The contest between Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. The expected goal total sits at 2.3, pointing to a modestly low-scoring game. The most likely exact score is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance. Septemvri Sofia, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Botev Vratsa, on the road, averages 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded against comparable opposition. The probability spread is 41% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 29% for an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 5% edge), and Under 5.5 (96.8% with a 2% edge). Both sides have been on recent winning streaks, adding to the intrigue.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Septemvri Sofia win
39.4%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.57
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.72
1xBet
2.66
Marathonbet
2.64
Betano
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied 31.5% · @ 2.92
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.20
Unibet
3.15
BetVictor
3.10
Dafabet
3.00
Superbet
2.92
Botev Vratsa win
29.4%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.83
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.09
Marathonbet
2.92
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Septemvri Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.57
0.80
1.33
0.60
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.71
0.80
1.80
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
1.22
0.80
1.10
0.69
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Vratsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.13
1.07
0.73
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.38
2.25
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.76
1.07
0.79
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.41+1.6%
Under 1.5
32.7%
@ 2.70-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
Under
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
10Bet
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.3%
@ 2.30-1.2%
Under 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.57+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
Unibet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 4.28-2.5%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.19+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.80
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Pinnacle
4.47
Marathonbet
4.15
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Both teams to score
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.91-1.5%
No
53.2%
@ 1.78+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
No
Betfair
1.87
Unibet
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 5.38+6.5%
0-0
11.8%@ 6.75+5.4%
1-0
11.5%@ 6.50+4.9%
0-1
9.4%@ 6.73+3.0%
2-1
8.1%@ 9.12+3.4%
2-0
7.9%@ 10.86+3.9%
1-2
6.8%@ 9.56+2.3%
0-2
5.5%@ 12.18+2.0%
Septemvri Sofia goals ↓
Botev Vratsa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.4%
5.5%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.9%
8.1%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.2%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Septemvri Sofia goals (down), columns = Botev Vratsa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Septemvri Sofia is 0.57 points better than Botev Vratsa in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Septemvri Sofia is 0.14 goals better than Botev Vratsa in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 0.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Septemvri Sofia is 0.71 goals better than Botev Vratsa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Septemvri Sofia
For 2.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Botev Vratsa
For 3.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Septemvri Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.5
8.8
2.9
2.8
3.0
22.2
23.1
21.3
vs Stronger (12)
8.9
7.8
10.0
3.2
3.7
2.8
22.4
23.8
21.0
vs Similar (38)
7.9
7.4
8.3
2.8
2.6
3.1
22.1
22.8
21.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
31%
31%
31%
42%
40%
44%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
69%
69%
69%
58%
60%
56%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Vratsa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
7.8
8.8
2.5
2.7
2.2
23.2
23.2
23.1
vs Stronger (14)
8.7
5.7
11.7
2.0
3.6
1.1
20.3
26.7
14.0
vs Similar (36)
8.2
8.5
7.8
2.6
2.5
2.9
24.1
22.2
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
32%
15%
50%
38%
44%
32%
60%
46%
75%
% under line
68%
85%
50%
62%
56%
68%
40%
54%
25%
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.0
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
CSKA 1948
9.4
Ludogorets
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
Dunav Ruse
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Botev Vratsa
24.7
Levski Sofia
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.4
Slavia Sofia
23.9
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
Spartak Varna
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Botev Plovdiv
22.4
Ludogorets
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
35.9%
@ 2.23-5.7%
Under 9.5
64.1%
@ 1.58+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.24
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.18
Unibet
2.04
Under
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.6%
Under 3.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.4%
Under 21.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Septemvri Sofia or Draw
70.6%
Avg Implied 67.5% · @ 1.37
Edge
+3.1%
39%
31%
29%
covers Septemvri Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Septemvri Sofia or Botev Vratsa
68.9%
Avg Implied 68.7% · @ 1.35
Edge
+0.2%
39%
31%
29%
covers Septemvri Sofia + Botev Vratsa
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Draw or Botev Vratsa
60.6%
Avg Implied 63.8% · @ 1.45
Edge
-3.3%
39%
31%
29%
covers Draw + Botev Vratsa
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
Betfair
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5
Over
70.8%
@ 1.35+2.3%
Under
29.2%
@ 2.93-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
Unibet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5
Over
34.8%
@ 2.73+0.9%
Under
65.2%
@ 1.40-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
Marathonbet
2.81
BetVictor
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
@ 6.81-0.9%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.08+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Septemvri Sofia over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
@ 16.00-2.3%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5
Over
64.3%
@ 1.39-2.2%
Under
35.7%
@ 2.76+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5
Over
27.5%
@ 2.93-4.1%
Under
72.5%
@ 1.35+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.18
Marathonbet
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5
Over
8.6%
@ 7.62-3.6%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.06+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.70
Superbet
7.10
Under
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Botev Vratsa over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
@ 17.50-3.4%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Septemvri Sofia, so a minus line means Septemvri Sofia give that many goals of a start and Botev Vratsa receive them. At -1, Septemvri Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Septemvri Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Septemvri Sofia)
Septemvri Sofia -2
6.1%
@ 11.43-1.6%
Draw -2
11.8%
@ 6.86-1.0%
Botev Vratsa +2
82.1%
@ 1.11+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Septemvri Sofia)
Septemvri Sofia -1
17.9%
@ 5.42+1.4%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 3.95-1.0%
Botev Vratsa +1
60.6%
@ 1.46-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Handicap +1 (Septemvri Sofia)
Septemvri Sofia +1
70.6%
@ 1.39+6.2%
Draw +1
17.8%
@ 4.28-3.1%
Botev Vratsa -1
11.6%
@ 6.08-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Unibet
5.60
Handicap +2 (Septemvri Sofia)
Septemvri Sofia +2
88.4%
@ 1.10+6.6%
Draw +2
8.3%
@ 7.75-3.3%
Botev Vratsa -2
3.4%
@ 13.50-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
7.00
Away
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Septemvri Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.57
0.20
0.47
0.13
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
0.71
0.00
0.60
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.22
0.52
0.30
0.40
0.15
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Vratsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.13
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.19
0.36
0.14
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.3%
@ 1.50+4.2%
Under 0.5
33.7%
@ 2.46-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
BetVictor
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Under
Betfair
2.63
William Hil
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.57
Bet365
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.1%
@ 3.29+0.0%
Under 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.29-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.50
Betano
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.1%
@ 8.97-1.2%
Under 2.5
90.9%
@ 1.04+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
10.00
Betfair
9.50
William Hil
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Under
Betano
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.1%
@ 2.25+3.0%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.58-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.6%
@ 7.77-1.3%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.06+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
@ 12.50-5.5%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.5%
@ 2.37-0.5%
Under
61.5%
@ 1.52+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.30
Under
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
@ 8.77-1.6%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.04+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Septemvri Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.60
0.87
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.00
0.80
1.20
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.70
0.50
0.70
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Vratsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.60
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.33
1.00
0.00
0.38
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.57
0.71
0.64
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.5%
@ 1.32+4.1%
Under 0.5
25.5%
@ 3.15-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.3%
@ 2.41+1.8%
Under 1.5
59.7%
@ 1.51-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 5.68-1.9%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.11+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.5%
@ 1.90+2.9%
Under
48.5%
@ 1.80-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.1%
@ 5.58-0.5%
Under
83.9%
@ 1.11+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.80
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 11.00-5.5%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.0%
@ 1.98+0.2%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.74-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.0%
@ 6.05-0.3%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.09+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.30
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
@ 11.50-5.5%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.04
+2.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
91.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+1.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+1.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+1.3%
Home +2 handicap
88.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
-
-
-
+6.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+0.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
+1.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
+0.3%
Over 2.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.1%
1.18
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+6.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
+0.5%
Away +2 handicap
82.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
+2.7%
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
+2.5%
Under 10.5 corners
75.3%
1.32
Unibet
1.40
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
-
+6.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.5%
1.32
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+4.1%
Over 19.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.5%
1.35
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
+4.1%
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.29
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
-0.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
70.8%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
+2.3%
Home or Draw
70.6%
1.37
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
+3.1%
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
1.39
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
-
-
+6.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Septemvri Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bertrand Fourrier32%
Ali Aruna25%
Nicolas Fontaine20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Kubrat Onashchi5%
Martin Hristov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Kleri Serber0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Valon Hamdiu50%
Ali Aruna50%
Victor Ochayi44%
Ayoub Abou Oulam33%
Yoan Baurenski32%
Mateo Stamatov29%
Sebas Wade22%
Valentine Ozornwafor21%
Kleri Serber20%
Krasian Kolev20%
Georgi Varbanov17%
Simeon Vasilev17%
Galin Ivanov16%
Kubrat Onashchi15%
Nicolas Fontaine13%
Bozhidar Tomovski11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Bertrand Fourrier11%
Moi Parra10%
Martin Hristov10%
Stefan Stojanović9%
Robin Schouten8%
Yanko Georgiev6%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kleri Serber20%
Robin Schouten15%
Mateo Stamatov14%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Galin Ivanov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Bertrand Fourrier0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Edney Ribeiro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bertrand Fourrier21%
Kleri Serber20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Stoyan Stoichkov7%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Botev Vratsa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Petkov24%
Mitchy Ntelo14%
Kassim Hadji14%
Martin Smolenski12%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Sainey Sanyang11%
Arian Kabashi11%
José Gallegos6%
Milen Stoev5%
Daniel Genov5%
Antoan Stoyanov5%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Kristiyan Malinov0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Aymen Souda0%
Romeesh Ivey0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mohamed Bukassi67%
Nikola Vlajković40%
Aymen Souda33%
Arian Kabashi33%
Ivan Goranov27%
Yoan Bornosuzov25%
Martin Petkov24%
Milen Stoev20%
Kristiyan Malinov20%
Dimitar Evtimov18%
Martin Smolenski18%
Vladislav Naydenov18%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski17%
Daniel Genov15%
Iliya Yurukov13%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Romeesh Ivey11%
Bozhidar Penchev11%
Antoan Stoyanov10%
José Gallegos6%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Martin Dichev0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Radoslav Tsonev18%
Martin Petkov12%
Vladislav Naydenov12%
José Gallegos11%
Kristiyan Malinov10%
Martin Smolenski6%
Daniel Genov5%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Milen Stoev0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Aymen Souda0%
Romeesh Ivey0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Antoan Stoyanov0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Arian Kabashi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Petkov18%
Aymen Souda17%
Daniel Genov15%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Romeesh Ivey11%
Martin Smolenski6%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Milen Stoev0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Kristiyan Malinov0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
José Gallegos0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Antoan Stoyanov0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Arian Kabashi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Septemvri Sofia's squad is €2m less valuable than Botev Vratsa's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Septemvri Sofia's attack is €1m less valuable than Botev Vratsa's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
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Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv