This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.80
2.13
0.47
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.72
0.72
2.23
0.38
1.17
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.20
1.50
1.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
61.3%
Under 1.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.9%
Under 2.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.7%
Under 3.5
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.4%
No
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.6%
1-0
13.4%
0-1
10.7%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
6.1%
0-2 ✓
5.4%
Septemvri Sofia goals ↓
Spartak Varna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
11%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.1%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.2%
7.5%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Septemvri Sofia goals (down), columns = Spartak Varna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Spartak Varna
2.12
Septemvri Sofia
1.91
Marek
1.79
Montana
1.68
Strumska Slava
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.47
Yantra 2019
1.38
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Pleven
1.32
Litex
1.32
Ludogorets II
1.29
Belasitsa
1.26
Sportist Svoge
1.18
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.12
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.88
Bdin
0.65
Septemvri Sofia is 0.21 points worse than Spartak Varna in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Spartak Varna
1.76
Septemvri Sofia
1.35
Montana
1.35
Dobrudzha
1.26
Yantra 2019
1.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.15
Ludogorets II
1.15
Belasitsa
1.09
Marek
1.06
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Strumska Slava
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.97
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.91
Dunav Ruse
0.88
Litex
0.88
Spartak Pleven
0.85
Bdin
0.56
Septemvri Sofia is 0.41 goals worse than Spartak Varna in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Marek
0.76
Septemvri Sofia
0.76
Spartak Varna
0.82
Strumska Slava
0.82
Montana
0.91
Spartak Pleven
0.94
Belasitsa
0.97
Dobrudzha
1.00
Dunav Ruse
1.06
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.06
Litex
1.06
Yantra 2019
1.09
Ludogorets II
1.15
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Sportist Svoge
1.32
Chernomorets Balchik
1.44
Bdin
1.47
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.65
Septemvri Sofia is 0.06 goals better than Spartak Varna in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Septemvri Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.27
0.60
0.20
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.29
0.58
0.17
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.80
0.13
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.36
0.77
0.00
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Septemvri Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.87
0.33
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.58
0.83
0.33
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
1.33
0.33
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.36
1.46
0.38
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Septemvri Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bertrand Fourrier32%
Ali Aruna25%
Nicolas Fontaine20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Kubrat Onashchi5%
Martin Hristov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Kleri Serber0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Valon Hamdiu50%
Ali Aruna50%
Victor Ochayi44%
Ayoub Abou Oulam33%
Yoan Baurenski32%
Mateo Stamatov29%
Sebas Wade22%
Valentine Ozornwafor21%
Kleri Serber20%
Krasian Kolev20%
Georgi Varbanov17%
Simeon Vasilev17%
Galin Ivanov16%
Kubrat Onashchi15%
Nicolas Fontaine13%
Bozhidar Tomovski11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Bertrand Fourrier11%
Moi Parra10%
Martin Hristov10%
Stefan Stojanović9%
Robin Schouten8%
Yanko Georgiev6%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kleri Serber20%
Robin Schouten15%
Mateo Stamatov14%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Galin Ivanov5%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Bertrand Fourrier0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Stoyan Stoichkov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Victor Ochayi0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Edney Ribeiro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bertrand Fourrier21%
Kleri Serber20%
Victor Ochayi11%
Edney Ribeiro11%
Stoyan Stoichkov7%
Nicolas Fontaine7%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Mateo Stamatov0%
Galin Ivanov0%
Robin Schouten0%
Valon Hamdiu0%
Valentine Ozornwafor0%
Dominik Ivkić0%
Faiz Mattoir0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Krasian Kolev0%
Bozhidar Tomovski0%
Martin Hristov0%
Simeon Vasilev0%
Stefan Stojanović0%
Moi Parra0%
Borislav Marinov0%
Zahari Atanasov0%
Sebas Wade0%
Kubrat Onashchi0%
Ali Aruna0%
Gerard Franzetti0%
Spartak Varna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jota Lopes40%
Georg Stojanovski29%
Berna25%
Jota Lopes14%
Xandy12%
Ilker Budinov11%
Martin Georgiev10%
Dimo Krastev9%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Deyan Lozev40%
Ilker Budinov33%
Damyan Yordanov33%
Alexander Georgiev27%
Angel Granchov26%
Petar Prindzhev25%
Georg Stojanovski24%
Maksym Kovalyov21%
Jota Lopes20%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov18%
Dimo Krastev18%
Pedro Victor17%
Tsvetoslav Marinov15%
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Jota Lopes14%
Daniel Ivanov12%
Ivan Aleksiev11%
Emmanuel John10%
Martin Georgiev10%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo9%
Emil Yanchev6%
Tailson0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Tales0%
Xandy0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Berna0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Georg Stojanovski12%
Angel Granchov11%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov9%
Boris Ivanov9%
Berna8%
Emil Yanchev6%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Xandy4%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georg Stojanovski29%
Xandy12%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Daniel Ivanov0%
Pedro Victor0%
Berna0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (22)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
C1B (19)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Septemvri Sofia's squad is €2m less valuable than Spartak Varna's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
Septemvri Sofia's attack is €1m less valuable than Spartak Varna's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
DOB (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Septemvri Sofia and Spartak Varna have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (11)
€3m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
MAR (9)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Septemvri Sofia's defence is €1m less valuable than Spartak Varna's (€2m vs €3m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Marek
Montana
Strumska Slava
Dobrudzha
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
Yantra 2019
Dunav Ruse
Spartak Pleven
Litex
Ludogorets II
Belasitsa
Sportist Svoge
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets Balchik
Maritsa Plovdiv
Bdin