Shirak enter the match on a shaky run, having lost their most recent game 0-1 to FC Urartu, while Ar Armenia are fresh from a 1-1 draw with Sardarapat. The model therefore rates the away side as the clear favourite, giving a 69 % chance of an away win, 20 % for a draw and 11 % for a home win. The most likely outcome is a 0-2 victory for Ar Armenia, a 11.9 % probability, and the expected total of goals is 3.1, with the most probable total of two goals at 23 %. Shirak’s home form shows a weak attack, scoring only 0.4 goals per game and conceding 1.6, whereas Ar Armenia’s away form is strong, scoring 2.25 and conceding 1.38 against weaker opponents. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.1 %), Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Away +2 handicap (96.5 %), Under 6.5 (96.4 %), Home under 2.5 goals (95.1 %), Under 5.5 (91.1 %), Away over 0.5 goals (89.4 %) and Draw or Away (88.8 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shirak win
12.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia win
66.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shirak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.73
0.86
1.71
0.81
1.75
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
2.00
0.50
1.60
0.67
2.44
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.27
1.75
2.00
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.73
0.73
1.67
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.12
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
2.27
0.80
2.25
0.38
2.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.5%
1-1
10.0%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
9.7%
0-3
8.2%
1-3
7.0%
0-0
5.8%
0-4
4.5%
Shirak goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
9.7%
11%
8.2%
4.5%
1
3.3%
10.0%
9.8%
7.0%
3.8%
2
1.8%
3.9%
4.2%
3.0%
1.6%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Sardarapat
2.50
Pyunik Yerevan
2.20
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.33
Van
0.17
Shirak is 0.60 points worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
Pyunik Yerevan
1.80
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Syunik
0.50
Van
0.33
Shirak is 0.40 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
Pyunik Yerevan
0.60
FC Noah
0.60
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Syunik
2.17
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Van
3.00
Shirak is 0.40 goals better than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shirak or Draw
33.6%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Shirak + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak or Ararat-Armenia
79.1%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Shirak + Ararat-Armenia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat-Armenia
87.3%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Draw + Ararat-Armenia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shirak over/under 0.5
Over
57.4%
Under
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 3.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shirak, so a minus line means Shirak give that many goals of a start and Ararat-Armenia receive them. At -1, Shirak must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shirak win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shirak)
Shirak -2
1.0%
Draw -2
3.2%
Ararat-Armenia +2
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shirak)
Shirak -1
4.2%
Draw -1
8.5%
Ararat-Armenia +1
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shirak)
Shirak +1
33.6%
Draw +1
23.0%
Ararat-Armenia -1
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shirak)
Shirak +2
56.6%
Draw +2
20.3%
Ararat-Armenia -2
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shirak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.36
0.64
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
0.89
0.10
0.60
0.56
1.22
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.45
1.00
0.75
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.33
0.88
0.25
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shirak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.07
0.19
0.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.26
1.11
0.40
1.00
0.11
1.22
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.82
0.75
1.25
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
0.93
0.27
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.47
1.38
0.12
1.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Shirak's squad is €6m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€3m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Shirak's attack is €2m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Shirak and Ararat-Armenia have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Shirak's defence is €2m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Pyunik Yerevan
Sardarapat
FC Urartu
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van