This opponent (VfL Wolfsburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfL Wolfsburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.50
1.19
1.38
1.29
1.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.86
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.69
1.20
1.60
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.71
1.67
0.33
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.4%
@ 2.03+6.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
@ 1.80-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
7.0%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.6%
SC Freiburg goals ↓
VfL Wolfsburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.1%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.5%
13%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.4%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.2%
5.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Freiburg goals (down), columns = VfL Wolfsburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.26
Borussia Dortmund
2.03
Bayer Leverkusen
1.88
RB Leipzig
1.71
Union Berlin
1.68
SC Freiburg
1.62
1. FC Köln
1.53
FSV Mainz 05
1.35
1899 Hoffenheim
1.35
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.32
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.24
VfL Wolfsburg
1.24
VfL Bochum
1.24
FC Augsburg
1.12
Hertha BSC
0.97
VfB Stuttgart
0.97
Arminia Bielefeld
0.82
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0.53
SC Freiburg is 0.38 points better than VfL Wolfsburg in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
2.85
Borussia Dortmund
2.50
Bayer Leverkusen
2.35
RB Leipzig
2.12
1899 Hoffenheim
1.71
SC Freiburg
1.71
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.59
1. FC Köln
1.53
Union Berlin
1.47
FSV Mainz 05
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.32
VfL Wolfsburg
1.26
VfB Stuttgart
1.21
FC Augsburg
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.12
Hertha BSC
1.09
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0.82
Arminia Bielefeld
0.79
SC Freiburg is 0.44 goals better than VfL Wolfsburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bayern München
1.09
RB Leipzig
1.09
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.32
SC Freiburg
1.35
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
1. FC Köln
1.44
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.44
VfL Bochum
1.53
Borussia Dortmund
1.53
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
VfL Wolfsburg
1.59
FC Augsburg
1.65
VfB Stuttgart
1.74
1899 Hoffenheim
1.76
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.79
Hertha BSC
2.09
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2.41
SC Freiburg is 0.24 goals better than VfL Wolfsburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Freiburg
For 4.8 · Against 6.8 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 9.6 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VfL Wolfsburg
For 3.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Freiburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.5
3.2
3.4
3.1
24.9
24.8
25.1
vs Stronger (11)
9.6
8.7
10.8
3.0
3.7
2.2
21.5
23.2
19.6
vs Similar (27)
9.0
9.0
8.9
3.2
3.7
2.8
26.9
26.4
27.4
vs Weaker (12)
10.2
10.7
9.7
3.5
2.3
4.7
23.6
23.0
24.2
% over line
50%
48%
52%
36%
36%
36%
82%
88%
76%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
64%
64%
64%
18%
12%
24%
This opponent (VfL Wolfsburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfL Wolfsburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.4
9.6
4.1
4.3
3.8
25.6
25.0
26.1
vs Stronger (12)
11.8
12.6
11.1
4.5
5.2
4.0
24.5
24.4
24.6
vs Similar (29)
10.0
10.8
9.1
4.0
4.2
3.8
25.7
25.7
25.7
vs Weaker (9)
7.7
6.2
8.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
26.6
23.2
29.2
% over line
54%
56%
52%
56%
56%
56%
82%
80%
84%
% under line
46%
44%
48%
44%
44%
44%
18%
20%
16%
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Eintracht Frankfurt
10.7
Bayern München
10.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
10.2
VfL Wolfsburg
10.0
Hertha BSC
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.7
1899 Hoffenheim
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Arminia Bielefeld
9.5
VfL Bochum
9.5
1. FC Köln
9.5
SC Freiburg
9.4
Borussia Dortmund
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.0
RB Leipzig
8.9
VfB Stuttgart
8.9
Union Berlin
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4.2
FSV Mainz 05
4.1
VfL Wolfsburg
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
4.0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.0
FC Augsburg
3.8
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
VfB Stuttgart
3.7
Hertha BSC
3.7
Arminia Bielefeld
3.6
1. FC Köln
3.6
1899 Hoffenheim
3.6
Bayer Leverkusen
3.6
Union Berlin
3.5
VfL Bochum
3.5
RB Leipzig
3.4
SC Freiburg
3.2
Bayern München
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
27.1
FSV Mainz 05
26.6
Hertha BSC
26.0
VfL Bochum
25.8
VfL Wolfsburg
25.6
1. FC Köln
25.2
SC Freiburg
24.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
24.5
RB Leipzig
24.5
VfB Stuttgart
24.5
1899 Hoffenheim
24.2
FC Augsburg
23.9
Arminia Bielefeld
23.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
23.3
Union Berlin
23.2
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
Bayer Leverkusen
21.9
Bayern München
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.6%
Under 9.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.4%
Under 21.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Freiburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
0.86
0.64
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.62
0.71
0.86
1.56
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.29
1.33
0.00
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (VfL Wolfsburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfL Wolfsburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.56
0.62
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.69
0.60
0.70
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.29
0.67
0.33
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VfL Wolfsburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VfL Wolfsburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VfL Wolfsburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Freiburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.31
0.57
0.14
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.00
1.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (VfL Wolfsburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VfL Wolfsburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.62
0.75
0.64
1.21
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (16)
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.90
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VfL Wolfsburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VfL Wolfsburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VfL Wolfsburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Freiburg · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Igor Matanović75%
Keisuke Goto50%
Lucas Höler33%
Jordy Makengo33%
Matthias Ginter25%
Yuito Suzuki25%
Derry Scherhant25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan-Niklas Beste33%
Yuito Suzuki25%
Keisuke Goto25%
Matthias Ginter0%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Igor Matanović0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Derry Scherhant0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Cyriaque Irié0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Igor Matanović75%
Derry Scherhant50%
Jan-Niklas Beste33%
Vincenzo Grifo33%
Matthias Ginter25%
Maximilian Eggestein25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Yuito Suzuki0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keisuke Goto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yuito Suzuki50%
Matthias Ginter25%
Igor Matanović25%
Derry Scherhant25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keisuke Goto0%
VfL Wolfsburg · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Hauke Wahl50%
Fabian Reese50%
Maximilian Arnold33%
Vinícius Souza25%
Joakim Mæhle0%
Robert Glatzel0%
Yannick Gerhardt0%
Elvis Rexhbeçaj0%
Mattias Svanberg0%
Kilian Fischer0%
Alessio Besio0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Saël Kumbedi0%
Kento Shiogai0%
Jakub Zieliński0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Souza75%
Kilian Fischer25%
Joakim Mæhle0%
Robert Glatzel0%
Hauke Wahl0%
Fabian Reese0%
Yannick Gerhardt0%
Maximilian Arnold0%
Elvis Rexhbeçaj0%
Mattias Svanberg0%
Alessio Besio0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Saël Kumbedi0%
Kento Shiogai0%
Jakub Zieliński0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joakim Mæhle33%
Robert Glatzel33%
Alessio Besio33%
Fabian Reese25%
Vinícius Souza0%
Hauke Wahl0%
Yannick Gerhardt0%
Maximilian Arnold0%
Elvis Rexhbeçaj0%
Mattias Svanberg0%
Kilian Fischer0%
Muhammed Damar0%
Saël Kumbedi0%
Kento Shiogai0%
Jakub Zieliński0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fabian Reese75%
Muhammed Damar50%
Robert Glatzel33%
Joakim Mæhle0%
Vinícius Souza0%
Hauke Wahl0%
Yannick Gerhardt0%
Maximilian Arnold0%
Elvis Rexhbeçaj0%
Mattias Svanberg0%
Kilian Fischer0%
Alessio Besio0%
Saël Kumbedi0%
Kento Shiogai0%
Jakub Zieliński0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
VW (33)
€154m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
HB (24)
€25m
VB (24)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
SC Freiburg's squad is €88m more valuable than VfL Wolfsburg's (€243m vs €154m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
VW (10)
€56m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HB (8)
€8m
AB (8)
€7m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
SC Freiburg's attack is €40m more valuable than VfL Wolfsburg's (€96m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
VW (8)
€32m
UB (6)
€26m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
AB (5)
€4m
HB (6)
€3m
SC Freiburg's midfield is €5m more valuable than VfL Wolfsburg's (€36m vs €32m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
VW (15)
€66m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
HB (10)
€13m
SGF (10)
€9m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
SC Freiburg's defence is €44m more valuable than VfL Wolfsburg's (€110m vs €66m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
Bayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
1. FC Köln
FSV Mainz 05
1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Eintracht Frankfurt
VfL Bochum
FC Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
Hertha BSC
Arminia Bielefeld
SpVgg Greuther Fürth