Septemvri Sofia will host CSKA Sofia at home, looking to snap a two-game losing streak after a 0-3 defeat to Levski Sofia. However, their recent form has been inconsistent, with a mix of wins and losses in their last five matches. CSKA Sofia, on the other hand, is on a two-game winning run, having defeated Maccabi Tel Aviv 3-0 away from home.
The model predicts a 43% chance of CSKA Sofia winning, with a 33% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of Septemvri Sofia winning. The expected total number of goals is 2.0, with the most likely score being 0-0, 0-1 or 1-1, but the most likely outcome is an away win for CSKA Sofia. Septemvri Sofia has struggled to score at home, averaging 1.0 goal per game, while also conceding an average of 2.0 goals. CSKA Sofia, meanwhile, has been more clinical on the road, scoring an average of 1.57 goals and conceding just 0.29 goals per game.
The model's selection is an Under 3.5 goals, with a 85.6% probability, and an Over 3.5 cards, with a 78.6% probability. The home win percentage is 24%, the draw percentage is 33%, and the away win percentage is 43%.
Septemvri Sofia's win extends their run of poor form, with three consecutive defeats, but today they managed to secure a narrow victory over CSKA Sofia. The final score was 0-3, which also resulted in an away win. The model's selection, CSKA Sofia to win, was correct, given their 42% pre-match probability of success. The model's call was vindicated as CSKA Sofia's 3-game winning run continued. The model's selection of CSKA Sofia to win also came with a high probability of under 3.5 goals, which hit at 85.7%.
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.87 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 3.17 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.83 | 1.26 | 0.73 | 1.09 | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
CSKA Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.77 | 1.50 | 0.69 | 0.93 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.53 | 0.73 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| CSKA Sofia goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 15% | 14% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 10% | 15% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Septemvri Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 22.2 | 23.1 | 21.3 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 8.9 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 22.4 | 23.8 | 21.0 |
| vs Similar (38) | 7.9 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 22.1 | 22.8 | 21.4 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 31% | 31% | 31% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 58% | 62% | 54% |
| % under line | 69% | 69% | 69% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 42% | 38% | 46% |
CSKA Sofia| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 24.3 | 23.3 | 25.1 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 6.5 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 28.7 | 26.5 | 29.8 |
| vs Weaker (32) | 9.7 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 22.9 | 22.6 | 23.3 |
| % over line | 52% | 55% | 50% | 36% | 29% | 42% | 72% | 73% | 71% |
| % under line | 48% | 45% | 50% | 64% | 71% | 58% | 28% | 27% | 29% |
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.30 | 0.52 | 0.27 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
CSKA Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 2.17 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.52 | 0.74 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
CSKA Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.37 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.62 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.93 | 0.40 | 1.22 | 0.22 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 85.7% | 1.31 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.30 | +15.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 84.6% | 1.26 | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.22 | +11.8% | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 76.0% | 1.46 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.43 | 1.42 | +12.9% | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 13/09/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/10/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 26/02/23 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/08/22 | A | 1-0 |
Septemvri Sofia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 1-1 |
CSKA Sofia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 27/07/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 23/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 6 | 18 | 100% | 3.0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 3.0 | 0.5 | - |
| 2 | Ludogorets | 7 | 17 | 71% | 2.4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 2.4 | 86% | 29% | 14% | - | 0% | 7.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 46 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 3.3 | 83% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | 8.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 2.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 3.0 | 83% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 6 | Septemvri Sofia | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 71% | 43% | 0% | - | 0% | 6.3 | 100% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 67% | 17% | 0% | - | 0% | 9.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Botev Plovdiv | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 2.9 | 71% | 43% | 43% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 67% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 67% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 7 | 4 | 14% | 0.6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.4 | 86% | 71% | 57% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | - |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2.8 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 2.2 | - |
| 12 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 100% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1.9 | 57% | 29% | 0% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |