Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz face SKN ST Polten in a match that feels almost evenly matched, with the model favouring an away win at 37% versus 32% for a home victory and 31% for a draw. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% chance. At home, Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz have struggled against stronger opposition, averaging zero goals scored and conceded in recent fixtures, while SKN ST Polten, fresh from a win, have shown resilience away. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 91.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 80.7%, Under 3.5 (miss) at 79.0%, and Under 11.5 corners at 72.8%. These picks reflect the game’s likely intensity and the defensive tendencies of both sides.
Results analysis
The match saw Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz’s recent run of LWDWL end with a 2-3 loss, while SKN ST. Polten, after a solitary win in their last five, secured the away victory. The model had picked an away win with a 37% probability, and it proved correct. The predicted total of 2.3 goals was far below the actual tally of five, making the game far more prolific than expected. The only other selection was Under 3.5, given a 79% chance, but it missed as the total exceeded the threshold. The final score of 2-3 confirmed the away win and highlighted the model’s accurate favourite call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten win✓ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.54
0.77
1.17
0.67
1.86
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (9)
2.11
0.78
1.75
1.00
2.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKN ST. Polten
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.73
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.93
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.9%
0-1
10.5%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
6.0%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz goals ↓
SKN ST. Polten goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
7.2%
3.0%
0.9%
1
9.4%
14%
8.1%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.0%
7.3%
4.5%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.2%
2.7%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz goals (down), columns = SKN ST. Polten goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Grazer AK
2.30
Ried
1.97
First Vienna
1.70
Leoben
1.70
Floridsdorfer AC
1.63
FC Liefering
1.57
Admira Wacker
1.57
SV Horn
1.37
SKN ST. Polten
1.33
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.30
SV Lafnitz
1.23
SV Kapfenberg
1.17
Stripfing
1.17
Dornbirn
1.10
Sturm Graz II
0.77
SKU Amstetten
0.53
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz is 0.03 points worse than SKN ST. Polten in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
2.23
Grazer AK
1.90
First Vienna
1.73
FC Liefering
1.70
SV Lafnitz
1.60
Leoben
1.57
SKN ST. Polten
1.53
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
SV Kapfenberg
1.40
Admira Wacker
1.40
Stripfing
1.33
SV Horn
1.33
Sturm Graz II
1.30
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.27
Dornbirn
1.07
SKU Amstetten
1.00
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz is 0.27 goals worse than SKN ST. Polten in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ried
0.73
Grazer AK
0.90
Admira Wacker
1.03
Leoben
1.03
Floridsdorfer AC
1.10
First Vienna
1.30
FC Liefering
1.33
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.50
SV Horn
1.60
Dornbirn
1.70
SKN ST. Polten
1.73
SV Kapfenberg
1.80
SV Lafnitz
1.90
Stripfing
1.93
SKU Amstetten
2.03
Sturm Graz II
2.23
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz is 0.23 goals better than SKN ST. Polten in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ried
56%
SKN ST. Polten
55%
Floridsdorfer AC
54%
Leoben
51%
FC Liefering
51%
First Vienna
50%
Admira Wacker
50%
SV Horn
49%
SV Lafnitz
48%
SKU Amstetten
48%
Grazer AK
48%
SV Kapfenberg
45%
Dornbirn
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
SKN ST. Polten
For 6.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.5 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKN ST. Polten
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (43)
9.5
10.0
9.0
2.8
2.3
3.3
22.5
23.1
21.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
9.5
10.0
9.0
2.8
2.3
3.3
22.5
23.1
21.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
50%
46%
33%
32%
33%
59%
64%
54%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
67%
68%
67%
41%
36%
46%
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
First Vienna
11.9
Dornbirn
11.2
Floridsdorfer AC
10.7
Ried
10.4
FC Liefering
10.3
Admira Wacker
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.0
SV Lafnitz
10.0
SV Kapfenberg
9.9
SV Horn
9.6
SKN ST. Polten
9.5
Grazer AK
9.1
Leoben
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.0
SV Horn
5.2
SV Lafnitz
5.0
Floridsdorfer AC
4.8
Dornbirn
4.8
Admira Wacker
4.7
First Vienna
4.6
Ried
4.6
Grazer AK
4.5
SKN ST. Polten
4.4
Leoben
4.4
FC Liefering
4.4
SKU Amstetten
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Floridsdorfer AC
28.7
SV Horn
27.1
FC Liefering
26.9
First Vienna
26.3
Grazer AK
26.3
Dornbirn
26.1
SV Lafnitz
25.8
Admira Wacker
25.7
SV Kapfenberg
25.7
SKU Amstetten
25.1
Ried
24.7
Leoben
23.5
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.7%
Under 9.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
80.7%
Under 3.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.1%
Under 21.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.23
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.33
1.25
0.50
1.20
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKN ST. Polten
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.75
0.31
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.43
0.75
0.31
0.79
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.54
0.33
0.33
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.44
0.50
0.50
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (SKN ST. Polten) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SKN ST. Polten
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.81
0.62
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
0.53
0.81
0.62
1.14
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SKN ST. Polten over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (23)
€9m
RIE (24)
€7m
FL (17)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and SKN ST. Polten have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
RIE (7)
€2m
GA (7)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and SKN ST. Polten have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and SKN ST. Polten have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (13)
€6m
RIE (9)
€3m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and SKN ST. Polten have a similar defence value (both €1m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
SB wins
0
Draws
0
SSP wins
Head-to-head
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz vs SKN ST. Polten · H/A from SB
Austria: 2. Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →