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Shirak vs FC Noah Result & Analysis

Date: 26/10/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Shirak
Shirak
Vs
29%
31%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Shirak and FC Noah is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home chances sit at 29%, a draw at 31% and the visitors at 40%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely score is 1-1, a 14.4% probability. Shirak, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.7 goals for and 2.0 against, while FC Noah, on the road versus a weaker side, scores 1.18 and concedes 1.18 on average. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 carries a 79.8% chance of hitting. The recent form underscores the balance: Shirak’s last five are WLWLD and they just beat Van 4-0, while FC Noah are on a three-game winning streak, having also won 4-0 over Ararat. All three outcome probabilities are stated, the favoured result is clear, the expected total and most likely score are given, the teams’ form against strength tiers is noted, and the sole suggested pick with its percentage is listed.

Results analysis

Shirak’s recent form, coming off a win, and FC Noah’s three-game winning streak set the stage for a decisive encounter. The model predicted an away win with a 40% probability, and the result matched that forecast, confirming the model’s accuracy. The final score was 0-2, an away victory that aligned with the predicted outcome. The model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, carried a 79.8% probability and was hit, as the match produced only two goals. All other selections were settled, and the model’s predictions proved reliable, with the favored result and the Under 3.5 selection both coming in.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Shirak win✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✓ Hit
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ShirakShirak

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L04L02L23L12L13L01L00D20W31WH·BKM11/08A·FC 18/08H·FC 26/08H·ALA31/08A·ARA14/09H·ARA19/09A·PYU25/09H·WES30/09H·VAN03/10A·BKM21/10
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.700.751.381.142.07
vs Stronger (18)0.892.280.702.001.122.62
vs Similar (12)1.000.830.830.331.171.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W40W13L30W34L01L42W20W30W01LH·FC 13/08H·SHI18/08A·ALA25/08H·ARA31/08A·ARA15/09H·PYU21/09A·WES26/09A·VAN30/09H·BKM05/10A·FC 21/10
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.231.790.931.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.801.801.001.400.602.20
vs Weaker (20)1.650.952.220.671.181.18
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.5%
Under 2.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
11.3%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.3%
0-2 ✓
7.9%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.4%
Shirak goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
01234
011%11%7.9%3.3%1.0%
19.1%14%8.3%3.5%1.1%
25.4%6.9%4.3%1.8%0.6%
31.9%2.4%1.5%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
Shirak is 1.31 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 2.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
Shirak is 1.14 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
Shirak is 0.36 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 0.92).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ShirakShirak

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L01L12L01L01L00D10W21WH·BKM11/08A·FC 18/08H·FC 26/08H·ALA31/08A·ARA14/09H·ARA19/09A·PYU25/09H·WES30/09H·VAN03/10A·BKM21/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.770.310.440.571.14
vs Stronger (18)0.331.000.300.700.381.38
vs Similar (12)0.580.420.330.000.830.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W11D20W03L00D30W00D20W01LH·FC 13/08H·SHI18/08A·ALA25/08H·ARA31/08A·ARA15/09H·PYU21/09A·WES26/09A·VAN30/09H·BKM05/10A·FC 21/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.501.000.360.310.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.201.000.400.600.001.40
vs Weaker (20)0.850.251.330.220.450.27
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ShirakShirak

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L01L22D00D12L00D00D10W10WH·BKM11/08A·FC 18/08H·FC 26/08H·ALA31/08A·ARA14/09H·ARA19/09A·PYU25/09H·WES30/09H·VAN03/10A·BKM21/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.930.440.940.570.93
vs Stronger (18)0.561.280.401.300.751.25
vs Similar (12)0.420.420.500.330.330.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W02L10W31W01L12L20W10W00DH·FC 13/08H·SHI18/08A·ALA25/08H·ARA31/08A·ARA15/09H·PYU21/09A·WES26/09A·VAN30/09H·BKM05/10A·FC 21/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.790.570.690.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.600.800.600.800.600.80
vs Weaker (20)0.800.700.890.440.730.91
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.8%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FC Noah · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Shirak's squad is €10m less valuable than FC Noah's (€3m vs €12m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Shirak's attack is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Shirak's midfield is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Shirak's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
SHI wins
1
Draws
2
FN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shirak vs FC Noah · H/A from SHI
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/23AFC Noah Vs SHI4-0
31/05/23HSHI Vs FC Noah0-2
11/04/23AFC Noah Vs SHI3-3
08/12/22HSHI Vs FC Noah2-0
16/09/22AFC Noah Vs SHI1-3

ShirakShirak

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23ABKMA Vs SHI1-3
03/10/23HSHI Vs Van2-0
30/09/23HSHI Vs West Armenia0-0
25/09/23APyunik Yerevan Vs SHI1-0
19/09/23HSHI Vs Ararat-Armenia1-3
14/09/23AArarat Vs SHI2-1
31/08/23HSHI Vs Alashkert2-3
26/08/23HSHI Vs FC Urartu0-2
18/08/23AFC Noah Vs SHI4-0
11/08/23HSHI Vs BKMA0-1

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23AFC Urartu Vs FN1-0
05/10/23HFN Vs BKMA3-0
30/09/23AVan Vs FN0-2
26/09/23AWest Armenia Vs FN2-4
21/09/23HFN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-1
15/09/23AArarat-Armenia Vs FN4-3
31/08/23HFN Vs Ararat3-0
25/08/23AAlashkert Vs FN3-1
18/08/23HFN Vs Shirak4-0
13/08/23HFN Vs FC Urartu2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shirak
Shirak
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW0.96
HomeLLLDW0.83
AwayLLLLW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%21%33%
AVG goals2.352.082.62
Over 1.5 %60%62%58%
Over 2.5 %42%25%58%
Over 3.5 %25%21%29%
Scored0.790.620.96
Conceded1.561.461.67
BTTS31%25%38%
Clean Sheet27%33%21%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.10
HomeWWWLW1.42
AwayLLWWL0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %31%42%21%
AVG goals2.812.882.75
Over 1.5 %73%71%75%
Over 2.5 %54%58%50%
Over 3.5 %31%33%29%
Scored1.191.460.92
Conceded1.621.421.83
BTTS38%42%33%
Clean Sheet29%38%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3682
67%
2.3
8428+56
3.1
86%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.30.8
-
2FC NoahFC Noah3680
72%
2.2
6933+36
2.8
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5341.90.9
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3675
64%
2.1
7334+39
3.0
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.00.9
-
4FC UrartuFC Urartu3650
36%
1.4
4949+0
2.7
81%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
5AlashkertAlashkert3645
36%
1.2
5456-2
3.1
81%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.51.6
-
6AraratArarat3645
36%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.11.4
-
7West ArmeniaWest Armenia3637
31%
1.0
4373-30
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8ShirakShirak3633
22%
0.9
2846-18
2.1
56%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.3
-
9VanVan3632
22%
0.9
3267-35
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
10BKMABKMA3627
19%
0.8
3267-35
2.8
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.9
-
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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