SC Freiburg are the clear favourites to win the Bundesliga clash against Werder Bremen, with a 55% chance of victory versus 24% for a draw and 21% for a Bremen win. The model expects a high-scoring affair, averaging 3.1 goals, but the most probable total is two goals, a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.2% probability. Freiburg, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, have been scoring 1.83 goals per game while conceding only 0.92. Bremen, on the road, average 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2% with a 1% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.8% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.7% with a 4% edge), and Under 5.5 (90.8%). Freiburg’s recent form, a 2-game winning streak, contrasts with Bremen’s three-match losing run, setting the stage for a likely Freiburg triumph.
Results analysis
SC Freiburg’s 3-game winning run continued as they beat Werder Bremen 4-1, confirming the model’s home win pick and the expected outcome. The model had given Freiburg a 53% chance of victory, and the prediction proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.3%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.2%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.7%, and Under 5.5 hit at 90.8%. All eight selections settled in the model’s favour.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SC Freiburg win✓ Hit
53.2%
Avg Implied 50.4% · @ 1.88
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.92
Unibet
1.90
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.89
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.62
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Dafabet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Pinnacle
3.73
Werder Bremen win✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 4.03
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.38
1xBet
4.32
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SC Freiburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.43
2.19
1.19
1.00
1.71
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
2.60
3.00
2.33
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.23
1.83
0.92
0.90
1.60
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Werder Bremen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
1.07
1.67
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
2.43
0.33
2.33
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.43
1.25
1.50
1.18
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
@ 1.22+5.4%
Under 1.5
17.7%
@ 4.08-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.75+5.1%
Under 2.5
40.4%
@ 2.09-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
SBO
1.79
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
Under
1xBet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.14
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.2%
@ 2.79+3.4%
Under 3.5
62.8%
@ 1.42-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.88
888Sport
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
Pinnacle
2.84
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
@ 1.64+2.9%
No
40.0%
@ 2.18-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
888Sport
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
No
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 6.54+4.2%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.85+3.9%
2-0
8.3%@ 9.41+3.4%
1-0
7.7%@ 7.73+1.7%
3-1
6.2%@ 12.79+2.6%
1-2
6.1%@ 12.00+2.2%
2-2
5.8%@ 12.11+2.0%
0-0
5.6%@ 11.87+1.7%
SC Freiburg goals ↓
Werder Bremen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
4.4%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
1
7.7%
11%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.3%
6.2%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.5%
3.0%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Freiburg goals (down), columns = Werder Bremen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
SC Freiburg is 0.44 points better than Werder Bremen in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
SC Freiburg is 0.41 goals better than Werder Bremen in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
SC Freiburg is 0.09 goals better than Werder Bremen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.76).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
SC Freiburg is 3.1 percentage points worse than Werder Bremen in terms of average possession (48% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Freiburg
For 3.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Werder Bremen
For 4.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 9.3 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Freiburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.3
8.6
3.7
3.6
3.8
22.7
21.1
24.3
vs Stronger (8)
7.0
7.2
6.8
3.6
4.8
2.5
21.0
19.5
22.5
vs Similar (38)
8.8
8.4
9.1
3.7
3.4
4.1
23.4
21.8
24.9
vs Weaker (4)
8.2
9.0
7.5
3.2
3.0
3.5
20.0
18.0
22.0
% over line
36%
28%
44%
52%
44%
60%
54%
40%
68%
% under line
64%
72%
56%
48%
56%
40%
46%
60%
32%
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Werder Bremen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.5
10.4
4.5
4.6
4.5
20.5
21.0
20.0
vs Stronger (12)
10.0
8.2
11.3
4.1
3.8
4.3
18.6
19.2
18.1
vs Similar (38)
9.3
8.6
10.0
4.7
4.8
4.6
21.1
21.4
20.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
52%
64%
68%
64%
72%
44%
48%
40%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
32%
36%
28%
56%
52%
60%
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.6
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.1
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.8
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
SC Freiburg
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FC Augsburg
21.8
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
1. FC Köln
20.5
Werder Bremen
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.1%
@ 1.94-0.0%
Under 9.5
51.9%
@ 1.80+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.93
Under
Unibet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.0%
@ 1.77+1.3%
Under 3.5
46.0%
@ 1.98-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
32.5%
Under 21.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SC Freiburg or Draw✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
-1.2%
53%
24%
22%
covers SC Freiburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
SC Freiburg or Werder Bremen✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.0%
53%
24%
22%
covers SC Freiburg + Werder Bremen
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Draw or Werder Bremen✗ Miss
50.0%
Avg Implied 49.8% · @ 1.90
Edge
+0.2%
53%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Werder Bremen
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.0%
@ 1.15+3.1%
Under
16.0%
@ 4.88-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Betano
4.80
888Sport
4.80
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.7%
@ 1.80+2.7%
Under
45.3%
@ 1.95-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Betfair
1.95
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.8%
@ 3.53+1.4%
Under
72.2%
@ 1.27-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
888Sport
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
SC Freiburg over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
11.4%
@ 7.75-0.6%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.06+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.4%
@ 1.38+4.2%
Under
28.6%
@ 2.83-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Superbet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.92
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.88
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.5%
@ 2.88+3.2%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.38-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.13
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Under
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 7.25+0.3%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.07-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.60
888Sport
7.50
Under
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Werder Bremen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 18.31-1.4%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SC Freiburg, so a minus line means SC Freiburg give that many goals of a start and Werder Bremen receive them. At -1, SC Freiburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SC Freiburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SC Freiburg)Actual: SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg -2
13.0%
@ 6.62-0.5%
Draw -2
15.5%
@ 5.38-1.2%
Werder Bremen +2
71.4%
@ 1.29+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Draw
Superbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Handicap -1 (SC Freiburg)Actual: SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg -1
28.6%
@ 3.28+1.0%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.73-2.8%
Werder Bremen +1
50.0%
@ 1.88+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.20
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Unibet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.98
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Handicap +1 (SC Freiburg)Actual: SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg +1
75.0%
@ 1.25+2.2%
Draw +1
14.3%
@ 5.54-2.1%
Werder Bremen -1
10.7%
@ 8.35-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Superbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Handicap +2 (SC Freiburg)Actual: SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg +2
89.3%
@ 1.05+2.2%
Draw +2
7.2%
@ 11.00-1.1%
Werder Bremen -2
3.5%
@ 19.75-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Unibet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Freiburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
1.00
0.50
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.32
0.92
0.33
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Werder Bremen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.27
0.80
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.61
0.33
0.75
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.34+3.0%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.17-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.3%
@ 2.53-0.7%
Under 1.5
63.7%
@ 1.49+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
Betano
2.62
Superbet
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 6.12-0.3%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.10+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.7%
@ 1.75+3.4%
Under
43.3%
@ 2.00-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
18.8%
@ 4.61-1.3%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.16+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.70
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 12.25-2.5%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.6%
@ 2.33-2.2%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.54+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.34
Unibet
2.32
Under
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 7.62-2.4%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.05+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.50
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 20.50-3.1%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Freiburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
1.19
0.69
0.64
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.40
1.67
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.91
0.92
0.58
0.50
1.30
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Werder Bremen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Werder Bremen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.80
0.87
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.43
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.83
0.92
0.75
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.8%
@ 1.20+3.8%
Under 0.5
18.2%
@ 4.25-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.8%
@ 1.94-0.4%
Under 1.5
52.2%
@ 1.81+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
888Sport
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
William Hil
1.95
Under
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.5%
@ 3.93-3.4%
Under 2.5
79.5%
@ 1.23+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
888Sport
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.3%
@ 1.51-0.4%
Under
38.7%
@ 2.43+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Superbet
2.32
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
24.8%
@ 3.37-2.8%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.28+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.25
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 8.63-4.5%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.30
1xBet
9.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Werder Bremen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 1.95+1.1%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.78-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.88
Under
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Werder Bremen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 5.62-2.4%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.11+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
Superbet
5.40
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Werder Bremen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 14.62-3.8%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
888Sport
1.05
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
86.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.0%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.2%
1.16
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
1.25
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
-
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.1%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.23
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.28
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.25
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.0%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
1.28
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.25
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.0%
1.24
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Betano
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.0%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
1.32
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
-
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.34
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
72.2%
1.27
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
71.4%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+1.7%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
71.4%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+4.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Freiburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Igor Matanović75%
Keisuke Goto50%
Lucas Höler33%
Jordy Makengo33%
Matthias Ginter25%
Yuito Suzuki25%
Derry Scherhant25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan-Niklas Beste33%
Yuito Suzuki25%
Keisuke Goto25%
Matthias Ginter0%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Igor Matanović0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Derry Scherhant0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Cyriaque Irié0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Igor Matanović75%
Derry Scherhant50%
Jan-Niklas Beste33%
Vincenzo Grifo33%
Matthias Ginter25%
Maximilian Eggestein25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Yuito Suzuki0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keisuke Goto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yuito Suzuki50%
Matthias Ginter25%
Igor Matanović25%
Derry Scherhant25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keisuke Goto0%
Werder Bremen · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jens Stage31%
Jovan Milošević23%
Justin Njinmah15%
Salim Musah12%
Romano Schmid11%
Samuel Mbangula11%
Marco Grüll9%
Patrice Čović6%
Olivier Deman6%
Isaac Schmidt5%
Keke Topp5%
Karim Coulibaly4%
Cameron Puertas4%
Marco Friedl3%
Leonardo Bittencourt0%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Amos Pieper0%
Felix Agu0%
Yukinari Sugawara0%
Senne Lynen0%
Victor Okoh Boniface0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Niklas Stark40%
Leonardo Bittencourt33%
Marco Friedl32%
Julián Malatini27%
Olivier Deman24%
Cameron Puertas21%
Amos Pieper21%
Keke Topp19%
Jens Stage17%
Senne Lynen16%
Jovan Milošević15%
Karim Coulibaly15%
Marco Grüll15%
Romano Schmid11%
Isaac Schmidt11%
Victor Okoh Boniface9%
Felix Agu8%
Yukinari Sugawara6%
Patrice Čović6%
Justin Njinmah6%
Mio Backhaus3%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Samuel Mbangula0%
Salim Musah0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yukinari Sugawara19%
Victor Okoh Boniface18%
Romano Schmid17%
Olivier Deman12%
Jovan Milošević8%
Samuel Mbangula7%
Cameron Puertas7%
Jens Stage7%
Leonardo Bittencourt6%
Keke Topp5%
Marco Grüll3%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Amos Pieper0%
Marco Friedl0%
Felix Agu0%
Senne Lynen0%
Justin Njinmah0%
Isaac Schmidt0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Karim Coulibaly0%
Patrice Čović0%
Salim Musah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jens Stage17%
Justin Njinmah15%
Salim Musah12%
Romano Schmid11%
Victor Okoh Boniface9%
Cameron Puertas7%
Yukinari Sugawara6%
Marco Grüll3%
Leonardo Bittencourt0%
Maximilian Wöber0%
Niklas Stark0%
Olivier Deman0%
Amos Pieper0%
Marco Friedl0%
Felix Agu0%
Senne Lynen0%
Isaac Schmidt0%
Julián Malatini0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keke Topp0%
Samuel Mbangula0%
Jovan Milošević0%
Karim Coulibaly0%
Patrice Čović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
SC Freiburg's squad is €123m more valuable than Werder Bremen's (€243m vs €119m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
SC Freiburg's attack is €46m more valuable than Werder Bremen's (€96m vs €50m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
SC Freiburg's midfield is €8m more valuable than Werder Bremen's (€36m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SC Freiburg's defence is €69m more valuable than Werder Bremen's (€110m vs €41m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart