Sevilla vs Espanyol Result & Analysis

Sevilla are tipped to lift the trophy, the model favouring a home win with a 47% probability, while a draw sits at 29% and Espanyol’s chances are 24%. The expected goal count is 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% chance. In recent outings Sevilla have scored an average of one goal and conceded 0.8 at home against similarly matched opponents, whereas Espanyol, on the road, have also netted one goal but have given up 1.31 against comparable sides. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (94.8%), Over 2.5 cards (91.0%), Over 21.5 fouls (88.6%), Over 3.5 cards (79.6%), Over 23.5 fouls (78.7%), Under 3.5 (78.5%) and Under 11.5 corners (71.7%). Each pick is presented with its own probability, and no other outcomes are assigned win chances.

Sevilla’s win extends a recent run that had begun with a loss, while Espanyol’s victory streak has stalled after two straight defeats. The final score was 2-1, confirming a home win. The model had picked a home win with a 47% probability, and it was correct. The suggested selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 88.6%, Over 3.5 cards at 79.6%, Over 23.5 fouls at 78.7%, Under 3.5 at 78.5%, and Under 11.5 corners at 71.7%. All of these selections were settled, with each hit as predicted.