarpsborg’s home form shows they score an average of one goal and concede 1.14 against opponents of similar strength, while Ham-Kam’s away attack averages 2.12 goals and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 87.5 %, Over 1.5 at 78.9 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 76.5 % (hit), Under 4.5 cards at 75.0 %, Over 8.5 corners at 74.3 % and Under 25.5 fouls at 70.4 %. Sarpsborg comes off a win, Ham-Kam also off a win, both teams have shown recent resilience. The expected outcome is a narrow home victory, with Sarpsborg likely holding the advantage.
Results analysis
After a win that extends Sarpsborg 08 FF’s recent run, the home side edged Ham-Kam 1-0, confirming the model’s pre-match favourite of a home win at 47 %. The final result matched the predicted outcome, so the model’s call was correct. The model also selected six other outcomes: Under 5.5 cards (87.5 % probability) missed, Over 1.5 (78.9 %) missed, Over 19.5 fouls (76.5 %) hit, Under 4.5 cards (75.0 %) missed, Over 8.5 corners (74.3 %) missed, and Under 25.5 fouls (70.4 %) missed. Despite the strong odds, only the foul count selection succeeded, illustrating a tough day for the model’s other picks.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF win✓ Hit
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ham-Kam win✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.80
1.31
1.38
1.47
2.12
vs Stronger (7)
1.71
1.57
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.82
1.00
1.14
1.40
2.13
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ham-Kam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ham-Kam
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.67
1.94
1.44
1.36
1.93
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.31
1.57
2.14
0.33
2.50
vs Similar (17)
2.18
1.18
2.22
0.89
2.12
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.5%
No
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.5%
1-0 ✓
8.4%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
Sarpsborg 08 FF goals ↓
Ham-Kam goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
5.7%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.4%
13%
6.8%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.5%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.4%
5.3%
3.1%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sarpsborg 08 FF goals (down), columns = Ham-Kam goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.41
Viking
2.35
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.59
Lillestrom
1.53
Brann
1.47
Rosenborg
1.41
Fredrikstad
1.35
Ham-Kam
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.29
Valerenga
1.24
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Sandefjord
1.06
Aalesund
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Start
0.59
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam are level in average points per game (both 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.53
Viking
2.35
Brann
2.12
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.88
Valerenga
1.65
Aalesund
1.59
Rosenborg
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.41
Lillestrom
1.35
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.18
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Fredrikstad
1.06
Start
0.94
Sandefjord
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Sarpsborg 08 FF is 0.24 goals worse than Ham-Kam in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.71
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.18
Lillestrom
1.24
Rosenborg
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.35
Sandefjord
1.35
Molde
1.53
KFUM Oslo
1.59
Fredrikstad
1.59
Kristiansund BK
1.59
Brann
1.59
Ham-Kam
1.76
Valerenga
2.00
Start
2.24
Aalesund
2.41
Sarpsborg 08 FF is 0.41 goals better than Ham-Kam in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.76).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
65%
Brann
59%
Molde
59%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
51%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Fredrikstad
47%
Ham-Kam
47%
KFUM Oslo
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Sarpsborg 08 FF is 1.9 percentage points worse than Ham-Kam in terms of average possession (45% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF
For 4.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ham-Kam
For 3.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.2 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.2
11.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
22.6
22.8
22.5
vs Stronger (12)
13.5
13.6
13.2
1.5
1.2
2.0
19.1
17.6
21.8
vs Similar (34)
10.1
9.2
10.8
3.0
3.3
2.8
23.6
25.2
22.4
vs Weaker (4)
16.5
20.0
13.0
1.8
2.0
1.7
28.5
30.0
27.0
% over line
63%
60%
67%
34%
32%
36%
54%
55%
52%
% under line
37%
40%
33%
66%
68%
64%
46%
45%
48%
This opponent (Ham-Kam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ham-Kam
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.1
10.0
2.3
2.3
2.4
22.8
23.4
22.2
vs Stronger (19)
10.9
11.5
10.2
2.2
1.5
3.0
21.5
21.6
21.4
vs Similar (29)
10.3
10.8
9.9
2.6
2.9
2.4
23.7
24.8
22.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
59%
57%
62%
30%
29%
31%
55%
65%
43%
% under line
41%
43%
38%
70%
71%
69%
45%
35%
57%
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
11.6
Viking
11.5
Aalesund
11.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.1
Rosenborg
11.0
Ham-Kam
10.9
Bodo/Glimt
10.8
Sandefjord
10.7
Brann
10.7
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Lillestrom
10.2
Molde
9.9
Fredrikstad
9.6
Tromso
9.2
KFUM Oslo
8.8
Start
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.3
Molde
4.2
Brann
4.1
Rosenborg
4.0
Lillestrom
3.9
Valerenga
3.9
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Start
3.7
Sandefjord
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.3
Ham-Kam
2.9
Bodo/Glimt
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
25.2
Viking
24.7
Start
24.3
Brann
24.0
Rosenborg
23.8
Molde
23.3
Valerenga
23.2
Tromso
22.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.8
Kristiansund BK
22.1
Ham-Kam
22.0
Lillestrom
21.7
KFUM Oslo
21.5
Aalesund
21.4
Fredrikstad
20.8
Bodo/Glimt
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.0%
Under 9.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.5%
Under 21.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.80
0.92
0.69
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.77
0.86
0.43
0.93
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ham-Kam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ham-Kam
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.12
0.44
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.00
0.86
0.86
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.29
1.33
0.11
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ham-Kam over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ham-Kam over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ham-Kam over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.38
0.69
0.53
1.24
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.36
1.05
0.14
0.71
0.47
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ham-Kam) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ham-Kam
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.07
0.81
1.00
0.93
1.14
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.31
0.71
1.29
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.18
0.88
0.89
0.78
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ham-Kam over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ham-Kam over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ham-Kam over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Molde
Lillestrom
Brann
Rosenborg
Fredrikstad
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
Sandefjord
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
Start