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Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Shirak
Shirak
Vs
16%
26%
57%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Shirak face a clear favourite in Ar Armenia, with the model picking an away win and the odds reflecting a 57% chance for the visitors, 26% for a draw and 16% for the home side. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely scoreline 0-1 for the away team at 13%. Shirak, who have struggled at home against stronger opponents, average 0.57 goals scored and concede 2.43, while Ar Armenia, playing away against weaker sides, put up 2.2 goals and only 0.5 conceded. The model’s selections include an Under 3.5 with 76.2% confidence and an Over 1.5 at 72%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned. This concise preview highlights the predicted result, goal expectation, scoreline, form comparisons and the model’s chosen selections.

Results analysis

The final score was 0-2, an away win that confirmed the model’s pick. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 57% probability and proved correct. The match saw the model’s selections shine: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 76.2% chance, and Over 1.5 goals hit with a 72.0% probability. The most likely scoreline of 0-1 fell short, but the 0-2 result still fit the predicted 2-goal total. Shirak, coming off a win, struggled to break Ararat-Armenia’s solid away form, while the latter’s 2.2 average goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home proved decisive. The favoured outcome landed, and the model’s picks largely came in.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Shirak win✗ Miss
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
57.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ShirakShirak

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L03L10W33D10W11D13L04L00DA·ARA06/03A·ARA12/03A·ALA17/03H·VAN01/04A·FC 11/04H·LER16/04H·BKM20/04A·FC 27/04H·PYU02/05H·ARA08/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.570.671.400.871.73
vs Stronger (17)0.712.350.572.430.802.30
vs Similar (13)0.850.540.750.501.000.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W21W30W20W21W22D14L21W01LA·ALA05/03H·SHI12/03A·VAN17/03H·FC 02/04A·LER10/04H·BKM15/04H·FC 22/04A·PYU27/04H·ARA03/05H·ALA10/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.930.701.810.562.070.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.601.101.500.671.751.75
vs Weaker (20)2.100.502.000.502.200.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
Under 1.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.1%
Under 2.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.0%
1-1
12.4%
0-2 ✓
11.9%
0-0
9.5%
1-2
9.5%
0-3
6.7%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
5.3%
Shirak goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia goals →
01234
09.5%13%12%6.7%2.8%
15.5%12%9.5%5.3%2.2%
22.7%4.5%3.8%2.1%0.9%
30.7%1.2%1.0%0.6%0.2%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
Shirak is 1.11 points worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
Shirak is 1.25 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals scored per game (0.69 vs 1.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
Shirak is 0.78 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ShirakShirak

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D00D12L10W00D01L01L00DA·ARA06/03A·ARA12/03A·ALA17/03H·VAN01/04A·FC 11/04H·LER16/04H·BKM20/04A·FC 27/04H·PYU02/05H·ARA08/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.630.400.600.400.67
vs Stronger (17)0.291.000.431.000.201.00
vs Similar (13)0.540.150.380.250.800.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D20W00D21W10W10W11D00DA·ALA05/03H·SHI12/03A·VAN17/03H·FC 02/04A·LER10/04H·BKM15/04H·FC 22/04A·PYU27/04H·ARA03/05H·ALA10/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.330.880.311.000.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.000.400.670.331.500.50
vs Weaker (20)0.900.301.000.300.800.30
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ShirakShirak

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L03L10W21W00D11D12L03L00DA·ARA06/03A·ARA12/03A·ALA17/03H·VAN01/04A·FC 11/04H·LER16/04H·BKM20/04A·FC 27/04H·PYU02/05H·ARA08/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.930.270.800.471.07
vs Stronger (17)0.411.350.141.430.601.30
vs Similar (13)0.310.380.380.250.200.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W21W10W20W00D12L04L10W01LA·ALA05/03H·SHI12/03A·VAN17/03H·FC 02/04A·LER10/04H·BKM15/04H·FC 22/04A·PYU27/04H·ARA03/05H·ALA10/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.370.940.251.070.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.600.700.830.330.251.25
vs Weaker (20)1.200.201.000.201.400.20
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
Shirak's squad is €6m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€3m vs €8m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
Shirak's attack is €2m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
Shirak and Ararat-Armenia have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
Shirak's defence is €2m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
SHI wins
0
Draws
3
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia · H/A from SHI
DateH/AGameScore
12/03/23AArarat-Armenia Vs SHI1-0
30/10/22HSHI Vs Ararat-Armenia0-5
28/08/22AArarat-Armenia Vs SHI3-0

ShirakShirak

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/23HSHI Vs Ararat0-0
02/05/23HSHI Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-4
27/04/23AFC Urartu Vs SHI3-1
20/04/23HSHI Vs BKMA1-1
16/04/23HSHI Vs Lernayin Artsakh1-0
11/04/23AFC Noah Vs SHI3-3
01/04/23HSHI Vs Van1-0
17/03/23AAlashkert Vs SHI3-0
12/03/23AArarat-Armenia Vs SHI1-0
06/03/23AArarat Vs SHI1-2

Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/23HARA Vs Alashkert0-1
03/05/23HARA Vs Ararat2-1
27/04/23APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA4-1
22/04/23HARA Vs FC Urartu2-2
15/04/23HARA Vs BKMA2-1
10/04/23ALernayin Artsakh Vs ARA0-2
02/04/23HARA Vs FC Noah3-0
17/03/23AVan Vs ARA1-2
12/03/23HARA Vs Shirak1-0
05/03/23AAlashkert Vs ARA0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shirak
Shirak
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLD1.06
HomeWWDLD1.07
AwayWLLDL1.06
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%27%31%
AVG goals2.292.072.50
Over 1.5 %58%60%56%
Over 2.5 %42%27%56%
Over 3.5 %23%20%25%
Scored0.770.670.88
Conceded1.521.401.62
BTTS32%27%38%
Clean Sheet32%40%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat-Armenia
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL2.06
HomeWWDWL2.18
AwayWDWWL1.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %61%65%56%
AVG goals2.422.242.62
Over 1.5 %67%59%75%
Over 2.5 %55%53%56%
Over 3.5 %24%18%31%
Scored1.761.711.81
Conceded0.670.530.81
BTTS39%35%44%
Clean Sheet52%53%50%
Corners7.507.008.00
Cards6.004.008.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC UrartuFC Urartu3683
72%
2.3
6825+43
2.6
67%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.90.7
-
2Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3680
69%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.00.6
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3676
64%
2.1
7027+43
2.7
72%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.8
-
4AlashkertAlashkert3666
56%
1.8
5837+21
2.6
61%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.61.0
-
5VanVan3640
31%
1.1
3859-21
2.7
69%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
6AraratArarat3638
28%
1.1
2942-13
2.0
61%
36%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.81.2
-
7ShirakShirak3636
28%
1.0
2555-30
2.2
58%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
8BKMABKMA3632
19%
0.9
3653-17
2.5
64%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.5
-
9FC NoahFC Noah3632
22%
0.9
3466-32
2.8
75%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5340.91.8
-
10Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh3622
14%
0.6
1659-43
2.1
61%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.41.6
-
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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