Shakhter Karagandy’s dominant 5-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-0 victory over Khan Tengri, sets the tone for a clear favourite at home. The model rates a home win at 74%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 9%, making the home win the single most likely result. With an expected 3.2 goals, the average total is 3, and the most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 12% chance. Shakhter’s home form shows an impressive 3.14 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against similar opponents, while Taraz, playing away, averages 0.77 goals scored and 1.92 conceded against similar teams. The model’s suggested picks include an Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Home +2 handicap at 97.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.8%, Under 6.5 at 95.2%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.7%, Home or Draw at 91.4%, and Home +1 handicap at 91.4%. These selections reflect the strong home advantage and Taraz’s defensive frailties.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shakhter Karagandy win
74.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Taraz win
8.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shakhter Karagandy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.17
2.94
0.94
2.00
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
2.54
1.17
3.14
1.00
1.70
1.40
vs Weaker (4)
3.25
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.43
2.00
0.80
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.29
2.09
0.55
0.77
1.92
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
2.33
1.67
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.8%
Under 3.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
3-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
6.2%
4-1
4.7%
Shakhter Karagandy goals ↓
Taraz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
8.9%
8.1%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
9.2%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
10.0%
7.6%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
4
6.2%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shakhter Karagandy goals (down), columns = Taraz goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Shakhter Karagandy is 1.50 points better than Taraz in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Shakhter Karagandy is 2.43 goals better than Taraz in terms of goals scored per game (3.43 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Shakhter Karagandy is 0.96 goals better than Taraz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.29 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shakhter Karagandy or Draw
91.4%
Avg Implied -
74%
17%
9%
covers Shakhter Karagandy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy or Taraz
83.0%
Avg Implied -
74%
17%
9%
covers Shakhter Karagandy + Taraz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Taraz
25.7%
Avg Implied -
74%
17%
9%
covers Draw + Taraz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5
Over
91.7%
Under
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 3.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shakhter Karagandy, so a minus line means Shakhter Karagandy give that many goals of a start and Taraz receive them. At -1, Shakhter Karagandy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shakhter Karagandy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy -2
31.3%
Draw -2
21.6%
Taraz +2
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy -1
52.9%
Draw -1
21.5%
Taraz +1
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy +1
91.4%
Draw +1
6.1%
Taraz -1
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shakhter Karagandy)
Shakhter Karagandy +2
97.4%
Draw +2
2.0%
Taraz -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shakhter Karagandy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.67
1.07
0.57
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.87
0.40
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.67
0.91
0.36
0.38
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shakhter Karagandy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.57
1.94
0.44
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
0.50
2.07
0.43
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Taraz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Taraz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.13
0.40
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.62
1.18
0.18
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.33
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Taraz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2