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Shakhter Karagandy vs Kaspiy Result & Analysis

Date: 11/07/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 2-3
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Vs
33%
27%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kaspiy
Kaspiy
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Shakhter Karagandy win✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy win✓ Hit
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W00D22D31W21W12L42W21W41W04LA·KHA25/04H·IRT01/05A·EKI09/05H·AKT16/05A·SPO22/05A·ALT29/05H·AKA13/06A·ZHE20/06H·AKA27/06A·TAR04/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.771.501.431.062.06
vs Stronger (11)0.731.910.831.830.602.00
vs Similar (18)1.501.721.861.141.272.09
vs Weaker (1)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KaspiyKaspiy

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W21W12L40W30W10W20W53W30W00DH·AKA24/04A·TAR02/05H·ALT09/05H·YAS15/05A·SD 22/05H·KHA28/05A·IRT13/06H·EKI20/06A·AKT26/06H·SPO04/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.300.832.690.881.860.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.880.882.080.921.640.82
vs Weaker (6)4.000.675.330.672.670.67
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.5%
0-2
6.3%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
Shakhter Karagandy goals ↓
Kaspiy goals →
01234
06.5%7.1%6.3%3.3%1.3%
16.3%13%8.8%4.5%1.7%
25.2%7.9%6.1%3.1%1.2%
32.4%3.7%2.8%1.5%0.6%
40.8%1.3%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Karagandy goals (down), columns = Kaspiy goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kaspiy
2.62
Irtysh
2.35
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.08
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Zhetisay
1.62
Sport Academy Kairat
1.54
Akademiya Ontustik
1.50
Taraz
1.35
AKAS
1.27
Ekibastuz
1.08
SD Family
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.69
Aktobe Jas
0.52
Yassy Turkistan
0.39
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.62 points worse than Kaspiy in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.62).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kaspiy
2.85
Irtysh
2.73
Shakhter Karagandy
2.32
Sport Academy Kairat
2.23
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.04
Zhetisay
1.69
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Taraz
1.65
AKAS
1.62
Ekibastuz
1.38
SD Family
1.27
Aktobe Jas
1.24
Khan Tengri
1.04
Yassy Turkistan
0.70
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.53 goals worse than Kaspiy in terms of goals scored per game (2.32 vs 2.85).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Irtysh
0.77
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.92
Kaspiy
1.04
Zhetisay
1.35
Shakhter Karagandy
1.36
Taraz
1.46
AKAS
1.50
Sport Academy Kairat
1.62
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Khan Tengri
2.12
Ekibastuz
2.31
Aktobe Jas
2.60
SD Family
2.88
Yassy Turkistan
3.09
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.32 goals worse than Kaspiy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.04).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D10W11D11D22D11D10W02LA·KHA25/04H·IRT01/05A·EKI09/05H·AKT16/05A·SPO22/05A·ALT29/05H·AKA13/06A·ZHE20/06H·AKA27/06A·TAR04/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.870.570.710.441.00
vs Stronger (11)0.180.820.170.830.200.80
vs Similar (18)0.670.940.860.710.551.09
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KaspiyKaspiy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D01L20W00D00D10W40W10W00DH·AKA24/04A·TAR02/05H·ALT09/05H·YAS15/05A·SD 22/05H·KHA28/05A·IRT13/06H·EKI20/06A·AKT26/06H·SPO04/07
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.301.380.310.570.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.830.381.000.380.640.36
vs Weaker (6)1.670.003.000.000.330.00
Clean sheet %77% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D11D21W10W01L20W10W31W02LA·KHA25/04H·IRT01/05A·EKI09/05H·AKT16/05A·SPO22/05A·ALT29/05H·AKA13/06A·ZHE20/06H·AKA27/06A·TAR04/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.900.930.710.621.06
vs Stronger (11)0.551.090.671.000.401.20
vs Similar (18)0.830.781.000.430.731.00
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaspiy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KaspiyKaspiy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W11D20W30W10W10W13L20W00DH·AKA24/04A·TAR02/05H·ALT09/05H·YAS15/05A·SD 22/05H·KHA28/05A·IRT13/06H·EKI20/06A·AKT26/06H·SPO04/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.531.310.561.290.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.040.501.080.541.000.45
vs Weaker (6)2.330.672.330.672.330.67
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaspiy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAS (8)
€2m
IRT (7)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IRT (13)
€2m
KAS (11)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
SK wins
1
Draws
2
KAS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shakhter Karagandy vs Kaspiy · H/A from SK
DateH/AGameScore
23/07/23HSK Vs Kaspiy1-0
27/05/23AKaspiy Vs SK1-1
15/09/22HSK Vs Kaspiy0-1
27/04/22AKaspiy Vs SK4-0

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/25ATaraz Vs SK4-0
27/06/25HSK Vs Akademiya Ontustik4-1
20/06/25AZhetisay Vs SK1-2
13/06/25HSK Vs AKAS4-2
29/05/25AAltay (Kazakhstan) Vs SK2-1
22/05/25ASport Academy Kairat Vs SK1-2
16/05/25HSK Vs Aktobe Jas3-1
09/05/25AEkibastuz Vs SK2-2
01/05/25HSK Vs Irtysh0-0
25/04/25AKhan Tengri Vs SK2-3

KaspiyKaspiy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/25HKAS Vs Sport Academy Kairat0-0
26/06/25AAktobe Jas Vs KAS0-3
20/06/25HKAS Vs Ekibastuz5-3
13/06/25AIrtysh Vs KAS0-2
28/05/25HKAS Vs Khan Tengri1-0
22/05/25ASD Family Vs KAS0-3
15/05/25HKAS Vs Yassy Turkistan4-0
09/05/25HKAS Vs Altay (Kazakhstan)1-2
02/05/25ATaraz Vs KAS1-2
24/04/25HKAS Vs Akademiya Ontustik3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.02
HomeWDWWW1.46
AwayDWLWL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%38%15%
AVG goals2.742.542.92
Over 1.5 %72%67%77%
Over 2.5 %58%50%65%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.101.330.88
Conceded1.641.212.04
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet18%33%4%
Corners---
Cards2.203.330.50
Kaspiy
Kaspiy
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD2.06
HomeLWWWD2.15
AwayWWWWW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%67%57%
AVG goals3.043.632.35
Over 1.5 %78%81%74%
Over 2.5 %62%67%57%
Over 3.5 %32%48%13%
Scored2.082.521.57
Conceded0.961.110.78
BTTS48%56%39%
Clean Sheet46%41%52%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KaspiyKaspiy2668
85%
2.6
7427+47
3.9
88%
81%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1212.81.0
-
2IrtyshIrtysh2661
73%
2.3
7120+51
3.5
77%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.70.8
-
3Altay (Kazakhstan)Altay (Kazakhstan)2552
64%
2.1
5123+28
3.0
84%
64%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.9
-
4Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2550
60%
2.0
5834+24
3.7
96%
80%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5ZhetisayZhetisay2642
50%
1.6
4435+9
3.0
77%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.3
-
6Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat2640
46%
1.5
5842+16
3.8
85%
77%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.6
-
7Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik2639
46%
1.5
4444+0
3.4
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8TarazTaraz2635
38%
1.3
4338+5
3.1
88%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9AKASAKAS2633
38%
1.3
4239+3
3.1
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
10EkibastuzEkibastuz2628
31%
1.1
3660-24
3.7
81%
69%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.3
-
11SD FamilySD Family2623
27%
0.9
3375-42
4.2
85%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.9
-
12Khan TengriKhan Tengri2618
19%
0.7
2755-28
3.2
85%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
13Aktobe JasAktobe Jas2513
8%
0.5
3165-34
3.8
92%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.6
-
14Yassy TurkistanYassy Turkistan239
9%
0.4
1671-55
3.8
83%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.1
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

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