Sheffield Weds are favoured to win, with a 42% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 31% for Blackpool to come away with a result. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which carries a 12.9% probability. Sheffield Weds, playing at home against a team of similar strength, average 1.33 goals scored and concede 1.0, while Blackpool, on the road, average 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 97.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.9%, Under 5.5 goals at 93.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 86.4%, Home +2 handicap at 86.4% and Away under 2.5 goals at 86.1%. Both sides have recently come off wins, with Sheffield Weds’ last match a 7-2 victory over Bromley and Blackpool a 4-0 win over Peterboro.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sheffield Weds win
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Blackpool win
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Sheffield Weds
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.77
1.00
1.47
0.53
2.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.60
0.33
1.83
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.85
1.44
1.22
0.64
2.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackpool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.53
1.50
1.21
1.06
1.81
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
1.43
1.50
1.21
1.07
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
6.9%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.9%
Sheffield Weds goals ↓
Blackpool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
6.4%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
1
7.8%
13%
7.6%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.0%
5.9%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sheffield Weds goals (down), columns = Blackpool goals (across).
Advertisement
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Sheffield Weds is 0.19 points better than Blackpool in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Sheffield Weds is 0.25 goals better than Blackpool in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Sheffield Weds is 0.20 goals better than Blackpool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.41).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sheffield Weds or Draw
68.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Sheffield Weds + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds or Blackpool
72.8%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Sheffield Weds + Blackpool
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Blackpool
58.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Draw + Blackpool
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 0.5
Over
72.9%
Under
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 1.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sheffield Weds, so a minus line means Sheffield Weds give that many goals of a start and Blackpool receive them. At -1, Sheffield Weds must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sheffield Weds win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sheffield Weds)
Sheffield Weds -2
8.5%
Draw -2
12.8%
Blackpool +2
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sheffield Weds)
Sheffield Weds -1
21.3%
Draw -1
20.3%
Blackpool +1
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sheffield Weds)
Sheffield Weds +1
68.9%
Draw +1
17.1%
Blackpool -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sheffield Weds)
Sheffield Weds +2
85.9%
Draw +2
9.2%
Blackpool -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sheffield Weds
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.40
0.33
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.00
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.65
0.56
0.00
0.45
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackpool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.64
0.79
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.50
0.64
0.79
0.43
0.21
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sheffield Weds
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.00
0.60
1.13
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.60
0.17
1.00
0.25
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
1.20
0.89
1.22
0.18
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackpool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackpool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.86
0.43
0.69
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.93
0.86
0.43
0.64
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sheffield Weds) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sheffield Weds over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sheffield Weds over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Blackpool over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sheffield Weds
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Lowe60%
Louie Barry40%
C. Slattery25%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
G. Otegbayo20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
B. Bannan0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
K. Morrison0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
C. Slattery50%
Jarvis Thornton33%
B. Mitchell25%
B. Bannan20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
J. Lowe0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Louie Barry0%
Sil Swinkels0%
Mason Paul James Burstow0%
K. Morrison0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Bannan40%
C. Slattery25%
K. Morrison25%
J. Lowe20%
Louie Barry20%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
J. Lowe60%
C. Slattery25%
K. Morrison25%
Louie Barry20%
Mason Paul James Burstow20%
Ricardo Santos0%
Y. Valery0%
Liam Cooper0%
B. Bannan0%
L. Palmer0%
Joe Lumley0%
B. Mitchell0%
R. James0%
Max Lowe0%
Sil Swinkels0%
G. Otegbayo0%
Harry Gray0%
Jarvis Thornton0%
Blackpool
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Bowler60%
Dion Charles33%
Kylian Kouassi33%
Tom Bloxham25%
Karoy Anderson25%
J. Williams20%
Leighton Clarkson20%
CJ Hamilton0%
Hayden Coulson0%
B. Peacock-Farrell0%
A. Morgan0%
G. Honeyman0%
Andy Lyons0%
Oliver Casey0%
Z. Ashworth0%
Finley Munroe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Finley Munroe50%
Hayden Coulson33%
Z. Ashworth33%
Karoy Anderson25%
CJ Hamilton20%
J. Williams20%
G. Honeyman20%
Josh Bowler20%
B. Peacock-Farrell0%
A. Morgan0%
Andy Lyons0%
Dion Charles0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Oliver Casey0%
Tom Bloxham0%
Kylian Kouassi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dion Charles33%
B. Peacock-Farrell20%
G. Honeyman20%
Oliver Casey20%
CJ Hamilton0%
Hayden Coulson0%
J. Williams0%
A. Morgan0%
Andy Lyons0%
Josh Bowler0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Tom Bloxham0%
Z. Ashworth0%
Finley Munroe0%
Kylian Kouassi0%
Karoy Anderson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Bowler40%
Tom Bloxham25%
Karoy Anderson25%
CJ Hamilton0%
Hayden Coulson0%
B. Peacock-Farrell0%
J. Williams0%
A. Morgan0%
G. Honeyman0%
Andy Lyons0%
Dion Charles0%
Leighton Clarkson0%
Oliver Casey0%
Z. Ashworth0%
Finley Munroe0%
Kylian Kouassi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Sheffield Weds's squad is €11m more valuable than Blackpool's (€21m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Sheffield Weds's attack is €3m more valuable than Blackpool's (€7m vs €4m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Sheffield Weds's midfield is €3m more valuable than Blackpool's (€6m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Sheffield Weds's defence is €4m more valuable than Blackpool's (€8m vs €4m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →