Septemvri Sofia faces a tough test at home against CSKA 1948, with the away side looking to capitalize on the home team's recent struggles. CSKA 1948's 4-1 win over Cherno More Varna in their last outing suggests they are in good form, while Septemvri Sofia's three consecutive defeats will be a concern for the home fans.
The model predicts a 64% chance of an away win, with the most likely score being 0-2 in favor of CSKA 1948. The expected total goals is 2.7, with 2 goals being the most likely total. Septemvri Sofia has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.83 goals per match against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.75 goals. CSKA 1948, on the other hand, has excelled on the road, scoring 2.43 goals per match against weaker opponents and conceding just 0.43 goals.
The model's selection for the match result is an away win. The suggested picks include an Over 1.5 goals selection with a 75.6% chance and an Under 3.5 goals selection with a 72% chance. Home win percentage is 13%, draw percentage is 23%, and away win percentage is 64%.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as Septemvri Sofia snatched a 1-0 home win, extending their two-game winning streak and denying the pre-match favourite, CSKA 1948, whose 64% chance of triumph was wrong. The model had called an away win, but the result was a home victory. The final score of 1-0 matched the most likely 0-2 or 0-1 outcomes, yet the actual outcome was a narrow home win. All of the model’s suggested picks hit: Under 7.5 at 99.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3%, Under 6.5 at 98.0%, Away +2 handicap at 96.2%, Home under 2.5 goals at 96.0%, and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Septemvri Sofia win✓ Hit
12.6%
Avg Implied 16.4% · @ 5.60
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.81
Pinnacle
5.76
Unibet
5.75
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.86
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.05
Unibet
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
1xBet
3.90
CSKA 1948 win✗ Miss
64.4%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.54
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Dafabet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Septemvri Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.60
0.73
1.40
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
3.17
0.75
2.25
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.21
0.73
1.09
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA 1948) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA 1948
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.03
1.38
1.12
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
1.56
1.60
1.60
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.50
0.83
0.86
0.86
2.40
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
0.78
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.6%
@ 1.26+2.3%
Under 1.5
24.4%
@ 3.47-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Unibet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.9%
@ 1.87-0.1%
Under 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.87+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.94
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
Unibet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.9%
@ 3.15-1.5%
Under 3.5
72.1%
@ 1.31+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
888Sport
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
Unibet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.8%
@ 1.90-2.9%
No
54.2%
@ 1.80+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
No
Unibet
1.87
Betfair
1.85
888Sport
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Betano
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.9%@ 6.49+6.1%
0-1
12.4%@ 5.91+5.0%
1-1
10.9%@ 6.98+4.6%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.30+3.6%
0-3
8.3%@ 10.18+4.0%
0-0
7.9%@ 9.79+3.5%
1-3
6.1%@ 11.59+2.4%
1-0 ✓
4.1%@ 13.42+0.9%
Septemvri Sofia goals ↓
CSKA 1948 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
12%
13%
8.3%
4.0%
1
4.1%
11%
9.6%
6.1%
3.0%
2
1.9%
3.7%
3.5%
2.3%
1.1%
3
0.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Septemvri Sofia goals (down), columns = CSKA 1948 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Septemvri Sofia is 1.36 points worse than CSKA 1948 in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Septemvri Sofia is 1.45 goals worse than CSKA 1948 in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Septemvri Sofia is 0.60 goals worse than CSKA 1948 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Septemvri Sofia
For 2.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
CSKA 1948
For 4.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.0 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Septemvri Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.5
8.8
2.7
2.6
2.7
22.2
23.1
21.3
vs Stronger (11)
8.9
7.8
10.0
3.0
3.2
2.8
22.4
23.8
21.0
vs Similar (39)
7.9
7.4
8.3
2.6
2.5
2.7
22.1
22.8
21.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
31%
31%
31%
38%
36%
40%
58%
62%
54%
% under line
69%
69%
69%
62%
64%
60%
42%
38%
46%
This opponent (CSKA 1948) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA 1948
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.6
9.7
2.4
2.1
2.7
21.8
23.4
20.5
vs Stronger (10)
9.8
7.5
11.3
1.7
1.4
2.0
21.8
26.0
19.0
vs Similar (20)
8.4
7.2
9.3
2.8
2.7
2.8
22.8
25.4
20.9
vs Weaker (20)
11.0
12.3
9.4
2.3
1.9
2.9
20.8
20.8
20.8
% over line
50%
46%
53%
34%
30%
39%
46%
69%
27%
% under line
50%
54%
47%
66%
70%
61%
54%
31%
73%
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.3
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Septemvri Sofia
4.8
Botev Vratsa
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
23.0
Spartak Varna
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.8
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.3
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.2%
@ 1.93-7.7%
Under 9.5
59.8%
@ 1.78+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Under
Unibet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.4%
@ 1.99+20.5%
Under 3.5
33.6%
@ 1.69-20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.8%
Under 21.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Septemvri Sofia or Draw✓ Hit
35.6%
Avg Implied 39.6% · @ 2.35
Edge
-4.0%
13%
23%
64%
covers Septemvri Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
888Sport
2.38
William Hil
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.37
Septemvri Sofia or CSKA 1948✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 76.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
+0.2%
13%
23%
64%
covers Septemvri Sofia + CSKA 1948
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Draw or CSKA 1948✗ Miss
87.4%
Avg Implied 83.6% · @ 1.11
Edge
+3.8%
13%
23%
64%
covers Draw + CSKA 1948
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
52.4%
@ 1.65-3.7%
Under
47.6%
@ 2.11+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Unibet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 4.29-4.5%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.18+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 12.35-3.7%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
10.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Septemvri Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 41.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
85.5%
@ 1.12+2.8%
Under
14.5%
@ 5.34-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Unibet
5.40
CSKA 1948 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
57.4%
@ 1.69+2.4%
Under
42.6%
@ 2.07-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
CSKA 1948 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.4%
@ 3.15+1.0%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.31-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.31
Bet365
3.25
888Sport
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betano
3.20
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
CSKA 1948 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 6.54-1.3%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.09+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
888Sport
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Betano
6.40
1xBet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.08
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Septemvri Sofia, so a minus line means Septemvri Sofia give that many goals of a start and CSKA 1948 receive them. At -1, Septemvri Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Septemvri Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Septemvri Sofia)Actual: CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia -2
0.8%
@ 41.00-1.5%
Draw -2
3.0%
@ 19.00-2.0%
CSKA 1948 +2
96.2%
@ 1.03+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
41.00
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Septemvri Sofia)Actual: Draw
Septemvri Sofia -1
3.8%
@ 11.57-3.7%
Draw -1
8.8%
@ 6.23-5.2%
CSKA 1948 +1
87.4%
@ 1.11+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap +1 (Septemvri Sofia)Actual: Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia +1
35.6%
@ 2.37-2.0%
Draw +1
24.5%
@ 3.40-1.8%
CSKA 1948 -1
39.9%
@ 2.48+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.43
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
Bet365
2.30
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Away
Bet365
2.60
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.45
Unibet
2.35
Handicap +2 (Septemvri Sofia)Actual: Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia +2
60.1%
@ 1.47-1.1%
Draw +2
20.2%
@ 4.47+0.2%
CSKA 1948 -2
19.7%
@ 4.78+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.10
Away
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Unibet
4.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Septemvri Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.57
0.20
0.47
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.50
0.27
0.36
0.31
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA 1948) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA 1948
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.62
0.50
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.56
0.80
0.40
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.42
0.29
0.43
1.60
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.75
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.36+1.2%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 2.89-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.06
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 2.71+0.6%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.41-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.87
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Under
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 6.61-0.4%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.08+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.45
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 2.92+3.5%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.36-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.16
Marathonbet
2.93
Betano
2.92
Superbet
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Under
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 10.25-1.6%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
58.8%
@ 1.67+3.0%
Under
41.2%
@ 2.10-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Unibet
2.17
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.02
CSKA 1948 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 4.28-2.5%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.18+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
CSKA 1948 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 10.00-4.5%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Septemvri Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.53
0.93
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.33
0.75
1.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.71
0.45
0.73
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA 1948) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA 1948
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.75
0.62
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.42
0.57
0.43
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.44
1.00
0.25
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.23+3.1%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.74-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
Marathonbet
3.78
1xBet
3.78
Superbet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.9%
@ 2.09+3.4%
Under 1.5
52.1%
@ 1.68-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 4.51-0.6%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.17+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
888Sport
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.2%
@ 2.42+5.9%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.50-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.44
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 8.67+0.0%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.04-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
9.10
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA 1948 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
64.7%
@ 1.47+1.5%
Under
35.3%
@ 2.52-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.47
CSKA 1948 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.9%
@ 3.13-1.7%
Under
72.1%
@ 1.32+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
CSKA 1948 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 7.75-3.7%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.05+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
87.4%
1.11
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
87.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+8.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
87.0%
1.09
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.7%
1.10
Unibet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.08
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.5%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
82.9%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
888Sport
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.0%
1.28
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+9.1%
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.9%
1.18
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.23
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.0%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.6%
1.26
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.1%
1.32
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.1%
1.31
Unibet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.5%
1.47
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
+9.0%
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Septemvri Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bertrand Fourrier32%
Ali Aruna25%
Nicolas Fontaine20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Kubrat Onashchi5%
Martin Hristov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Kleri Serber0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Valon Hamdiu50%
Ali Aruna50%
Victor Ochayi44%
Ayoub Abou Oulam33%
Yoan Baurenski32%
Mateo Stamatov29%
Sebas Wade22%
Valentine Ozornwafor21%
Kleri Serber20%
Krasian Kolev20%
Georgi Varbanov17%
Simeon Vasilev17%
Galin Ivanov16%
Kubrat Onashchi15%
Nicolas Fontaine13%
Bozhidar Tomovski11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Bertrand Fourrier11%
Moi Parra10%
Martin Hristov10%
Stefan Stojanović9%
Robin Schouten8%
Yanko Georgiev6%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kleri Serber20%
Robin Schouten15%
Mateo Stamatov14%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Galin Ivanov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Bertrand Fourrier0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Edney Ribeiro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bertrand Fourrier21%
Kleri Serber20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Stoyan Stoichkov7%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
CSKA 1948 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mamadou Diallo43%
Atanas Iliev20%
Emil Tsenov20%
Brian Sobrero14%
Borislav Tsonev12%
Dragan Grivić12%
Elias Franco10%
Florian Krebs10%
José Martínez8%
Lasha Dvali7%
Georgi Rusev6%
Petar Vitanov0%
Yohann Magnin0%
Andre Hoffmann0%
Zé Vitor0%
Wagninho0%
Ognjen Gašević0%
Frédéric Maciel0%
Juanmi Carrión0%
Dimitar Sheytanov0%
Egor Parkhomenko0%
Fourat Soltani0%
Diego Medina0%
Petar Marinov0%
Adama Ardile Traoré0%
William Fonkeu0%
Marto Boychev0%
Jean David Aka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Emil Tsenov40%
Dragan Grivić38%
Egor Parkhomenko38%
Zé Vitor33%
Wagninho33%
Fourat Soltani33%
William Fonkeu33%
Adama Ardile Traoré29%
Lasha Dvali21%
Andre Hoffmann20%
Elias Franco20%
Florian Krebs20%
Mamadou Diallo19%
Georgi Rusev19%
Borislav Tsonev19%
Ognjen Gašević14%
Yohann Magnin13%
Juanmi Carrión12%
Frédéric Maciel11%
Dimitar Sheytanov9%
Brian Sobrero9%
Petar Vitanov7%
Diego Medina7%
Marto Boychev6%
Atanas Iliev5%
José Martínez0%
Petar Marinov0%
Jean David Aka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Georgi Rusev25%
Borislav Tsonev19%
Frédéric Maciel16%
Lasha Dvali14%
Dragan Grivić12%
Florian Krebs10%
Elias Franco5%
Brian Sobrero5%
Atanas Iliev0%
Petar Vitanov0%
Yohann Magnin0%
Mamadou Diallo0%
Andre Hoffmann0%
Zé Vitor0%
Wagninho0%
Ognjen Gašević0%
Juanmi Carrión0%
José Martínez0%
Dimitar Sheytanov0%
Egor Parkhomenko0%
Fourat Soltani0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Diego Medina0%
Petar Marinov0%
Adama Ardile Traoré0%
William Fonkeu0%
Marto Boychev0%
Jean David Aka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mamadou Diallo33%
Georgi Rusev19%
Borislav Tsonev12%
Elias Franco10%
Atanas Iliev5%
Brian Sobrero5%
Petar Vitanov0%
Yohann Magnin0%
Andre Hoffmann0%
Lasha Dvali0%
Zé Vitor0%
Wagninho0%
Dragan Grivić0%
Ognjen Gašević0%
Frédéric Maciel0%
Juanmi Carrión0%
Florian Krebs0%
José Martínez0%
Dimitar Sheytanov0%
Egor Parkhomenko0%
Fourat Soltani0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Diego Medina0%
Petar Marinov0%
Adama Ardile Traoré0%
William Fonkeu0%
Marto Boychev0%
Jean David Aka0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Septemvri Sofia's squad is €15m less valuable than CSKA 1948's (€3m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Septemvri Sofia's attack is €8m less valuable than CSKA 1948's (€1m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Septemvri Sofia's midfield is €1m less valuable than CSKA 1948's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Septemvri Sofia's defence is €5m less valuable than CSKA 1948's (€2m vs €7m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
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Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv