Shakhter Karagandy are the clear favourites, with a 45% chance of victory, a 27% draw probability and a 29% chance for Taraz to win. The model expects 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7% probability. Shakhter’s home form shows they average two goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opposition, while Taraz, playing away, averages 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals has a 79.1% chance, with the edge noted. The match is set to be a 45% home win, 27% draw, and 29% away win. The team’s recent five-game winning streak and a 3-0 win over Yelimay Semey add confidence, while Taraz’s recent win over Tobol 2 gives them a spark. The prediction points to a tight contest, but Shakhter’s home advantage and recent form make them the likely winners.
Results analysis
Shakhter Karagandy extended a five-game winning streak, beating Taraz 1-0 to secure a home win. The model had picked a home win with a 45% probability, and that call proved correct. The pre-match favourite was indeed the home side, and the result matched the model’s expectation. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which the model gave a 79.1% chance but missed as the match finished with a single goal. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the home team’s victory, while the over-goal pick failed to hit. The game delivered a clean, decisive outcome for Shakhter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shakhter Karagandy win✓ Hit
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shakhter Karagandy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.35
1.29
2.12
1.25
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
1.17
2.33
1.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.36
2.00
1.20
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.24
0.94
1.43
0.57
1.10
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
1.50
1.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.3%
1-0 ✓
8.0%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
Shakhter Karagandy goals ↓
Taraz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.0%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.0%
13%
7.2%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.3%
5.8%
2.4%
0.8%
3
4.0%
5.0%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.6%
2.0%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Karagandy goals (down), columns = Taraz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Astana
2.08
Aktobe
2.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.81
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Ordabasy
1.46
FK Aksu
1.38
Maqtaaral
1.19
Kaspiy
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.15
Shakhter Karagandy
1.15
Atyrau
1.12
Taraz
1.08
Arys
1.08
Akzhayik
0.96
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.08 points better than Taraz in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.77
Aktobe
1.65
Ordabasy
1.38
Kairat Almaty
1.31
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.27
FK Aksu
1.23
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Atyrau
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.08
Taraz
1.04
Kaspiy
1.00
Arys
0.96
Akzhayik
0.73
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.15 goals better than Taraz in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.81
Aktobe
1.08
Taraz
1.12
Akzhayik
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.35
Arys
1.35
Kairat Almaty
1.38
FK Aksu
1.42
Maqtaaral
1.46
Ordabasy
1.50
Atyrau
1.50
Kaspiy
1.62
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.23 goals worse than Taraz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Shakhter Karagandy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Taraz
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Shakhter Karagandy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
9.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
FC Astana
5.5
Kairat Almaty
4.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shakhter Karagandy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.65
0.24
1.25
0.00
0.11
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.27
1.40
0.00
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
76% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.59
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.88
1.00
0.25
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
65% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shakhter Karagandy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.06
0.88
1.25
0.56
0.89
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.00
1.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.09
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.65
0.35
0.71
0.29
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
65% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →