SC Freiburg’s recent 4-1 win over Motherwell and a two-game winning streak give them a clear edge, yet the model still favors an away victory. The probability spread shows a 44% chance for Freiburg to win, 30% for Paderborn to win, and 25% for a draw. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most likely total goal count being 2, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Paderborn’s home form is solid, conceding only one goal on average against weaker opposition, while Freiburg’s away attack averages 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks highlight a very low chance of high scoring: Home under 2.5 HT goals97.6% (edge 6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals97.6% (edge 8%), Under 7.597.6%, Under 6.594.0%, Home under 3.5 goals93.8% (edge 2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals93.7% (edge 4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals92.9% (edge 1%), and Home under 1.5 HT goals91.5% (edge 7%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 win
30.9%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.42
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.64
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
Pinnacle
3.55
Betano
3.50
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.65
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
1xBet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Marathonbet
3.74
Dafabet
3.70
SC Freiburg win
44.0%
Avg Implied 46.7% · @ 2.02
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.09
Dafabet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
2.03
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SC Paderborn 07
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
2.14
1.79
1.31
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.69
1.41
2.15
1.85
1.31
1.06
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Freiburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.43
2.31
1.19
1.00
1.71
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
2.60
3.00
2.33
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.50
1.23
2.00
0.92
0.90
1.60
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.3%
@ 1.20+5.7%
Under 1.5
15.7%
@ 4.40-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Unibet
4.60
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.30
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.7%
@ 1.66+5.5%
Under 2.5
37.3%
@ 2.23-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.28
SBO
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.5%
@ 2.60+4.4%
Under 3.5
59.5%
@ 1.47-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Both teams to score
Yes
64.8%
@ 1.56+5.1%
No
35.2%
@ 2.31-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
Unibet
2.38
William Hil
2.38
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 6.70+4.4%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.90+3.2%
2-1
7.5%@ 10.58+3.1%
2-2
6.6%@ 11.34+2.6%
0-2
6.2%@ 10.53+1.8%
0-1
6.0%@ 8.92+0.8%
1-3
5.3%@ 13.02+1.8%
0-0
5.0%@ 12.74+1.3%
SC Paderborn 07 goals ↓
SC Freiburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
6.0%
6.2%
3.7%
1.6%
1
4.7%
11%
9.0%
5.3%
2.4%
2
4.2%
7.5%
6.6%
3.9%
1.7%
3
2.1%
3.6%
3.2%
1.9%
0.8%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Paderborn 07 goals (down), columns = SC Freiburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
SC Paderborn 07 is 0.38 points worse than SC Freiburg in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
SC Paderborn 07 is 1.00 goals worse than SC Freiburg in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
SC Paderborn 07 is 1.18 goals better than SC Freiburg in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
SC Paderborn 07 is 4.0 percentage points better than SC Freiburg in terms of average possession (52% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Paderborn 07
For 5.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.2 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Freiburg
For 3.1 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Paderborn 07
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.0
9.0
4.5
4.1
4.9
24.2
23.0
25.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
9.8
10.9
8.6
4.6
4.0
5.1
23.7
23.2
24.3
vs Weaker (4)
12.2
13.0
12.0
3.8
5.0
3.3
29.5
19.0
33.0
% over line
58%
71%
46%
70%
58%
81%
66%
54%
77%
% under line
42%
29%
54%
30%
42%
19%
34%
46%
23%
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Freiburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.4
8.6
3.6
3.5
3.8
22.9
21.4
24.5
vs Stronger (8)
7.0
7.2
6.8
3.6
4.8
2.5
21.0
19.5
22.5
vs Similar (38)
8.8
8.6
9.2
3.7
3.3
4.1
23.6
22.1
25.2
vs Weaker (4)
8.2
9.0
7.5
3.2
3.0
3.5
20.0
18.0
22.0
% over line
38%
31%
46%
52%
42%
62%
56%
42%
71%
% under line
62%
69%
54%
48%
58%
38%
44%
58%
29%
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.6%
@ 2.04+7.0%
Under 9.5
47.4%
@ 1.71-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
1.98
Under
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.1%
@ 1.79-3.3%
Under 3.5
50.9%
@ 1.97+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
42.8%
@ 2.00-3.9%
Under 21.5
57.2%
@ 1.75+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw
52.2%
Avg Implied 52.9% · @ 1.78
Edge
-0.6%
31%
25%
44%
covers SC Paderborn 07 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.79
SC Paderborn 07 or SC Freiburg
76.2%
Avg Implied 74.7% · @ 1.26
Edge
+1.5%
31%
25%
44%
covers SC Paderborn 07 + SC Freiburg
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Draw or SC Freiburg
71.6%
Avg Implied 72.5% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.9%
31%
25%
44%
covers Draw + SC Freiburg
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5
Over
77.2%
@ 1.31+6.1%
Under
22.8%
@ 3.22-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5
Over
43.5%
@ 2.55+6.8%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.48-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5
Over
18.6%
@ 6.01+3.2%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.10-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
@ 13.49-0.8%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
@ 1.15+5.2%
Under
14.2%
@ 4.79-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Unibet
4.70
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5
Over
58.0%
@ 1.82+6.5%
Under
42.0%
@ 1.93-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betfair
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5
Over
31.0%
@ 3.55+4.7%
Under
69.0%
@ 1.27-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.74
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
SC Freiburg over/under 3.5
Over
13.4%
@ 7.80+1.5%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.05-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SC Paderborn 07, so a minus line means SC Paderborn 07 give that many goals of a start and SC Freiburg receive them. At -1, SC Paderborn 07 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SC Paderborn 07 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SC Paderborn 07)
SC Paderborn 07 -2
5.0%
@ 13.72-1.6%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 8.56-2.0%
SC Freiburg +2
86.6%
@ 1.08+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (SC Paderborn 07)
SC Paderborn 07 -1
13.4%
@ 6.99+0.5%
Draw -1
15.0%
@ 5.13-2.5%
SC Freiburg +1
71.6%
@ 1.29+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Handicap +1 (SC Paderborn 07)
SC Paderborn 07 +1
52.2%
@ 1.77+1.5%
Draw +1
20.1%
@ 3.86-3.2%
SC Freiburg -1
27.7%
@ 3.45+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.76
10Bet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Away
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Handicap +2 (SC Paderborn 07)
SC Paderborn 07 +2
72.3%
@ 1.26+0.5%
Draw +2
14.7%
@ 5.66-1.3%
SC Freiburg -2
13.0%
@ 7.37+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Away
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Paderborn 07
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.00
1.07
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.76
1.08
1.08
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Freiburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.12
0.50
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.32
1.08
0.33
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.6%
@ 1.30+2.5%
Under 0.5
25.4%
@ 3.35-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 2.41-1.8%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.53+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.52
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Betfair
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 5.63-3.6%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.12+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
William Hil
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.0%
@ 2.15-7.4%
Under
64.0%
@ 1.65+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.7%
@ 6.82-6.8%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.07+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.10
Betano
6.60
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 12.50-6.1%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.5%
@ 1.75+4.3%
Under
42.5%
@ 1.99-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.98
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.5%
@ 4.65-1.4%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.15+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
Betano
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.7%
@ 10.25-3.4%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Paderborn 07
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.14
0.71
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.93
0.66
1.08
0.77
0.81
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Freiburg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Freiburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
1.19
0.69
0.64
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.40
1.67
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.91
0.92
0.58
0.50
1.30
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.5%
@ 1.17+5.0%
Under 0.5
15.5%
@ 4.55-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Under
Unibet
4.70
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.5%
@ 1.85+6.1%
Under 1.5
43.5%
@ 1.88-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
@ 3.66-1.5%
Under 2.5
76.0%
@ 1.25+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
1xBet
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.4%
@ 1.80-4.1%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.91+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.87
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
@ 5.00-6.4%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.14+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
@ 10.50-6.5%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
SC Freiburg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.3%
@ 1.50+1.4%
Under
36.7%
@ 2.44-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.43
SC Freiburg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.5%
@ 3.40+6.3%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.27-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
SC Freiburg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.5%
@ 8.45-2.5%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.04+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
Under 6.5
94.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-0.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+6.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+6.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Unibet
1.12
+3.6%
Under 5.5
86.7%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
-2.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
86.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-1.5%
Away +2 handicap
86.6%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+3.6%
Away over 0.5 goals
85.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+5.2%
Under 25.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.17
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
+5.0%
Over 1.5
84.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.7%
Under 5.5 cards
84.0%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.5%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+1.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-3.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
+6.1%
Home or Away
76.2%
1.26
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
+1.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+1.5%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.6%
1.30
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+2.5%
Under 4.5
73.9%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-6.3%
Under 23.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+0.5%
Draw or Away
71.6%
1.30
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
-0.9%
Away +1 handicap
71.6%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+2.0%
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
1.23
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
-
-3.1%
Over 2.5 cards
70.2%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
-
-
-
-0.5%
Under 4.5 cards
70.1%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.44
-
-
-
+6.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Paderborn 07 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Filip Bilbija39%
Adriano Grimaldi25%
Lucas Copado25%
Marcel Hoffmeier20%
Laurin Curda19%
Stefano Marino19%
Sebastian Klaas17%
Sven Michel13%
Mika Baur11%
Steffen Tigges9%
Kennedy Okpala8%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Raphael Obermair7%
Nick Bätzner6%
Tjark Lasse Scheller6%
Luis Engelns5%
Felix Götze3%
David Kinsombi0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Ruben Müller0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcel Hoffmeier40%
Kennedy Okpala33%
Laurin Curda22%
Mattes Hansen21%
Sven Michel20%
Marco Wörner20%
Santiago Castañeda18%
Raphael Obermair17%
Mika Baur17%
Ruben Müller17%
Filip Bilbija15%
Tjark Lasse Scheller14%
Felix Götze12%
Nick Bätzner12%
Luis Engelns11%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Stefano Marino6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Jonah Sticker4%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Lucas Copado0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raphael Obermair30%
Laurin Curda19%
Mika Baur14%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Sebastian Klaas10%
Filip Bilbija9%
Ruben Müller8%
Felix Götze6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Nick Bätzner6%
Sven Michel3%
Stefano Marino3%
Mattes Hansen3%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stefano Marino23%
Laurin Curda19%
Steffen Tigges18%
Filip Bilbija15%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Raphael Obermair10%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Sven Michel7%
Mika Baur6%
Nick Bätzner3%
Santiago Castañeda3%
David Kinsombi0%
Felix Götze0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Ruben Müller0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
SC Freiburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Igor Matanović75%
Keisuke Goto50%
Lucas Höler33%
Jordy Makengo33%
Matthias Ginter25%
Yuito Suzuki25%
Derry Scherhant25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan-Niklas Beste33%
Yuito Suzuki25%
Keisuke Goto25%
Matthias Ginter0%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Igor Matanović0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Derry Scherhant0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Cyriaque Irié0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Igor Matanović75%
Derry Scherhant50%
Jan-Niklas Beste33%
Vincenzo Grifo33%
Matthias Ginter25%
Maximilian Eggestein25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Yuito Suzuki0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keisuke Goto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yuito Suzuki50%
Matthias Ginter25%
Igor Matanović25%
Derry Scherhant25%
Cyriaque Irié25%
Maximilian Eggestein0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Philipp Lienhart0%
Vincenzo Grifo0%
Lucas Höler0%
Yannick Engelhardt0%
Philipp Treu0%
Jordy Makengo0%
Maximilian Rosenfelder0%
Mio Backhaus0%
Keisuke Goto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
SC Paderborn 07's squad is €199m less valuable than SC Freiburg's (€43m vs €243m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
SC Paderborn 07's attack is €82m less valuable than SC Freiburg's (€14m vs €96m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
SC Paderborn 07's midfield is €18m less valuable than SC Freiburg's (€18m vs €36m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
SC Paderborn 07's defence is €99m less valuable than SC Freiburg's (€11m vs €110m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart