Shinnik Yaroslavl, coming off a defeat to Nizhny Novgorod, faces Arsenal Tula, who recently secured a narrow win against Torpedo Moskva. The model's selection is a Home win, with a 51% probability, the most likely match result. The model favours a Home win by a margin of 1-0, with a 14.9% probability.
In terms of form, Shinnik Yaroslavl scores an average of 1.27 goals at home and concedes 0.45, while Arsenal Tula scores 0.92 goals away and concedes 1.54. The expected total goals is 2.2, with 2 goals being the most likely total.
The model's selection for Under 9.5 corners has a 100% probability, offering a 44% edge, and Under 21.5 fouls is also selected with certainty. Under 3.5 goals is selected with an 82.8% probability, providing a 6% edge. The model's selection for Under 9.5 corners is the standout pick, with a significant edge.
The probabilities for the match result are Home win 51%, Draw 30%, and Away win 19%. Other selections include Under 9.5 corners (100%), Under 21.5 fouls (100%), and Under 3.5 goals (82.8%).
A stunning upset in the Russia: First League as Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 2-2 with Arsenal Tula, extending their run of draws. The win for the home team was not expected, as the pre-match favourite, Shinnik Yaroslavl, had a 51% chance of winning according to the Pythia prediction model. However, the model's call was wrong, as the model had selected a Home win. The model's selection, Home win, was the only selection made, and it was incorrect. The model had also suggested Under 3.5 goals, which missed, with a probability of 82.8%.
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.90 | 1.43 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 1.17 | 0.90 | 1.43 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.33 | 0.94 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.07 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
| Arsenal Tula goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 13% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 15% | 14% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Arsenal Tula
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (50) | - | - | - | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 24% | 21% | 27% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 76% | 79% | 73% | - | - | - |
Arsenal Tula| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 1.7 | 1.7 | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 34% | 35% | 33% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 66% | 65% | 67% | - | - | - |
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.30 | 0.93 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.67 | 0.30 | 0.93 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.46 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal Tula| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 82.8% | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.15 | - | +5.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.3% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.16 | - | - | - | -4.0% | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/07/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/04/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/10/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/05/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/09/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/05/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 28/10/22 | H | 2-1 |
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-0 |
Arsenal Tula| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |