The model favours an away win, with a 59% chance of Admira Wacker triumphing over Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz. The expected total of goals sits at 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.2% chance. Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. Admira Wacker, on the road, averages 1.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded versus similar opposition. The model’s selections include an 88.9% chance of over 2.5 cards, an 80.4% chance of over 1.5 goals, a 79.1% chance of over 19.5 fouls, and a 75.8% chance of over 3.5 cards. Home win probability is 17%, draw 24%, and away win 59%.
Results analysis
The upset came as Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the model’s pick of an away triumph. The pre-match favourite, Admira Wacker, had a 59% chance of victory, but the result proved the model wrong. The model’s single other selection, Over 1.5, missed, with an 80.4% probability of success. The final score of 1-0 gave the home side a win, extending their recent run of LWDWL and ending a defeat to Austria Vienna. The away side, after a win over WSPG Wels, could not convert their 1.85 average goals scored into a victory. The model’s prediction was therefore incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win✓ Hit
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker win✗ Miss
59.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.28
1.55
1.00
1.64
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.90
0.60
1.40
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.37
1.22
1.78
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Admira Wacker) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Admira Wacker
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.79
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.57
1.04
1.33
0.80
1.85
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
10.0%
0-1
9.2%
0-3
6.6%
1-3
6.5%
0-0
6.2%
2-1
5.0%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz goals ↓
Admira Wacker goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
9.2%
10%
6.6%
3.2%
1
4.2%
11%
10.0%
6.5%
3.2%
2
2.6%
5.0%
4.9%
3.2%
1.6%
3
0.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz goals (down), columns = Admira Wacker goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Grazer AK
2.30
Ried
1.97
First Vienna
1.70
Leoben
1.70
Floridsdorfer AC
1.63
FC Liefering
1.57
Admira Wacker
1.57
SV Horn
1.37
SKN ST. Polten
1.33
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.30
SV Lafnitz
1.23
SV Kapfenberg
1.17
Stripfing
1.17
Dornbirn
1.10
Sturm Graz II
0.77
SKU Amstetten
0.53
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz is 0.27 points worse than Admira Wacker in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
2.23
Grazer AK
1.90
First Vienna
1.73
FC Liefering
1.70
SV Lafnitz
1.60
Leoben
1.57
SKN ST. Polten
1.53
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
SV Kapfenberg
1.40
Admira Wacker
1.40
Stripfing
1.33
SV Horn
1.33
Sturm Graz II
1.30
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.27
Dornbirn
1.07
SKU Amstetten
1.00
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz is 0.13 goals worse than Admira Wacker in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ried
0.73
Grazer AK
0.90
Admira Wacker
1.03
Leoben
1.03
Floridsdorfer AC
1.10
First Vienna
1.30
FC Liefering
1.33
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.50
SV Horn
1.60
Dornbirn
1.70
SKN ST. Polten
1.73
SV Kapfenberg
1.80
SV Lafnitz
1.90
Stripfing
1.93
SKU Amstetten
2.03
Sturm Graz II
2.23
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz is 0.47 goals worse than Admira Wacker in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ried
56%
SKN ST. Polten
55%
Floridsdorfer AC
54%
Leoben
51%
FC Liefering
51%
First Vienna
50%
Admira Wacker
50%
SV Horn
49%
SV Lafnitz
48%
SKU Amstetten
48%
Grazer AK
48%
SV Kapfenberg
45%
Dornbirn
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Admira Wacker
For 4.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Admira Wacker) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Admira Wacker
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.5
10.7
3.7
3.8
3.6
25.3
25.8
24.8
vs Stronger (4)
10.5
9.5
11.5
5.0
5.5
4.5
26.5
28.0
25.0
vs Similar (46)
10.1
9.5
10.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
25.2
25.5
24.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
47%
78%
48%
46%
50%
79%
84%
74%
% under line
38%
53%
22%
52%
54%
50%
21%
16%
26%
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
First Vienna
11.4
Dornbirn
11.0
Floridsdorfer AC
10.6
FC Liefering
10.5
SV Kapfenberg
10.5
SKU Amstetten
10.4
SV Lafnitz
10.3
Admira Wacker
10.0
SKN ST. Polten
9.9
Ried
9.9
SV Horn
9.5
Grazer AK
9.3
Leoben
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
5.9
SV Horn
5.1
SV Lafnitz
5.1
Dornbirn
5.1
Admira Wacker
4.9
Floridsdorfer AC
4.8
First Vienna
4.7
SKN ST. Polten
4.7
FC Liefering
4.7
Grazer AK
4.6
Ried
4.5
SKU Amstetten
4.2
Leoben
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Floridsdorfer AC
26.9
First Vienna
26.6
FC Liefering
26.5
Dornbirn
26.0
Grazer AK
25.6
SV Horn
25.5
SV Kapfenberg
25.2
Admira Wacker
24.8
SV Lafnitz
24.5
Ried
24.3
SKU Amstetten
24.0
SKN ST. Polten
22.7
Leoben
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.4%
Under 9.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.8%
Under 3.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.7%
Under 21.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.83
0.50
0.93
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.74
0.67
1.11
0.90
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Admira Wacker) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Admira Wacker
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.44
0.38
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.50
0.47
0.40
0.85
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.66
0.72
0.50
0.71
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.63
0.56
0.67
1.10
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
41% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Admira Wacker) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Admira Wacker
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
0.81
0.38
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.54
0.87
0.40
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
FL (17)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and Admira Wacker have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and Admira Wacker have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and Admira Wacker have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (13)
€6m
RIE (9)
€3m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and Admira Wacker have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Grazer AK
Ried
Leoben
First Vienna
Floridsdorfer AC
FC Liefering
SV Horn
SKN ST. Polten
SV Lafnitz
SV Kapfenberg
Stripfing
Dornbirn
Sturm Graz II
SKU Amstetten