This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.79
0.73
0.60
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (31%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.6%
Under 1.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.0%
Under 2.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
7.0%
Under 3.5
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
29.8%
No
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
22.8%
1-0
16.5%
0-1
14.1%
1-1
13.9%
2-0
7.3%
0-2
5.5%
2-1 ✓
5.2%
1-2
4.5%
Shinnik Yaroslavl goals ↓
Arsenal Tula goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
23%
14%
5.5%
1.3%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
7.3%
5.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
3
2.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shinnik Yaroslavl goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tula goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Baltika
2.03
Torpedo Moskva
1.91
Chernomorets
1.88
Ural
1.74
FC Sochi
1.68
Ska-khabarovsk
1.56
Rodina Moskva
1.47
Enisey
1.44
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Arsenal Tula
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Chayka
1.12
KAMAZ
1.12
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.03
FC UFA
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
Tyumen
0.79
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.79
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 0.18 points worse than Arsenal Tula in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Sochi
1.62
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Chernomorets
1.50
Ural
1.47
Baltika
1.47
Ska-khabarovsk
1.29
Rodina Moskva
1.21
Enisey
1.06
Rotor Volgograd
0.94
FC UFA
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
Chayka
0.91
KAMAZ
0.91
Tyumen
0.88
Arsenal Tula
0.74
FK Sokol Saratov
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.71
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.71
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 0.03 goals worse than Arsenal Tula in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Baltika
0.53
Torpedo Moskva
0.74
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Chernomorets
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
KAMAZ
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.09
Ural
1.12
Enisey
1.15
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.21
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.24
Chayka
1.26
FC UFA
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.47
Tyumen
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 0.35 goals worse than Arsenal Tula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
51%
Enisey
49%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Shinnik Yaroslavl
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arsenal Tula
For 6.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
7.5
12.7
2.3
2.2
2.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
4.5
3.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
10.6
7.5
12.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
0%
100%
24%
24%
24%
-
-
-
% under line
40%
100%
0%
76%
76%
76%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.5
11.0
14.0
2.4
2.2
2.6
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
2.0
-
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
12.5
11.0
14.0
2.4
2.2
2.6
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
3.0
-
3.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
28%
25%
31%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
72%
75%
69%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
11.3
Ural
11.0
Arsenal Tula
10.4
Baltika
10.0
Chernomorets
9.9
Rodina Moskva
9.8
KAMAZ
9.5
FC Sochi
9.4
FK Neftekhimik
8.9
Enisey
8.9
FK Sokol Saratov
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Ska-khabarovsk
8.3
Tyumen
8.3
Torpedo Moskva
6.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
4.7
FC UFA
4.5
Ural
4.1
Enisey
3.8
Chernomorets
3.8
FC Sochi
3.8
Chayka
3.7
Torpedo Moskva
3.7
Tyumen
3.6
Rodina Moskva
3.6
FK Neftekhimik
3.4
Baltika
3.4
Ska-khabarovsk
3.3
Rotor Volgograd
3.3
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
Arsenal Tula
3.1
FK Sokol Saratov
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ural
24.1
Arsenal Tula
23.5
FC Sochi
22.9
Baltika
22.3
Enisey
14.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.8%
Under 9.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.0%
Under 3.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
2.9%
Under 21.5
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.50
0.20
0.47
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.29
0.43
0.21
0.29
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.33
0.33
0.20
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.38
0.34
0.33
0.20
0.43
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.33
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.36
0.36
0.43
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.40
0.40
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.34
0.45
0.40
0.40
0.29
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 21.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 19.5 fouls
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (31)
€30m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Shinnik Yaroslavl's squad is €2m less valuable than Arsenal Tula's (€6m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (10)
€10m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
Shinnik Yaroslavl's attack is €1m less valuable than Arsenal Tula's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and Arsenal Tula have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (15)
€15m
FS (11)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and Arsenal Tula have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Baltika
Torpedo Moskva
Chernomorets
Ural
FC Sochi
Ska-khabarovsk
Rodina Moskva
Enisey
Rotor Volgograd
KAMAZ
FK Neftekhimik
Chayka
FC UFA
FK Sokol Saratov
Tyumen
Alaniya Vladikavkaz