This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.70
0.93
1.40
1.40
2.00
vs Stronger (20)
1.00
1.85
1.00
1.27
1.00
2.56
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.40
0.75
1.75
2.00
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.5%
@ 1.58+7.6%
Under 2.5
32.5%
@ 2.36-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.9%
Under 3.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.1%
2-1 ✓
9.3%
3-0
8.6%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
7.1%
4-0
5.5%
4-1
5.1%
SC Paderborn 07 goals ↓
Ingolstadt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.1%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
1
7.1%
8.0%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
2
10%
9.3%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.6%
7.9%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
5.5%
5.1%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Paderborn 07 goals (down), columns = Ingolstadt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Schalke 04
1.91
Werder Bremen
1.85
Hamburger SV
1.76
SV Darmstadt 98
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.68
1. FC Heidenheim
1.53
SC Paderborn 07
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Holstein Kiel
1.32
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Hannover 96
1.24
Karlsruher SC
1.21
Hansa Rostock
1.21
SV Sandhausen
1.21
Regensburg
1.18
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
Erzgebirge Aue
0.76
Ingolstadt
0.62
SC Paderborn 07 is 0.88 points better than Ingolstadt in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Schalke 04
2.12
SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hamburger SV
1.97
Werder Bremen
1.91
FC St. Pauli
1.79
SC Paderborn 07
1.65
Karlsruher SC
1.59
Regensburg
1.47
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Holstein Kiel
1.35
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.24
Hansa Rostock
1.21
Hannover 96
1.03
Dynamo Dresden
0.97
Erzgebirge Aue
0.94
Ingolstadt
0.88
SC Paderborn 07 is 0.76 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamburger SV
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.24
Werder Bremen
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.29
FC Schalke 04
1.29
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.35
SV Darmstadt 98
1.35
Dynamo Dresden
1.35
Hannover 96
1.44
1. FC Nürnberg
1.44
Regensburg
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.53
Holstein Kiel
1.59
SV Sandhausen
1.59
Karlsruher SC
1.62
Ingolstadt
1.91
Erzgebirge Aue
2.12
SC Paderborn 07 is 0.62 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.91).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Paderborn 07
For 4.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
For 3.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Paderborn 07
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.9
4.4
4.7
4.0
24.0
25.0
23.1
vs Stronger (1)
8.0
-
8.0
1.0
-
1.0
16.0
-
16.0
vs Similar (37)
9.9
9.4
10.4
4.5
4.9
4.1
24.0
24.5
23.4
vs Weaker (12)
8.1
7.5
8.7
4.2
4.0
4.3
24.9
26.5
23.3
% over line
36%
32%
40%
60%
60%
60%
68%
72%
64%
% under line
64%
68%
60%
40%
40%
40%
32%
28%
36%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.8
9.3
4.0
3.8
4.2
28.2
28.6
27.8
vs Stronger (33)
10.4
11.2
9.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
27.7
27.6
27.7
vs Similar (17)
9.4
9.7
9.1
3.5
2.6
4.1
29.2
31.1
27.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
52%
48%
54%
52%
56%
82%
92%
72%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
46%
48%
44%
18%
8%
28%
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamburger SV
11.4
SV Sandhausen
11.1
1. FC Heidenheim
10.6
Karlsruher SC
10.3
SV Darmstadt 98
10.1
Ingolstadt
10.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
9.8
1. FC Nürnberg
9.8
Holstein Kiel
9.7
Hannover 96
9.6
FC Schalke 04
9.5
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
SC Paderborn 07
9.4
Regensburg
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.2
Werder Bremen
8.9
Erzgebirge Aue
8.9
Hansa Rostock
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Darmstadt 98
4.8
SV Sandhausen
4.7
Werder Bremen
4.6
Regensburg
4.5
Karlsruher SC
4.5
Dynamo Dresden
4.5
Hamburger SV
4.4
Hansa Rostock
4.4
SC Paderborn 07
4.4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.4
1. FC Nürnberg
4.3
Erzgebirge Aue
4.3
FC Schalke 04
4.2
Ingolstadt
4.0
FC St. Pauli
4.0
Holstein Kiel
4.0
Hannover 96
3.9
1. FC Heidenheim
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ingolstadt
28.2
Regensburg
28.2
Karlsruher SC
26.2
SV Sandhausen
25.8
FC St. Pauli
25.7
SV Darmstadt 98
25.6
Hamburger SV
25.5
Werder Bremen
25.4
1. FC Nürnberg
24.6
Hannover 96
24.5
Dynamo Dresden
24.3
Erzgebirge Aue
24.2
FC Schalke 04
24.1
SC Paderborn 07
24.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.8
Hansa Rostock
23.8
Holstein Kiel
22.7
1. FC Heidenheim
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.6%
Under 9.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.3%
Under 3.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.4%
Under 21.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Paderborn 07
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
0.88
0.69
1.57
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.55
0.92
0.67
1.40
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.62
0.75
0.75
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (20)
0.35
0.65
0.55
0.36
0.11
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.30
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Paderborn 07
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.81
0.88
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.86
0.83
1.08
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
0.75
0.25
1.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.17
0.40
1.00
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
1.20
0.45
0.91
0.89
1.56
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.10
0.25
1.25
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
71.8%
1.48
-
-
-
-
-
+8.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Paderborn 07 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Filip Bilbija39%
Adriano Grimaldi25%
Lucas Copado25%
Marcel Hoffmeier20%
Laurin Curda19%
Stefano Marino19%
Sebastian Klaas17%
Sven Michel13%
Mika Baur11%
Steffen Tigges9%
Kennedy Okpala8%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Raphael Obermair7%
Nick Bätzner6%
Tjark Lasse Scheller6%
Luis Engelns5%
Felix Götze3%
David Kinsombi0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Ruben Müller0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcel Hoffmeier40%
Kennedy Okpala33%
Laurin Curda22%
Mattes Hansen21%
Sven Michel20%
Marco Wörner20%
Santiago Castañeda18%
Raphael Obermair17%
Mika Baur17%
Ruben Müller17%
Filip Bilbija15%
Tjark Lasse Scheller14%
Felix Götze12%
Nick Bätzner12%
Luis Engelns11%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Stefano Marino6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Jonah Sticker4%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Lucas Copado0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raphael Obermair30%
Laurin Curda19%
Mika Baur14%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Sebastian Klaas10%
Filip Bilbija9%
Ruben Müller8%
Felix Götze6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Nick Bätzner6%
Sven Michel3%
Stefano Marino3%
Mattes Hansen3%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stefano Marino23%
Laurin Curda19%
Steffen Tigges18%
Filip Bilbija15%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Raphael Obermair10%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Sven Michel7%
Mika Baur6%
Nick Bätzner3%
Santiago Castañeda3%
David Kinsombi0%
Felix Götze0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Ruben Müller0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
FSP (27)
€46m
SP0 (33)
€43m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
DD (26)
€19m
FD (26)
€10m
HR (27)
€8m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
SC Paderborn 07's squad is €36m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€43m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (13)
€50m
HS (11)
€46m
FS0 (8)
€17m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
SP0 (11)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
DD (8)
€6m
HR (10)
€3m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
SC Paderborn 07's attack is €11m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€14m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
FS0 (8)
€24m
SP0 (13)
€18m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
HR (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
SC Paderborn 07's midfield is €17m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€18m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
FD (13)
€5m
HR (13)
€3m
ING (12)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
SC Paderborn 07's defence is €8m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€11m vs €3m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Schalke 04
Werder Bremen
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hannover 96
Karlsruher SC
Hansa Rostock
SV Sandhausen
Dynamo Dresden
Erzgebirge Aue