PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Shakhter Karagandy vs Sport Academy Kairat Prediction & Stats

Date: 22/10/2026
Time: 10:00
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Vs
52%
24%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Shakhter Karagandy’s recent five-game winning streak and a 3-0 triumph over Yelimay Semey set a high-scoring tone, while Sport Academy Kairat’s 1-0 win at Arys shows a solid defensive shape. The model favours a home win, with a 50% probability, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.6% probability. Shakhter’s home form shows 3.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Sport Academy Kairat averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Under 6.5 (94.7%), Home +2 handicap (88.0%), Under 5.5 (87.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.7%) and Over 1.5 (85.5%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Shakhter Karagandy win
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat win
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-620W23L23L41W20W10W61W40W30W40WH·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04H·ARY24/07A·TOB31/07H·KAS06/08A·AKT13/08H·AST21/08A·YEL27/08H·KHA03/09
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.501.172.940.942.001.43
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (24)2.541.173.141.001.701.40
vs Weaker (4)3.251.003.001.003.331.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-641W51W60W40W22D01L00D40W10W10WA·YAS17/10H·SD 24/10H·KAS17/07A·AKT24/07H·JAI31/07A·YEL06/08H·AKA13/08A·TUR21/08H·ARY27/08A·TOB03/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.332.471.332.001.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)2.051.552.101.402.001.70
vs Weaker (10)2.600.903.201.202.000.60
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.8%
1-0
7.2%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.3%
Shakhter Karagandy goals ↓
Sport Academy Kairat goals →
01234
05.3%4.3%3.3%1.4%0.4%
17.2%11%6.3%2.6%0.8%
27.8%9.7%6.0%2.5%0.8%
34.9%6.1%3.8%1.6%0.5%
42.3%2.9%1.8%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Karagandy goals (down), columns = Sport Academy Kairat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.88 points better than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 2.12).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Shakhter Karagandy is 1.18 goals better than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of goals scored per game (3.43 vs 2.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.09 goals better than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.29 vs 0.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shakhter Karagandy or Draw
76.1%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Shakhter Karagandy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy or Sport Academy Kairat
75.6%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Shakhter Karagandy + Sport Academy Kairat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sport Academy Kairat
48.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
24%
24%
covers Draw + Sport Academy Kairat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5
Over
85.0%
Under
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5
Over
56.6%
Under
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 3.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Shakhter Karagandy, so a minus line means Shakhter Karagandy give that many goals of a start and Sport Academy Kairat receive them. At -1, Shakhter Karagandy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shakhter Karagandy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy -2
14.2%
Draw -2
16.0%
Sport Academy Kairat +2
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy -1
30.2%
Draw -1
21.5%
Sport Academy Kairat +1
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy +1
76.1%
Draw +1
13.7%
Sport Academy Kairat -1
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy +2
89.8%
Draw +2
6.9%
Sport Academy Kairat -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D20W11D10W00D20W20W20W20WH·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04H·ARY24/07A·TOB31/07H·KAS06/08A·AKT13/08H·AST21/08A·YEL27/08H·KHA03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.601.000.500.860.71
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.000.671.070.570.900.80
vs Weaker (4)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W20W30W20W00D00D20W10W10WA·YAS17/10H·SD 24/10H·KAS17/07A·AKT24/07H·JAI31/07A·YEL06/08H·AKA13/08A·TUR21/08H·ARY27/08A·TOB03/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.530.930.531.200.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.950.650.800.601.100.70
vs Weaker (10)1.300.301.200.401.400.20
Clean sheet %57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W12L03L30W10W10W41W20W10W20WH·TAR03/10A·KAS17/10H·OKZ09/04H·ARY24/07A·TOB31/07H·KAS06/08A·AKT13/08H·AST21/08A·YEL27/08H·KHA03/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.571.940.441.140.71
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.540.502.070.430.800.60
vs Weaker (4)2.251.002.001.002.331.00
Clean sheet %63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W41W40W10W02L01L00D20W00D00DA·YAS17/10H·SD 24/10H·KAS17/07A·AKT24/07H·JAI31/07A·YEL06/08H·AKA13/08A·TUR21/08H·ARY27/08A·TOB03/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.801.530.800.800.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.100.901.300.800.901.00
vs Weaker (10)1.300.602.000.800.600.40
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.2%-------
Under 6.595.9%-------
Under 5.590.1%-------
Home +2 handicap89.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals87.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals87.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals85.0%-------
Over 1.583.1%-------
Under 4.579.1%-------
Home or Draw76.1%-------
Home +1 handicap76.1%-------
Home or Away75.6%-------
Away over 0.5 goals71.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals70.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

No squad-value data for this league.
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
SK wins
1
Draws
0
SAK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shakhter Karagandy vs Sport Academy Kairat · H/A from SK
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/25HSK Vs Sport Academy Kairat3-3
22/05/25ASport Academy Kairat Vs SK1-2

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HSK Vs Khan Tengri4-0
27/08/26AYelimay Semey 2 Vs SK0-3
21/08/26HSK Vs Astana II4-0
13/08/26AAktobe Jas Vs SK1-6
06/08/26HSK Vs Kaspij Aktau 21-0
31/07/26ATobol 2 Vs SK0-2
24/07/26HSK Vs Arys4-1
09/04/26HSK Vs Okzhetpes2-3
17/10/25AKaspiy Vs SK3-2
03/10/25HSK Vs Taraz2-0

Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26ATobol 2 Vs SAK0-1
27/08/26HSAK Vs Arys1-0
21/08/26ATuran Turkistan Vs SAK0-4
13/08/26HSAK Vs Akademiya Ontustik0-0
06/08/26AYelimay Semey 2 Vs SAK1-0
31/07/26HSAK Vs Jaiyq2-2
24/07/26AAktobe Jas Vs SAK0-4
17/07/26HSAK Vs Kaspij Aktau 26-0
24/10/25HSAK Vs SD Family5-1
17/10/25AYassy Turkistan Vs SAK1-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.50
HomeLWWWW1.76
AwayWLWWW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals3.363.483.24
Over 1.5 %86%84%88%
Over 2.5 %70%76%64%
Over 3.5 %46%56%36%
Scored1.882.241.52
Conceded1.481.241.72
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet28%40%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Sport Academy Kairat
Sport Academy Kairat
Kazakhstan: 1. Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.84
HomeWWDDW2.13
AwayWWLWW1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%65%48%
AVG goals3.663.913.44
Over 1.5 %78%83%74%
Over 2.5 %68%74%63%
Over 3.5 %48%48%48%
Scored2.262.651.93
Conceded1.401.261.52
BTTS50%57%44%
Clean Sheet30%35%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy721
100%
3.0
242+22
3.7
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.40.3
-
2Akademiya OntustikAkademiya Ontustik819
75%
2.4
1610+6
3.2
88%
88%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
3Sport Academy KairatSport Academy Kairat817
62%
2.1
183+15
2.6
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.20.4
-
4Turan TurkistanTuran Turkistan716
71%
2.3
168+8
3.4
71%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
5TarazTaraz812
38%
1.5
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
6Kaspij Aktau 2Kaspij Aktau 2710
43%
1.4
1211+1
3.3
71%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
7EkibastuzEkibastuz79
43%
1.3
1215-3
3.9
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
8Astana IIAstana II89
38%
1.1
918-9
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.2
-
9JaiyqJaiyq78
29%
1.1
77+0
2.0
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10ArysArys88
25%
1.0
813-5
2.6
75%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
11Khan TengriKhan Tengri87
25%
0.9
814-6
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
12Aktobe JasAktobe Jas87
25%
0.9
1023-13
4.1
88%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
13Yelimay Semey 2Yelimay Semey 276
29%
0.9
613-7
2.7
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
14Tobol 2Tobol 283
12%
0.4
1118-7
3.6
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →

← all matches