Shakhter Karagandy’s recent five-game winning streak and a 3-0 victory over Yelimay Semey set the tone for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting a home win. The expected total of 3.2 goals and a 3-goal total probability of 22% reinforce the likelihood of an open match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.5% chance. Shakhter’s home form shows an average of 3.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Akademiya Ontustik’s away record averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Home +2 handicap (92.3%), Under 5.5 (89.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.3%) and Home under 3.5 goals (84.5%). Home win probability stands at 58%, draw at 23%, and away win at 19%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shakhter Karagandy win
61.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik win
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shakhter Karagandy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.17
2.94
0.94
2.00
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
2.54
1.17
3.14
1.00
1.70
1.40
vs Weaker (4)
3.25
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.70
2.13
2.00
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.70
2.36
2.09
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.25
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.4%
Under 2.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
7.8%
3-1
7.1%
3-0
6.8%
2-2
5.2%
0-0
4.9%
Shakhter Karagandy goals ↓
Akademiya Ontustik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
3.3%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.8%
10%
4.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.8%
7.1%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
4
3.7%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Karagandy goals (down), columns = Akademiya Ontustik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.62 points better than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 2.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Shakhter Karagandy is 1.43 goals better than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals scored per game (3.43 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.96 goals better than Akademiya Ontustik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.29 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shakhter Karagandy or Draw
83.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Shakhter Karagandy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy or Akademiya Ontustik
78.3%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Shakhter Karagandy + Akademiya Ontustik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
38.1%
Avg Implied -
62%
22%
16%
covers Draw + Akademiya Ontustik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5
Over
88.6%
Under
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5
Over
63.7%
Under
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 3.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shakhter Karagandy, so a minus line means Shakhter Karagandy give that many goals of a start and Akademiya Ontustik receive them. At -1, Shakhter Karagandy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shakhter Karagandy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy -2
20.8%
Draw -2
18.9%
Akademiya Ontustik +2
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy -1
39.7%
Draw -1
22.2%
Akademiya Ontustik +1
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy +1
83.5%
Draw +1
10.3%
Akademiya Ontustik -1
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy +2
93.8%
Draw +2
4.4%
Akademiya Ontustik -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shakhter Karagandy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.67
1.07
0.57
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.93
0.87
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.78
1.09
1.00
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shakhter Karagandy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.57
1.94
0.44
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
0.50
2.07
0.43
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.13
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.91
1.27
1.09
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2