The contest between Semendrija 1924 and Javor is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but the margin is razor thin. The probabilities are 37 % for a home victory, 27 % for a draw, and 36 % for an away win, making the home side the slight favourite. The expected total goals sit at 3.0, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 24 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, occurring with a 12.3 % probability.
Semendrija 1924, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages two goals scored and one conceded, while Javor, on the road, averages 1.17 scored and 1.75 conceded. Recent form shows Semendrija unbeaten in five, ending 0-0 against Metalac GM, whereas Javor comes off a 3-0 win over Jedinstvo Ub.
Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.8 %), Under 6.5 (96.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.3 %), Under 5.5 (91.6 %), Home +2 handicap (82.1 %), Away +2 handicap (81.5 %), and Under 4.5 (81.5 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Semendrija 1924 win
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Javor win
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Semendrija 1924
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
2.20
1.07
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.59
1.07
2.15
1.08
1.07
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Javor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Javor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.37
1.47
0.88
1.08
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.12
0.80
1.20
0.67
3.67
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.10
1.45
0.73
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.0%
2-0
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
Semendrija 1924 goals ↓
Javor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.6%
5.1%
2.5%
1.0%
1
6.0%
12%
8.1%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.6%
6.5%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.1%
4.6%
3.5%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.2%
1.9%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Semendrija 1924 goals (down), columns = Javor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Semendrija 1924 is 0.17 points better than Javor in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Semendrija 1924 is 0.67 goals worse than Javor in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Semendrija 1924 and Javor are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Semendrija 1924 or Draw
65.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
35%
covers Semendrija 1924 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 or Javor
74.1%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
35%
covers Semendrija 1924 + Javor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Javor
60.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
35%
covers Draw + Javor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 1.5
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 2.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Semendrija 1924, so a minus line means Semendrija 1924 give that many goals of a start and Javor receive them. At -1, Semendrija 1924 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Semendrija 1924 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Semendrija 1924)
Semendrija 1924 -2
8.2%
Draw -2
12.0%
Javor +2
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Semendrija 1924)
Semendrija 1924 -1
20.1%
Draw -1
19.0%
Javor +1
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Semendrija 1924)
Semendrija 1924 +1
65.0%
Draw +1
17.8%
Javor -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Semendrija 1924)
Semendrija 1924 +2
82.8%
Draw +2
10.6%
Javor -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Semendrija 1924
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.13
0.27
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.37
0.92
0.31
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
2.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Javor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Javor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.82
0.12
0.54
1.08
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.60
0.20
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.43
0.73
0.00
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.4%
Under 1.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.6%
Under 2.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Semendrija 1924
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.80
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.70
1.23
0.77
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Javor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Javor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.65
0.76
0.54
0.92
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.38
0.20
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.8%
Under 0.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.2%
Under 1.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Javor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Javor · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Herve Toure29%
Bayere Loue26%
Aleksa Radonjić21%
Petar Petrović12%
Boubacari Doucoure11%
Benjamin Acquah8%
Mateja Zuvić8%
Lazar Mićić8%
Ognjen Krsmanović7%
Mass Sise7%
Stefan Vilotic5%
Dušan Pantelić5%
Ibrahim Tanko4%
Nemanja Đokić3%
Kayode Saliman3%
Marko Bjeković3%
Mamane Amadou Sabo3%
Đorđe Skoko3%
Nikola Vasiljević0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Stefan Milošević0%
Milan Ilić0%
Dimitrije Stevanović0%
Andreja Ristić0%
Dušan Ristić0%
Martin Andjelkovic0%
Petar Đoković0%
Boasiako Francis Antwi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Vilotic33%
Mamane Amadou Sabo27%
Boubacari Doucoure23%
Petar Petrović21%
Benjamin Acquah17%
Đorđe Skoko17%
Stefan Milošević16%
Mateja Zuvić15%
Herve Toure14%
Ognjen Krsmanović14%
Aleksa Radonjić14%
Kayode Saliman13%
Milan Ilić12%
Dušan Pantelić9%
Ibrahim Tanko8%
Lazar Mićić8%
Mass Sise7%
Petar Đoković7%
Bayere Loue6%
Marko Bjeković6%
Nikola Vasiljević3%
Nemanja Đokić3%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Dimitrije Stevanović0%
Andreja Ristić0%
Dušan Ristić0%
Martin Andjelkovic0%
Boasiako Francis Antwi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Bjeković15%
Herve Toure14%
Lazar Mićić12%
Kayode Saliman10%
Stefan Vilotic10%
Mamane Amadou Sabo9%
Petar Đoković7%
Bayere Loue6%
Petar Petrović6%
Boubacari Doucoure6%
Dušan Pantelić5%
Stefan Milošević4%
Aleksa Radonjić3%
Nemanja Đokić3%
Đorđe Skoko3%
Nikola Vasiljević0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Ibrahim Tanko0%
Milan Ilić0%
Mateja Zuvić0%
Dimitrije Stevanović0%
Benjamin Acquah0%
Mass Sise0%
Andreja Ristić0%
Dušan Ristić0%
Ognjen Krsmanović0%
Martin Andjelkovic0%
Boasiako Francis Antwi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Aleksa Radonjić17%
Herve Toure14%
Ognjen Krsmanović14%
Bayere Loue10%
Kayode Saliman10%
Benjamin Acquah8%
Nemanja Đokić7%
Lazar Mićić4%
Marko Bjeković3%
Petar Petrović3%
Boubacari Doucoure3%
Nikola Vasiljević0%
Dušan Pantelić0%
Nemanja Krstić0%
Ibrahim Tanko0%
Stefan Milošević0%
Stefan Vilotic0%
Milan Ilić0%
Mateja Zuvić0%
Dimitrije Stevanović0%
Mamane Amadou Sabo0%
Mass Sise0%
Andreja Ristić0%
Dušan Ristić0%
Đorđe Skoko0%
Martin Andjelkovic0%
Petar Đoković0%
Boasiako Francis Antwi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Semendrija 1924's squad is €2m less valuable than Javor's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Semendrija 1924's attack is €1m less valuable than Javor's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Semendrija 1924 and Javor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Semendrija 1924's defence is €1m less valuable than Javor's (€1m vs €3m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
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Borac Cacak
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar