Sheffield Weds are poised for a high-scoring outing, with the model projecting an average of 3.2 goals and a 59% chance of a home win. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 10.4% probability, while the expected total of three goals is 22% likely. Sheffield’s recent form - two consecutive victories, including a 2-1 win over Wycombe - shows they are scoring well at home, whereas AFC Wimbledon, playing away against a stronger side, averages 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded. The model’s selections reflect a defensive tilt: Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Under 5.5 (89.3%), and Under 5.5 cards (88.5%). Offensively, Home +2 handicap (92.6%) and Home over 0.5 goals (87.7%) are highlighted, while Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%) and Away under 2.5 goals (89.6%) suggest limited scoring from the visitors. The probabilities for the match result stand at 59% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 19% for an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sheffield Weds win
58.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon win
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Sheffield Weds
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.77
1.00
1.47
0.53
2.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.60
0.33
1.83
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.85
1.44
1.22
0.64
2.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AFC Wimbledon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.13
1.60
0.87
1.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
2.24
1.00
2.25
0.89
2.22
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.15
1.29
0.86
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.3%
Under 2.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.1%
Under 3.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
1-2
5.3%
Sheffield Weds goals ↓
AFC Wimbledon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.6%
2.5%
0.9%
0.3%
1
7.5%
10%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.9%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.1%
6.9%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.2%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheffield Weds goals (down), columns = AFC Wimbledon goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Sheffield Weds is 0.34 points better than AFC Wimbledon in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Sheffield Weds is 0.32 goals better than AFC Wimbledon in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Sheffield Weds is 0.35 goals better than AFC Wimbledon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.57).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sheffield Weds or Draw
81.2%
Avg Implied -
59%
23%
19%
covers Sheffield Weds + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds or AFC Wimbledon
77.4%
Avg Implied -
59%
23%
19%
covers Sheffield Weds + AFC Wimbledon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
41.3%
Avg Implied -
59%
23%
19%
covers Draw + AFC Wimbledon
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5
Over
87.7%
Under
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 3.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sheffield Weds, so a minus line means Sheffield Weds give that many goals of a start and AFC Wimbledon receive them. At -1, Sheffield Weds must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sheffield Weds win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sheffield Weds)
Sheffield Weds -2
18.6%
Draw -2
18.0%
AFC Wimbledon +2
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sheffield Weds)
Sheffield Weds -1
36.6%
Draw -1
22.0%
AFC Wimbledon +1
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sheffield Weds)
Sheffield Weds +1
81.2%
Draw +1
11.4%
AFC Wimbledon -1
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sheffield Weds)
Sheffield Weds +2
92.6%
Draw +2
5.2%
AFC Wimbledon -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sheffield Weds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.40
0.33
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.00
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.65
0.56
0.00
0.45
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AFC Wimbledon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.53
0.40
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.94
0.38
0.62
0.44
1.22
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.71
0.14
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sheffield Weds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.00
0.60
1.13
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.60
0.17
1.00
0.25
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
1.20
0.89
1.22
0.18
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AFC Wimbledon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.60
1.20
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
1.29
0.62
1.62
0.44
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheffield Weds
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Lowe60%
Louie Barry40%
C. Slattery25%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
G. Otegbayo20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
B. Bannan0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
K. Morrison0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
C. Slattery50%
Jarvis Thornton33%
B. Mitchell25%
B. Bannan20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
J. Lowe0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Louie Barry0%
Sil Swinkels0%
Mason Paul James Burstow0%
K. Morrison0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Bannan40%
C. Slattery25%
K. Morrison25%
J. Lowe20%
Louie Barry20%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Lowe60%
C. Slattery25%
K. Morrison25%
Louie Barry20%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
B. Bannan0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
AFC Wimbledon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Maycock25%
J. Stockley20%
Myles Hippolyte20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Myles Hippolyte40%
A. Yiadom33%
Ryan Johnson25%
A. Smith20%
D. Sweeney20%
Steven Sessegnon20%
Steve Seddon20%
Z. Nelson20%
C. Maycock0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
J. Tilley0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Ogundere33%
J. Tilley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
J. Stockley0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Z. Nelson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Stockley20%
A. Yiadom0%
A. Smith0%
C. Maycock0%
D. Sweeney0%
Steven Sessegnon0%
Joe McDonnell0%
Steve Seddon0%
Myles Hippolyte0%
J. Tilley0%
Ryan Johnson0%
A. Sasu0%
Isaac Ogundere0%
Z. Nelson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Sheffield Weds's squad is €16m more valuable than AFC Wimbledon's (€21m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Sheffield Weds's attack is €5m more valuable than AFC Wimbledon's (€7m vs €2m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Sheffield Weds's midfield is €5m more valuable than AFC Wimbledon's (€6m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Sheffield Weds's defence is €6m more valuable than AFC Wimbledon's (€8m vs €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →