PythiaFootballBETA
Pythia gives Sevilla a 22% win probability against Real Madrid in the Spain: La Liga on 2026-05-17, with 27% for the draw and 51% for Real Madrid. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 3.5 cards (80%), Over 21.5 fouls (80%), Over 1.5 (75%), Under 3.5 (74%).
The win extends Sevilla's streak of defeats to four games, following their 0-1 loss to Real Madrid. The final score confirmed the away team's victory, with a 0-1 margin. The model correctly predicted an away win, Real Madrid's selection, with a pre-match probability of 51%. Real Madrid's recent form took a hit after their 1-5 loss to Villarreal, but they bounced back with this win. The model's selections largely came in, with over 21.5 fouls (77.8%) and over 3.5 cards (77.6%) both hitting, while under 3.5 (73.5%) and over 1.5 (74.6%) missed. The model's call on an away win was correct, as Real Madrid secured a narrow 0-1 victory.
Sevilla| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.07 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.60 | 2.40 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 3.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.10 | 1.30 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
Real Madrid| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.17 | 2.35 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.67 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 2.19 | 0.90 | 2.54 | 0.92 | 1.62 | 0.88 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Real Madrid goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.6% | 11% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 13% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
SevillaReal MadridSevilla| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 27.0 | 28.2 | 25.8 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 11.1 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 22.9 | 22.0 | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (31) | 9.2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 27.0 | 28.6 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 8.2 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 29.4 | 30.5 | 27.2 |
| % over line | 46% | 44% | 48% | 68% | 80% | 56% | 82% | 84% | 80% |
| % under line | 54% | 56% | 52% | 32% | 20% | 44% | 18% | 16% | 20% |
Real Madrid| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 23.7 | 24.0 | 23.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 11.5 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 23.3 | 25.2 | 21.7 |
| vs Weaker (39) | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 23.8 | 23.6 | 23.9 |
| % over line | 60% | 56% | 64% | 56% | 48% | 64% | 66% | 68% | 64% |
| % under line | 40% | 44% | 36% | 44% | 52% | 36% | 34% | 32% | 36% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 cards | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/05/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/12/24 | A | 4-2 | |
| 25/02/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/10/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/05/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/10/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 17/04/22 | H | 2-3 |
Sevilla| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
Real Madrid| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 94 | 82% | 2.5 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 3.4 | 89% | 74% | 42% | 11.3 | 68% | 4.5 | 51% | 21.4 | 50% | 1301 | 589 | 298 | 413 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 86 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 55% | 26% | 9.9 | 55% | 4.8 | 54% | 24.4 | 68% | 1256 | 712 | 250 | 294 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 58% | 1.9 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.1 | 92% | 58% | 37% | 9.1 | 45% | 4.3 | 58% | 24.1 | 61% | 360 | 168 | 55 | 137 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 69 | 55% | 1.8 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 26% | 10.8 | 61% | 4.4 | 59% | 20.9 | 39% | 540 | 226 | 123 | 190 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 60 | 39% | 1.6 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 2.8 | 89% | 53% | 26% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 65% | 23.7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 2.7 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 8.4 | 29% | 4.4 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 200 | 81 | 39 | 80 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 51 | 39% | 1.3 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 1.8 | 58% | 26% | 5% | 8.9 | 37% | 5.6 | 79% | 29.8 | 100% | 94 | 46 | 25 | 23 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 40% |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50 | 32% | 1.3 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 2.2 | 71% | 37% | 16% | 10.9 | 66% | 5.3 | 74% | 24.5 | 76% | 94 | 29 | 11 | 54 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 24% | 9.9 | 45% | 4.6 | 68% | 24.2 | 66% | 147 | 54 | 46 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 46 | 29% | 1.2 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 3.2 | 82% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 53% | 5.0 | 63% | 26.6 | 76% | 270 | 132 | 54 | 83 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 45% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.5 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 45 | 34% | 1.2 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.7 | 74% | 47% | 21% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 67% | 24.3 | 66% | 236 | 103 | 57 | 76 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | 43 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 2.8 | 79% | 58% | 39% | 8.3 | 34% | 4.6 | 71% | 28.3 | 92% | 127 | 34 | 37 | 56 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.9 | 74% | 28.4 | 95% | 78 | 26 | 22 | 29 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 15 | Sevilla | 38 | 43 | 32% | 1.1 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 55% | 26% | 9.3 | 50% | 5.2 | 68% | 27.6 | 82% | 163 | 65 | 28 | 70 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 2.5 | 68% | 50% | 26% | 8.6 | 32% | 5.1 | 79% | 25.1 | 82% | 99 | 51 | 13 | 35 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 2.7 | 84% | 63% | 21% | 10.0 | 58% | 4.7 | 62% | 24.6 | 74% | 77 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 2.8 | 87% | 45% | 29% | 10.2 | 47% | 4.9 | 71% | 25.3 | 76% | 111 | 68 | 15 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 16% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.4 | 50% | 25.0 | 71% | 199 | 83 | 33 | 84 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 29 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 2.3 | 66% | 39% | 16% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.2 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 61 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 46% |