SC Freiburg’s recent three-game winning streak and a 4-1 triumph over Werder Bremen set the tone for a high-scoring outing, while Borussia Mönchengladbach’s return from a 0-3 loss to RB Leipzig suggests defensive frailties. The model favours a home win, with a 57% chance, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 20% chance of an away win. The expected total goals sit at 3.2, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.6% probability. Freiburg’s home form shows an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Mönchengladbach’s away form averages 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9% with a 6% edge), Under 7.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.9% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.7% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (94.7% with a 1% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.6% with a 5% edge), and Home +2 handicap (92.6% with a 6% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SC Freiburg win
57.4%
Avg Implied 50.8% · @ 1.85
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
SBO
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Draw
23.0%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.81
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.07
Marathonbet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.91
Dafabet
3.90
Betano
3.85
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
19.6%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.85
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.12
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.97
Dafabet
3.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SC Freiburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.43
2.31
1.19
1.00
1.71
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
2.60
3.00
2.33
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.50
1.23
2.00
0.92
0.90
1.60
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Mönchengladbach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.43
1.00
1.06
1.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.36
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.7%
@ 1.19+4.8%
Under 1.5
16.3%
@ 4.43-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Under
Unibet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.63+3.3%
Under 2.5
38.3%
@ 2.29-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.36
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.4%
@ 2.51+2.0%
Under 3.5
60.6%
@ 1.50-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Both teams to score
Yes
60.2%
@ 1.56+0.4%
No
39.8%
@ 2.31-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
Betfair
2.40
William Hil
2.38
1xBet
2.30
Unibet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%@ 6.98+4.1%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.61+3.9%
2-0
8.7%@ 9.80+4.0%
1-0
7.5%@ 8.47+2.1%
3-1
6.7%@ 12.40+3.0%
3-0
5.9%@ 15.38+2.9%
2-2
5.6%@ 11.58+1.7%
1-2
5.5%@ 11.68+1.6%
SC Freiburg goals ↓
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.5%
11%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.9%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.9%
6.7%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.0%
3.4%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Freiburg goals (down), columns = Borussia Mönchengladbach goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
SC Freiburg is 0.26 points better than Borussia Mönchengladbach in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
SC Freiburg is 0.26 goals better than Borussia Mönchengladbach in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
SC Freiburg is 0.12 goals worse than Borussia Mönchengladbach in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
SC Freiburg is 1.3 percentage points better than Borussia Mönchengladbach in terms of average possession (48% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Freiburg
For 3.1 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Borussia Mönchengladbach
For 2.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Freiburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.4
8.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.9
21.4
24.5
vs Stronger (8)
7.0
7.2
6.8
3.6
4.8
2.5
21.0
19.5
22.5
vs Similar (37)
8.9
8.6
9.2
3.7
3.4
4.1
23.6
22.2
25.2
vs Weaker (5)
8.2
9.0
7.5
2.6
3.0
2.3
20.0
18.0
22.0
% over line
39%
32%
46%
52%
44%
60%
57%
44%
71%
% under line
61%
68%
54%
48%
56%
40%
43%
56%
29%
This opponent (Borussia Mönchengladbach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.2
10.0
3.7
3.5
3.8
20.4
19.1
21.7
vs Stronger (12)
9.4
7.8
10.6
3.8
4.0
3.7
20.2
19.2
20.9
vs Similar (38)
9.1
8.4
9.8
3.6
3.4
3.8
20.5
19.1
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
38%
48%
44%
48%
40%
43%
33%
52%
% under line
57%
62%
52%
56%
52%
60%
57%
67%
48%
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.2%
@ 1.81-3.7%
Under 9.5
52.8%
@ 1.87+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.81
Under
Unibet
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
41.3%
Under 21.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SC Freiburg or Draw
81.3%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.25
Edge
+6.0%
57%
23%
20%
covers SC Freiburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
SC Freiburg or Borussia Mönchengladbach
78.1%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.24
Edge
+2.2%
57%
23%
20%
covers SC Freiburg + Borussia Mönchengladbach
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Borussia Mönchengladbach
40.6%
Avg Implied 48.8% · @ 1.93
Edge
-8.2%
57%
23%
20%
covers Draw + Borussia Mönchengladbach
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.97
SBO
1.92
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
@ 1.12+5.9%
Under
11.4%
@ 5.35-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.20
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5
Over
63.8%
@ 1.70+8.8%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.08-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
Under
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5
Over
36.9%
@ 3.20+7.7%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.32-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.18
Marathonbet
3.18
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
SC Freiburg over/under 3.5
Over
17.5%
@ 6.70+3.6%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.08-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.55
Unibet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 0.5
Over
68.7%
@ 1.34-0.5%
Under
31.3%
@ 3.02+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.08
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 1.5
Over
32.4%
@ 2.69-2.4%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.43+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
1xBet
2.74
Unibet
2.70
Under
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
@ 6.56-3.0%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.09+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
Unibet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
@ 15.88-3.0%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SC Freiburg, so a minus line means SC Freiburg give that many goals of a start and Borussia Mönchengladbach receive them. At -1, SC Freiburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SC Freiburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SC Freiburg)
SC Freiburg -2
19.6%
@ 6.12+5.0%
Draw -2
18.1%
@ 5.18+0.9%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +2
62.3%
@ 1.31-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.55
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (SC Freiburg)
SC Freiburg -1
37.7%
@ 3.12+8.9%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.70-2.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +1
40.6%
@ 1.91-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Draw
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Away
Marathonbet
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (SC Freiburg)
SC Freiburg +1
81.3%
@ 1.25+9.2%
Draw +1
11.2%
@ 5.41-5.4%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -1
7.4%
@ 8.02-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Marathonbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Away
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
10Bet
7.00
Handicap +2 (SC Freiburg)
SC Freiburg +2
92.6%
@ 1.06+6.1%
Draw +2
5.2%
@ 10.38-3.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -2
2.3%
@ 19.50-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Unibet
17.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Freiburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.12
0.50
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.32
1.08
0.33
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Mönchengladbach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.79
0.43
0.38
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.62
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.82
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.5%
@ 1.29+1.0%
Under 0.5
26.5%
@ 3.41-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.1%
@ 2.39-3.1%
Under 1.5
63.9%
@ 1.54+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Under
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 5.40-2.3%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.13+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.4%
@ 1.68-2.1%
Under
46.6%
@ 2.09+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Unibet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Betano
2.05
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.8%
@ 4.31-1.7%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.18+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.30
Unibet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
@ 9.75-5.5%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.7%
@ 2.24-3.8%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.59+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.27
Unibet
2.25
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Under
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.2%
@ 7.26-4.5%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.06+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
@ 12.50-6.3%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Freiburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
1.19
0.69
0.64
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.40
1.67
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.91
0.92
0.58
0.50
1.30
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Mönchengladbach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.64
0.57
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.25
0.75
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.55
0.80
0.50
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.6%
@ 1.17+3.5%
Under 0.5
16.4%
@ 4.70-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.70
10Bet
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.1%
@ 1.83+0.8%
Under 1.5
47.9%
@ 1.93-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
10Bet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.6%
@ 3.59-2.4%
Under 2.5
76.4%
@ 1.26+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
10Bet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.2%
@ 1.45+1.0%
Under
34.8%
@ 2.60-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Under
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.60
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.0%
@ 3.15-2.5%
Under
73.0%
@ 1.31+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.28
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.4%
@ 7.60-4.8%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.05+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.3%
@ 1.87-3.4%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.85+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.82
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.8%
@ 5.21-4.0%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.12+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.40
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
@ 10.75-4.4%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
Under 6.5
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+0.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+4.8%
Home +2 handicap
92.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
+6.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+4.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
+3.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
88.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+5.9%
Under 5.5
87.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-0.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+4.0%
Under 25.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+2.3%
Under 5.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.7%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
+4.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+3.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
82.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-3.6%
Home or Draw
81.3%
1.25
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+6.0%
Home +1 handicap
81.3%
1.25
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.17
+9.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.2%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.16
+1.7%
Home or Away
78.1%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+2.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+2.4%
Under 11.5 corners
75.7%
1.33
Unibet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Under 4.5
75.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-3.1%
Under 23.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.28
+1.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.0%
1.31
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
10Bet
1.28
-
+2.5%
Under 4.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Freiburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Igor Matanović75%
Keisuke Goto50%
Lucas Höler33%
Jordy Makengo33%
Matthias Ginter25%
Yuito Suzuki25%
Derry Scherhant25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan-Niklas Beste33%
Yuito Suzuki25%
Keisuke Goto25%
Matthias Ginter0%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Igor Matanović0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Derry Scherhant0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Cyriaque Irié0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Igor Matanović75%
Derry Scherhant50%
Jan-Niklas Beste33%
Vincenzo Grifo33%
Matthias Ginter25%
Maximilian Eggestein25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Yuito Suzuki0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keisuke Goto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yuito Suzuki50%
Matthias Ginter25%
Igor Matanović25%
Derry Scherhant25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keisuke Goto0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Haris Tabaković37%
Robin Hack22%
Oscar Fraulo20%
Kevin Diks15%
Shuto Machino12%
Wael Mohya12%
Grant-Leon Ranos10%
Hugo Bolin8%
Jens Castrop7%
Franck Honorat6%
Philipp Sander6%
Yannik Engelhardt6%
Joseph Scally6%
Nico Elvedi6%
Giovanni Reyna5%
Kevin Stöger3%
Marvin Friedrich0%
Moritz Nicolas0%
Florian Neuhaus0%
Tim Kleindienst0%
Luca Netz0%
Rocco Reitz0%
Fabio Chiarodia0%
Lukas Ullrich0%
Kota Takai0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Jan Urbich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yannik Engelhardt24%
Rocco Reitz24%
Joseph Scally23%
Kevin Diks18%
Haris Tabaković14%
Nico Elvedi14%
Philipp Sander12%
Kota Takai12%
Luca Netz12%
Robin Hack11%
Grant-Leon Ranos10%
Kevin Stöger9%
Lukas Ullrich8%
Jens Castrop7%
Fabio Chiarodia6%
Shuto Machino6%
Wael Mohya6%
Giovanni Reyna5%
Moritz Nicolas3%
Franck Honorat0%
Marvin Friedrich0%
Florian Neuhaus0%
Tim Kleindienst0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Hugo Bolin0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Jan Urbich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Franck Honorat29%
Luca Netz12%
Rocco Reitz12%
Kevin Stöger9%
Haris Tabaković9%
Hugo Bolin8%
Yannik Engelhardt6%
Wael Mohya6%
Joseph Scally6%
Florian Neuhaus6%
Jens Castrop4%
Shuto Machino3%
Nico Elvedi3%
Robin Hack0%
Marvin Friedrich0%
Philipp Sander0%
Moritz Nicolas0%
Tim Kleindienst0%
Kevin Diks0%
Giovanni Reyna0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Grant-Leon Ranos0%
Fabio Chiarodia0%
Lukas Ullrich0%
Kota Takai0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Jan Urbich0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Haris Tabaković29%
Robin Hack22%
Jens Castrop14%
Florian Neuhaus11%
Grant-Leon Ranos10%
Philipp Sander9%
Kevin Stöger9%
Rocco Reitz9%
Shuto Machino6%
Kevin Diks3%
Yannik Engelhardt3%
Joseph Scally3%
Nico Elvedi0%
Franck Honorat0%
Marvin Friedrich0%
Moritz Nicolas0%
Tim Kleindienst0%
Giovanni Reyna0%
Luca Netz0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Fabio Chiarodia0%
Lukas Ullrich0%
Hugo Bolin0%
Kota Takai0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Jan Urbich0%
Wael Mohya0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
SC Freiburg's squad is €114m more valuable than Borussia Mönchengladbach's (€243m vs €129m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
SC Freiburg's attack is €38m more valuable than Borussia Mönchengladbach's (€96m vs €58m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
SC Freiburg's midfield is €15m more valuable than Borussia Mönchengladbach's (€36m vs €22m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SC Freiburg's defence is €61m more valuable than Borussia Mönchengladbach's (€110m vs €49m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart