Shinnik Yaroslavl’s defensive record at home - conceding only 0.64 goals per game - sets the tone for a tight, low-scoring encounter, as the model projects an average of 1.9 goals. The most likely total is two, but the single most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 15.5% chance. The model favours a home win, with probabilities of 43% for Shinnik, 33% for a draw, and 24% for KAMAZ. Shinnik’s home form shows 1.43 goals scored and 0.64 conceded against similar opposition, while KAMAZ averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded on the road.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 5.5 (98.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.4%), Under 4.5 (95.2%), and Home +2 handicap (92.3%). Each pick is listed with its probability. The match is expected to stay low-scoring, with Shinnik’s recent 2-game winning streak and KAMAZ’s recent 2-game losing streak hinting at a cautious, defensive contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shinnik Yaroslavl win
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ win
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.97
1.43
0.64
1.00
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.20
0.97
1.43
0.64
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.38
1.25
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.21
1.07
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.8%
Under 1.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
29.5%
Under 2.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.4%
Under 3.5
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
37.9%
No
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.4%
1-0
15.2%
1-1
14.5%
0-1
10.7%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
5.2%
0-2
4.8%
Shinnik Yaroslavl goals ↓
KAMAZ goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
11%
4.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
15%
14%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
2
9.1%
7.2%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
3
3.3%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shinnik Yaroslavl goals (down), columns = KAMAZ goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 0.79 points better than KAMAZ in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 0.33 goals better than KAMAZ in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 0.40 goals better than KAMAZ in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Shinnik Yaroslavl
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
KAMAZ
For 9.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 15.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
1.6
1.5
1.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
-
-
-
1.6
1.5
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
18%
17%
19%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
82%
83%
81%
-
-
-
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
15.0
-
15.0
2.6
2.4
2.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
4.5
6.0
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
15.0
-
15.0
2.5
2.2
2.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
42%
36%
48%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
-
0%
58%
64%
52%
-
-
-
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.7%
Under 3.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Draw
75.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
34%
25%
covers Shinnik Yaroslavl + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl or KAMAZ
66.0%
Avg Implied -
41%
34%
25%
covers Shinnik Yaroslavl + KAMAZ
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or KAMAZ
58.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
34%
25%
covers Draw + KAMAZ
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5
Over
66.7%
Under
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shinnik Yaroslavl, so a minus line means Shinnik Yaroslavl give that many goals of a start and KAMAZ receive them. At -1, Shinnik Yaroslavl must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shinnik Yaroslavl win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
Shinnik Yaroslavl -2
5.5%
Draw -2
12.0%
KAMAZ +2
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
Shinnik Yaroslavl -1
17.5%
Draw -1
23.6%
KAMAZ +1
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
Shinnik Yaroslavl +1
75.1%
Draw +1
16.7%
KAMAZ -1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
Shinnik Yaroslavl +2
91.8%
Draw +2
6.3%
KAMAZ -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
1.07
0.07
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.30
1.07
0.07
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.62
0.44
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.46
0.60
0.47
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.37
0.67
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.75
0.81
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.61
0.80
0.73
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and KAMAZ have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and KAMAZ have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and KAMAZ have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and KAMAZ have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →