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Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys Result & Analysis

Date: 24/07/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 4-1
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Vs
63%
19%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arys
Arys
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Shakhter Karagandy win✓ Hit
63.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arys win✗ Miss
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W22D33D21W11D50W20W20W23L23LH·EKI08/08A·AKT14/08H·SPO22/08H·ALT29/08A·AKA11/09H·ZHE19/09A·AKA25/09H·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.572.671.271.601.87
vs Stronger (4)0.751.750.501.501.002.00
vs Similar (24)2.331.543.001.251.671.83
vs Weaker (2)2.501.503.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W12L01L14L12L22D16L11D04L04LA·AKT20/09A·AKZ23/09H·AKZ27/09A·ULY03/10H·SPO10/10H·ZHE17/10A·KAS25/10A·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.972.371.071.930.872.80
vs Stronger (8)1.123.121.252.001.004.25
vs Similar (22)0.912.091.001.910.822.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.9%
Under 2.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.3%
Under 3.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.6%
2-0
7.1%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
5.0%
3-2
4.9%
Shakhter Karagandy goals ↓
Arys goals →
01234
03.0%2.2%1.9%0.8%0.3%
15.0%8.0%4.7%2.0%0.6%
27.1%9.1%5.9%2.5%0.8%
35.9%7.6%4.9%2.1%0.7%
43.7%4.8%3.1%1.3%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Karagandy goals (down), columns = Arys goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.00
Taraz
1.71
Ekibastuz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Jaiyq
1.14
Aktobe Jas
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Astana II
0.86
Arys
0.71
Tobol 2
0.43
Shakhter Karagandy is 2.29 points better than Arys in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.71).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.33
Sport Academy Kairat
2.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.83
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.57
Aktobe Jas
1.29
Taraz
1.14
Khan Tengri
1.14
Jaiyq
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Arys
0.71
Astana II
0.71
Shakhter Karagandy is 2.62 goals better than Arys in terms of goals scored per game (3.33 vs 0.71).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.33
Sport Academy Kairat
0.43
Taraz
0.86
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Akademiya Ontustik
1.29
Khan Tengri
1.43
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.71
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.00
Tobol 2
2.43
Astana II
2.57
Aktobe Jas
3.00
Shakhter Karagandy is 1.38 goals better than Arys in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 1.71).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D03L11D11D20W10W00D11D20WH·EKI08/08A·AKT14/08H·SPO22/08H·ALT29/08A·AKA11/09H·ZHE19/09A·AKA25/09H·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.770.930.600.600.93
vs Stronger (4)0.000.750.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.920.831.080.670.751.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D00D01L01L10W03L10W03L02LA·AKT20/09A·AKZ23/09H·AKZ27/09A·ULY03/10H·SPO10/10H·ZHE17/10A·KAS25/10A·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.970.330.870.271.07
vs Stronger (8)0.251.380.501.000.001.75
vs Similar (22)0.320.820.270.820.360.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D30W10W00D30W10W20W12L03LH·EKI08/08A·AKT14/08H·SPO22/08H·ALT29/08A·AKA11/09H·ZHE19/09A·AKA25/09H·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.801.730.671.000.93
vs Stronger (4)0.751.000.501.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.420.711.920.580.920.83
vs Weaker (2)2.001.502.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L01L13L11D12L13L01L01L02LA·AKT20/09A·AKZ23/09H·AKZ27/09A·ULY03/10H·SPO10/10H·ZHE17/10A·KAS25/10A·KHA15/03H·AKT09/04H·TUR16/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.400.731.070.601.73
vs Stronger (8)0.881.750.751.001.002.50
vs Similar (22)0.591.270.731.090.451.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.572.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
SK wins
1
Draws
1
ARY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys · H/A from SK
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/22HSK Vs Arys0-0
08/05/22AArys Vs SK2-0

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/26HSK Vs Okzhetpes2-3
17/10/25AKaspiy Vs SK3-2
03/10/25HSK Vs Taraz2-0
25/09/25AAkademiya Ontustik Vs SK0-2
19/09/25HSK Vs Zhetisay5-0
11/09/25AAKAS Vs SK1-1
29/08/25HSK Vs Altay (Kazakhstan)2-1
22/08/25HSK Vs Sport Academy Kairat3-3
14/08/25AAktobe Jas Vs SK2-2
08/08/25HSK Vs Ekibastuz4-0

ArysArys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/07/26HARY Vs Turan Turkistan0-4
09/04/26HARY Vs Aktobe0-4
15/03/25AKhan Tengri Vs ARY1-1
25/10/24AKaspiy Vs ARY6-1
17/10/24HARY Vs Zhetisay2-2
10/10/24HARY Vs Sport Academy Kairat1-2
03/10/24AUlytau Vs ARY4-1
27/09/24HARY Vs Akzhayik0-1
23/09/24AAkzhayik Vs ARY2-1
20/09/24AAktobe Jas Vs ARY0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.22
HomeDWWWL1.56
AwayLDDWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%44%24%
AVG goals3.063.083.04
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %64%64%64%
Over 3.5 %38%44%32%
Scored1.481.801.16
Conceded1.581.281.88
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet24%40%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Arys
Arys
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL0.70
HomeLLDLL0.72
AwayWLLLD0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%16%20%
AVG goals3.483.123.84
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %66%56%76%
Over 3.5 %38%36%40%
Scored1.081.041.12
Conceded2.402.082.72
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet12%8%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy618
100%
3.0
202+18
3.7
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.30.3
-
2Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
3Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik716
71%
2.3
149+5
3.3
86%
86%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.3
-
4Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat714
57%
2.0
173+14
2.9
57%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.4
-
5TarazTaraz712
43%
1.7
86+2
2.0
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz69
50%
1.5
1112-1
3.8
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
8JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
9Khan TengriKhan Tengri77
29%
1.0
810-2
2.6
57%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
10Aktobe JasAktobe Jas77
29%
1.0
921-12
4.3
86%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.0
-
11Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
12Astana IIAstana II76
29%
0.9
518-13
3.3
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.6
-
13ArysArys75
14%
0.7
512-7
2.4
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 273
14%
0.4
1117-6
4.0
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.4
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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