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Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz Result & Analysis

Date: 04/09/2022
Time: 10:00
Final 1-0
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Vs
45%
27%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Shakhter Karagandy are the clear favourites, with a 45% chance of victory, a 27% draw probability and a 29% chance for Taraz to win. The model expects 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7% probability. Shakhter’s home form shows they average two goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opposition, while Taraz, playing away, averages 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals has a 79.1% chance, with the edge noted. The match is set to be a 45% home win, 27% draw, and 29% away win. The team’s recent five-game winning streak and a 3-0 win over Yelimay Semey add confidence, while Taraz’s recent win over Tobol 2 gives them a spark. The prediction points to a tight contest, but Shakhter’s home advantage and recent form make them the likely winners.

Results analysis

Shakhter Karagandy extended a five-game winning streak, beating Taraz 1-0 to secure a home win. The model had picked a home win with a 45% probability, and that call proved correct. The pre-match favourite was indeed the home side, and the result matched the model’s expectation. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which the model gave a 79.1% chance but missed as the match finished with a single goal. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the home team’s victory, while the over-goal pick failed to hit. The game delivered a clean, decisive outcome for Shakhter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Shakhter Karagandy win✓ Hit
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W02L10W02L12L11D23L42W00D20WH·FK 02/05A·ARY08/05H·ORD14/05A·KAI21/05H·KYZ19/06A·FK 25/06H·AKT02/07H·FK 12/07H·ATY20/08A·MAQ26/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.351.292.121.250.671.33
vs Stronger (6)1.331.172.331.330.331.00
vs Similar (11)1.361.362.001.200.831.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W11D20W12L23L11D00D22D11DH·AKT27/04A·MAQ02/05A·KYZ07/05H·AKZ15/05A·KAS22/05A·ORD19/06H·KAI26/06A·ATY02/07A·FK 21/08H·FC 27/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.240.941.430.571.101.20
vs Stronger (8)1.501.251.500.501.502.00
vs Similar (9)1.000.671.330.670.830.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
8.0%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
Shakhter Karagandy goals ↓
Taraz goals →
01234
06.9%6.0%4.5%1.9%0.6%
18.0%13%7.2%3.0%0.9%
27.4%9.3%5.8%2.4%0.8%
34.0%5.0%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.6%2.0%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Karagandy goals (down), columns = Taraz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Astana
2.08
Aktobe
2.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.81
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Ordabasy
1.46
FK Aksu
1.38
Maqtaaral
1.19
Kaspiy
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.15
Shakhter Karagandy
1.15
Atyrau
1.12
Taraz
1.08
Arys
1.08
Akzhayik
0.96
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.08 points better than Taraz in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.77
Aktobe
1.65
Ordabasy
1.38
Kairat Almaty
1.31
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.27
FK Aksu
1.23
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Atyrau
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.08
Taraz
1.04
Kaspiy
1.00
Arys
0.96
Akzhayik
0.73
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.15 goals better than Taraz in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.81
Aktobe
1.08
Taraz
1.12
Akzhayik
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.35
Arys
1.35
Kairat Almaty
1.38
FK Aksu
1.42
Maqtaaral
1.46
Ordabasy
1.50
Atyrau
1.50
Kaspiy
1.62
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.23 goals worse than Taraz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

TarazTaraz

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (17)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (11)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (17)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (8)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (9)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
9.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
FC Astana
5.5
Kairat Almaty
4.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L00D01L10W01L20W30W00D10WH·FK 02/05A·ARY08/05H·ORD14/05A·KAI21/05H·KYZ19/06A·FK 25/06H·AKT02/07H·FK 12/07H·ATY20/08A·MAQ26/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.241.250.000.110.44
vs Stronger (6)0.500.171.000.000.000.33
vs Similar (11)0.730.271.400.000.170.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %76% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D10W02L13L11D00D22D10WH·AKT27/04A·MAQ02/05A·KYZ07/05H·AKZ15/05A·KAS22/05A·ORD19/06H·KAI26/06A·ATY02/07A·FK 21/08H·FC 27/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.590.590.710.290.500.80
vs Stronger (8)1.000.881.000.251.001.50
vs Similar (9)0.220.330.330.330.170.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %65% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L10W01L02L10W03L12L00D10WH·FK 02/05A·ARY08/05H·ORD14/05A·KAI21/05H·KYZ19/06A·FK 25/06H·AKT02/07H·FK 12/07H·ATY20/08A·MAQ26/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.711.060.881.250.560.89
vs Stronger (6)0.831.001.331.330.330.67
vs Similar (11)0.641.090.601.200.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TarazTaraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W11D10W10W10W00D00D00D01LH·AKT27/04A·MAQ02/05A·KYZ07/05H·AKZ15/05A·KAS22/05A·ORD19/06H·KAI26/06A·ATY02/07A·FK 21/08H·FC 27/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.350.710.290.600.40
vs Stronger (8)0.500.380.500.250.500.50
vs Similar (9)0.780.331.000.330.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %65% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
KAS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SK wins
0
Draws
1
TAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shakhter Karagandy vs Taraz · H/A from SK
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/22ATaraz Vs SK2-1

Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/22AMaqtaaral Vs SK0-2
20/08/22HSK Vs Atyrau0-0
12/07/22HSK Vs FK Aksu4-2
02/07/22HSK Vs Aktobe2-3
25/06/22AFK Aksu Vs SK1-1
19/06/22HSK Vs Kyzyl-Zhar1-2
21/05/22AKairat Almaty Vs SK2-0
14/05/22HSK Vs Ordabasy1-0
08/05/22AArys Vs SK2-0
02/05/22HSK Vs FK Tobol Kostanay4-1

TarazTaraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/22HTAR Vs FC Astana1-1
21/08/22AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs TAR2-2
02/07/22AAtyrau Vs TAR0-0
26/06/22HTAR Vs Kairat Almaty1-1
19/06/22AOrdabasy Vs TAR3-2
22/05/22AKaspiy Vs TAR2-1
15/05/22HTAR Vs Akzhayik2-0
07/05/22AKyzyl-Zhar Vs TAR1-1
02/05/22AMaqtaaral Vs TAR0-1
27/04/22HTAR Vs Aktobe3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.29
HomeWLLWD1.62
AwayLLLDW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%50%22%
AVG goals2.653.382.00
Over 1.5 %71%62%78%
Over 2.5 %41%62%22%
Over 3.5 %29%50%11%
Scored1.352.120.67
Conceded1.291.251.33
BTTS47%62%33%
Clean Sheet29%25%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Taraz
Taraz
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDD1.47
HomeWWWDD2.00
AwayDLLDD1.10
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%57%20%
AVG goals2.182.002.30
Over 1.5 %71%71%70%
Over 2.5 %41%29%50%
Over 3.5 %12%0%20%
Scored1.241.431.10
Conceded0.940.571.20
BTTS59%43%70%
Clean Sheet35%43%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC AstanaFC Astana2654
62%
2.1
6521+44
3.3
81%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3252.50.8
-
2AktobeAktobe2652
62%
2.0
4328+15
2.7
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.71.1
-
3FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2647
54%
1.8
4633+13
3.0
85%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.81.3
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2642
46%
1.6
3436-2
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.31.4
-
5OrdabasyOrdabasy2638
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3341.41.5
-
6FK AksuFK Aksu2636
42%
1.4
3237-5
2.7
69%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
7MaqtaaralMaqtaaral2631
31%
1.2
2838-10
2.5
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
8KaspiyKaspiy2631
35%
1.2
2642-16
2.6
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.01.6
-
9Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2630
27%
1.2
3332+1
2.5
73%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.31.2
-
10Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2630
31%
1.2
3135-4
2.5
65%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
11AtyrauAtyrau2629
27%
1.1
3039-9
2.7
77%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.5
-
12TarazTaraz2628
23%
1.1
2729-2
2.2
62%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.1
-
13ArysArys2628
23%
1.1
2535-10
2.3
69%
38%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
14AkzhayikAkzhayik2625
23%
1.0
1931-12
1.9
54%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.2
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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