Sarpsborg 08 FF enter the match after a draw against Tromso, while Valerenga come off a 3-4 loss to Molde. The model’s strongest edge lies in its home win probability of 44%, far above the draw at 25% and the away win at 31%. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.5% probability, distinct from the total-goals prediction. Sarpsborg’s home form shows an average of one goal scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Valerenga’s away form averages 1.1 scored and 2.5 conceded to comparable teams. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Under 7.5 at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.0%, Under 6.5 at 94.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.4%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.9%. Each pick’s probability is listed, and the edge percentages are noted where provided.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF win
44.6%
Avg Implied 47.3% · @ 1.97
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.14
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Betano
1.98
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.88
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.16
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
1xBet
3.97
BetVictor
3.90
Valerenga win
29.7%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.25
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.42
Unibet
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.63
1.31
1.38
1.47
1.82
vs Stronger (9)
1.78
1.78
1.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.65
1.00
1.14
1.31
1.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valerenga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.4
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
2.07
1.88
1.56
1.71
2.64
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
2.33
1.33
1.33
2.00
3.33
vs Similar (23)
1.61
2.00
2.00
1.62
1.10
2.50
vs Weaker (1)
7.00
2.00
-
-
7.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.4%
@ 1.09-2.6%
Under 1.5
17.6%
@ 6.20+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Under
BetVictor
7.00
Pinnacle
6.52
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.38-7.7%
Under 2.5
40.4%
@ 2.84+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
10Bet
2.88
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.2%
@ 1.98-10.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
@ 1.79+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.04
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
62.3%
@ 1.37-5.3%
No
37.7%
@ 2.86+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.38
No
BetVictor
3.00
1xBet
2.94
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 8.08+6.2%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.45+3.8%
1-2
7.4%@ 10.79+3.1%
1-0
6.8%@ 12.42+3.1%
2-0
6.7%@ 12.97+3.2%
2-2
6.3%@ 10.04+1.8%
0-0
5.6%@ 18.98+3.2%
3-1
5.3%@ 12.22+1.5%
Sarpsborg 08 FF goals ↓
Valerenga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.2%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
1
6.8%
12%
7.4%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.7%
9.2%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.8%
5.3%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sarpsborg 08 FF goals (down), columns = Valerenga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.44
Viking
2.39
Tromso
1.94
Molde
1.67
Fredrikstad
1.44
Lillestrom
1.44
Brann
1.44
Rosenborg
1.33
Ham-Kam
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Valerenga
1.17
KFUM Oslo
1.06
Sandefjord
1.06
Kristiansund BK
0.89
Aalesund
0.83
Start
0.72
Sarpsborg 08 FF is 0.11 points better than Valerenga in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.61
Viking
2.33
Molde
2.00
Brann
2.00
Tromso
1.89
Valerenga
1.72
Aalesund
1.56
Rosenborg
1.50
Ham-Kam
1.44
Lillestrom
1.33
Fredrikstad
1.22
KFUM Oslo
1.11
Start
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.11
Kristiansund BK
0.94
Sandefjord
0.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF is 0.61 goals worse than Valerenga in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.78
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Sandefjord
1.28
Lillestrom
1.39
Rosenborg
1.44
Brann
1.50
Fredrikstad
1.56
Molde
1.61
Kristiansund BK
1.61
KFUM Oslo
1.72
Ham-Kam
1.78
Valerenga
2.11
Start
2.17
Aalesund
2.39
Sarpsborg 08 FF is 0.83 goals better than Valerenga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 2.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
64%
Brann
59%
Molde
58%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
50%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Ham-Kam
48%
Fredrikstad
47%
KFUM Oslo
46%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Sarpsborg 08 FF is 3.9 percentage points worse than Valerenga in terms of average possession (45% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF
For 4.1 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valerenga
For 6.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 0.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.1 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.0
11.5
2.8
2.9
2.8
22.7
23.1
22.2
vs Stronger (13)
13.3
13.6
13.0
1.7
1.2
2.4
18.8
17.6
20.6
vs Similar (34)
10.1
9.0
10.9
3.3
4.0
2.9
23.8
25.6
22.4
vs Weaker (3)
16.5
20.0
13.0
2.3
2.0
2.5
28.5
30.0
27.0
% over line
60%
57%
64%
38%
36%
39%
53%
62%
45%
% under line
40%
43%
36%
62%
64%
61%
47%
38%
55%
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valerenga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.9
11.3
3.4
3.5
3.3
24.1
23.6
24.7
vs Stronger (8)
12.8
13.8
11.8
3.8
3.5
4.0
25.2
23.0
27.5
vs Similar (38)
11.4
11.2
11.6
3.4
3.5
3.4
23.9
23.7
24.1
vs Weaker (4)
10.5
17.0
4.0
2.2
4.0
1.7
24.0
24.0
24.0
% over line
67%
74%
61%
50%
48%
52%
63%
57%
70%
% under line
33%
26%
39%
50%
52%
48%
37%
43%
30%
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Aalesund
12.1
Viking
12.0
Valerenga
11.9
Rosenborg
11.3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.2
Brann
11.1
Bodo/Glimt
10.9
Sandefjord
10.9
Lillestrom
10.6
Ham-Kam
10.4
Kristiansund BK
10.3
Molde
10.1
Fredrikstad
9.9
Start
9.2
KFUM Oslo
9.0
Tromso
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.2
Molde
4.2
Start
4.1
Lillestrom
4.0
Brann
4.0
Rosenborg
4.0
Valerenga
4.0
KFUM Oslo
3.8
Sandefjord
3.7
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.3
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.2
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
25.5
Viking
24.5
Rosenborg
24.4
Valerenga
24.1
Brann
24.0
Tromso
23.9
Start
23.6
Ham-Kam
23.2
Molde
23.0
Lillestrom
22.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.6
Kristiansund BK
22.0
KFUM Oslo
21.8
Aalesund
21.6
Fredrikstad
20.9
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
69.0%
@ 1.37+1.3%
Under 9.5
31.0%
@ 2.86-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.34
Betano
1.30
Under
Betano
3.30
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.78
Pinnacle
2.56
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.0%
Under 3.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.4%
Under 21.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sarpsborg 08 FF or Draw
74.0%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
+2.8%
45%
26%
30%
covers Sarpsborg 08 FF + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
SBO
1.32
Sarpsborg 08 FF or Valerenga
76.0%
Avg Implied 76.3% · @ 1.23
Edge
-0.4%
45%
26%
30%
covers Sarpsborg 08 FF + Valerenga
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw or Valerenga
50.1%
Avg Implied 52.5% · @ 1.78
Edge
-2.4%
45%
26%
30%
covers Draw + Valerenga
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5
Over
85.6%
@ 1.10+1.3%
Under
14.4%
@ 5.91-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5
Over
57.6%
@ 1.57-1.6%
Under
42.4%
@ 2.28+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.27
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5
Over
30.6%
@ 2.77-3.0%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.40+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.78
Pinnacle
2.77
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 3.5
Over
13.1%
@ 5.77-3.0%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.11+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Valerenga over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
@ 1.21-2.6%
Under
25.6%
@ 4.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.05
1xBet
4.00
Valerenga over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
@ 2.07-5.6%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.70+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Unibet
2.08
Under
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Valerenga over/under 2.5
Over
15.7%
@ 4.35-5.6%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.18+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Valerenga over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
@ 10.49-4.1%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sarpsborg 08 FF, so a minus line means Sarpsborg 08 FF give that many goals of a start and Valerenga receive them. At -1, Sarpsborg 08 FF must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sarpsborg 08 FF win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sarpsborg 08 FF)
Sarpsborg 08 FF -2
13.7%
@ 6.35-0.4%
Draw -2
15.4%
@ 5.59-0.6%
Valerenga +2
70.9%
@ 1.29+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Unibet
5.60
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Sarpsborg 08 FF)
Sarpsborg 08 FF -1
29.1%
@ 3.23+1.3%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 4.12-1.0%
Valerenga +1
50.1%
@ 1.78-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
Unibet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (Sarpsborg 08 FF)
Sarpsborg 08 FF +1
74.0%
@ 1.31+5.5%
Draw +1
14.4%
@ 5.21-2.8%
Valerenga -1
11.7%
@ 6.24-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Draw
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Sarpsborg 08 FF)
Sarpsborg 08 FF +2
88.3%
@ 1.10+4.6%
Draw +2
7.6%
@ 9.50-2.1%
Valerenga -2
4.1%
@ 14.00-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
0.92
0.69
0.94
0.82
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.70
0.86
0.43
0.92
0.85
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valerenga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.03
1.00
0.81
0.86
1.29
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.83
1.09
1.08
0.85
0.50
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.21-6.6%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 4.00+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.10
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.92
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 2.01-7.8%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.74+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
SBO
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
SBO
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 4.28-8.0%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.18+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.4%
@ 1.59-6.0%
Under
47.6%
@ 2.23+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.27
Unibet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.3%
@ 3.85-5.8%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.22+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.2%
@ 9.50-6.6%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Valerenga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.6%
@ 1.89-5.4%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.81+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Unibet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.86
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Valerenga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
@ 5.46-7.9%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.11+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
Betano
5.50
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Valerenga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 13.25-5.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.38
0.69
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.78
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.95
0.14
0.71
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Valerenga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valerenga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
0.88
0.75
0.86
1.36
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.91
0.92
0.77
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
2.00
-
-
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.5%
@ 1.11-5.5%
Under 0.5
21.5%
@ 5.83+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.70
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.6%
@ 1.59-10.8%
Under 1.5
52.4%
@ 2.23+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
William Hil
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.6%
@ 2.79-13.7%
Under 2.5
80.4%
@ 1.40+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
William Hil
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.2%
@ 1.39-10.8%
Under
43.8%
@ 2.81+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Under
Betano
2.82
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.5%
@ 2.81-9.4%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.38+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.84
Betano
2.77
1xBet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 6.73-8.2%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.08+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Valerenga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.3%
@ 1.59-9.8%
Under
51.7%
@ 2.21+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Under
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
Valerenga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.2%
@ 3.94-6.3%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.21+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Valerenga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
@ 9.58-6.5%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.2%
Under 7.5
98.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+6.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
+4.1%
Under 6.5
94.9%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+4.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+8.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.11
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+7.9%
Under 5.5
88.3%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
+4.8%
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-
+4.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
86.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
+3.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.18
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+8.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
85.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+1.3%
Under 5.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.3%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+5.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+6.3%
Over 1.5
82.4%
1.09
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.09
-2.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.7%
1.22
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
-
+5.8%
Over 19.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
William Hil
1.36
+13.7%
Over 8.5 corners
79.3%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.11
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.09
-
-5.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.38
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
-
+9.4%
Under 4.5
76.3%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.30
+5.5%
Home or Away
76.0%
1.23
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-0.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
74.4%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
-2.6%
Home or Draw
74.0%
1.31
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
SBO
1.32
+2.8%
Home +1 handicap
74.0%
1.31
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.28
+5.5%
Under 4.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
+1.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
-6.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Karlsbakk33%
Sondre Sörli17%
Andreas Hansen17%
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen11%
Aimar Sher6%
Sander Christiansen6%
Claus Niyukuri6%
Anders Hiim6%
Jo Inge Berget0%
Bjorn Utvik0%
Sigurd Rosted0%
Menno Koch0%
Marius Lode0%
Olaus Skarsem0%
Magnar Odegaard0%
Eirik Wichne0%
Noa Williams0%
Leander Øy0%
Mamour Ndiaye0%
Michael Opoku0%
Camil Mmaee0%
Bop Guèye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mamour Ndiaye40%
Bjorn Utvik24%
Menno Koch22%
Olaus Skarsem17%
Jo Inge Berget12%
Aimar Sher12%
Sander Christiansen12%
Claus Niyukuri12%
Magnar Odegaard11%
Daniel Karlsbakk11%
Anders Hiim11%
Eirik Wichne6%
Sondre Sörli6%
Sigurd Rosted0%
Marius Lode0%
Noa Williams0%
Leander Øy0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen0%
Michael Opoku0%
Camil Mmaee0%
Bop Guèye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Claus Niyukuri24%
Sondre Sörli17%
Michael Opoku17%
Sander Christiansen6%
Bjorn Utvik6%
Noa Williams6%
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen6%
Jo Inge Berget0%
Sigurd Rosted0%
Menno Koch0%
Marius Lode0%
Olaus Skarsem0%
Aimar Sher0%
Magnar Odegaard0%
Eirik Wichne0%
Daniel Karlsbakk0%
Leander Øy0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Anders Hiim0%
Mamour Ndiaye0%
Camil Mmaee0%
Bop Guèye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Karlsbakk17%
Michael Opoku17%
Aimar Sher6%
Bjorn Utvik6%
Sondre Sörli6%
Andreas Hansen6%
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen6%
Jo Inge Berget0%
Sigurd Rosted0%
Menno Koch0%
Marius Lode0%
Olaus Skarsem0%
Magnar Odegaard0%
Eirik Wichne0%
Noa Williams0%
Sander Christiansen0%
Claus Niyukuri0%
Leander Øy0%
Anders Hiim0%
Mamour Ndiaye0%
Camil Mmaee0%
Bop Guèye0%
Valerenga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lucas Haren41%
Carl Lange33%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Filip Thorvaldsen17%
Elias Sørensen10%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Henrik Bjørdal6%
Ivan Näsberg6%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Kolbeinn Finnsson0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Ambina Fidèle Brice0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Ole Christian Saeter0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aaron Kiil Olsen31%
Kolbeinn Finnsson29%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Ambina Fidèle Brice21%
Ivan Näsberg19%
Carl Lange17%
Ole Christian Saeter17%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad14%
Sebastian Jarl14%
Henrik Bjørdal12%
Hakon Sjatil12%
Magnus Westergaard11%
Kevin Tshiembe10%
Elias Sørensen10%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Lucas Haren6%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Petter Strand0%
Mohamed Ofkir0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kolbeinn Finnsson29%
Henrik Bjørdal25%
Mathias Grundetjern22%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Ole Christian Saeter17%
Gabriel Rajkovic9%
Filip Thorvaldsen8%
Ambina Fidèle Brice7%
Lucas Haren6%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Carl Lange6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Ivan Näsberg0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Grundetjern33%
Filip Thorvaldsen25%
Elias Sørensen20%
Mohamed Ofkir17%
Henrik Bjørdal12%
Lucas Haren12%
Carl Lange11%
Magnus Westergaard6%
Petter Strand6%
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad0%
Sebastian Jarl0%
Oscar Hedvall0%
Kevin Tshiembe0%
Kolbeinn Finnsson0%
Ivan Näsberg0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Ambina Fidèle Brice0%
Hakon Sjatil0%
Ole Christian Saeter0%
Aaron Kiil Olsen0%
Gabriel Rajkovic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (27)
€47m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (25)
€27m
ROS (23)
€23m
S0F (24)
€16m
VAL (22)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
TRO (22)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (23)
€12m
HAM (24)
€10m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga have a similar squad value (both €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (10)
€11m
ROS (8)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
AAL (7)
€5m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
SAN (8)
€4m
TRO (6)
€4m
HAM (10)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack is €3m more valuable than Valerenga's (€9m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
HAM (6)
€3m
TRO (5)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Sarpsborg 08 FF's midfield is €2m less valuable than Valerenga's (€3m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
VIK (12)
€15m
MOL (11)
€15m
ROS (11)
€9m
BRA (11)
€9m
TRO (11)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
VAL (9)
€5m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
HAM (8)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence is €1m less valuable than Valerenga's (€4m vs €5m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Molde
Brann
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
Ham-Kam
Sandefjord
KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
Start