Shinnik Yaroslavl’s defense has been the story of the season, conceding just 0.64 goals per game at home against teams of similar strength, while their attack averages 1.43. Tekstilshchik, on the road, has struggled to find the net, scoring only 0.33 goals per match and conceding 0.33 to comparable opponents. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 45% probability, a draw 35%, and an away win 20%. The average goal tally for the encounter is 1.7, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with an 18.7% chance. In line with the defensive outlook, every suggested pick points to an under-goals market: Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 5.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.3%), Under 4.5 (96.7%), and Home +2 handicap (94.4%). Shinnik’s recent form, a draw after a mixed run, and Tekstilshchik’s 0-1 loss after two defeats, reinforce the expectation of a cautious, low-scoring match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shinnik Yaroslavl win
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik win
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.97
1.43
0.64
1.00
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.20
0.97
1.43
0.64
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tekstilshchik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tekstilshchik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.92
0.57
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
1.25
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.3%
Under 1.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.4%
Under 2.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
10.0%
Under 3.5
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
32.8%
No
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.7%
1-0
18.1%
1-1
13.6%
2-0
10.6%
0-1
10.0%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
4.0%
3-0
3.9%
Shinnik Yaroslavl goals ↓
Tekstilshchik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
10.0%
3.6%
0.8%
0.1%
1
18%
14%
4.0%
0.8%
0.1%
2
11%
6.8%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
3
3.9%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.1%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shinnik Yaroslavl goals (down), columns = Tekstilshchik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 0.79 points better than Tekstilshchik in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 1.05 goals better than Tekstilshchik in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl is 0.17 goals worse than Tekstilshchik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Shinnik Yaroslavl
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tekstilshchik
For 3.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
1.3
1.1
1.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
-
-
-
1.3
1.1
1.6
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
16%
12%
20%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
84%
88%
80%
-
-
-
This opponent (Tekstilshchik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tekstilshchik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
9.0
9.0
-
0.7
1.1
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
12.0
12.0
-
0.7
1.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
6.0
6.0
-
0.7
1.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
-
12%
20%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
50%
-
88%
80%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.1%
Under 9.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.4%
Under 3.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Draw
80.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
35%
20%
covers Shinnik Yaroslavl + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Tekstilshchik
65.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
35%
20%
covers Shinnik Yaroslavl + Tekstilshchik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tekstilshchik
54.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
35%
20%
covers Draw + Tekstilshchik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 0.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 1.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 2.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shinnik Yaroslavl, so a minus line means Shinnik Yaroslavl give that many goals of a start and Tekstilshchik receive them. At -1, Shinnik Yaroslavl must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shinnik Yaroslavl win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
Shinnik Yaroslavl -2
6.2%
Draw -2
13.4%
Tekstilshchik +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
Shinnik Yaroslavl -1
19.6%
Draw -1
25.7%
Tekstilshchik +1
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
Shinnik Yaroslavl +1
80.0%
Draw +1
14.4%
Tekstilshchik -1
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
Shinnik Yaroslavl +2
94.4%
Draw +2
4.5%
Tekstilshchik -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
1.07
0.07
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.30
1.07
0.07
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Tekstilshchik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tekstilshchik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.17
0.43
0.00
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.37
0.67
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tekstilshchik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tekstilshchik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.75
0.14
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.71
0.00
1.25
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Shinnik Yaroslavl) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shinnik Yaroslavl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tekstilshchik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
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Under 2.5
74.6%
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Over 23.5 fouls
73.5%
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Under 4.5 cards
70.7%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and Tekstilshchik have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and Tekstilshchik have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and Tekstilshchik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Shinnik Yaroslavl and Tekstilshchik have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
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FC Sochi
Nizhny Novgorod
Veles
Ural
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Rotor Volgograd
Spartak Kostroma
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Enisey
Volga Ulyanovsk
Leningradets
KAMAZ
Chelyabinsk
Ska-khabarovsk