Shirak’s defensive record at home is fragile, conceding an average of one goal per match against stronger opposition, while their attack lags at 0.7 goals. FC Noah, on the road, has been prolific, scoring nearly two goals per game against weaker teams and conceding only 0.44. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 1.9 goals, most likely settling on a 0-0 draw at 16.3%. The most probable outcome is an away win, with the model assigning 41% to FC Noah, 34% to a draw, and 25% to Shirak. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 87.5% and Under 2.5 goals at 70.3%. Shirak’s recent form shows a win, while Noah is on a three-game winning streak, both ending 4-0 victories. The model’s pick remains the away win, reflecting the stronger offensive edge and defensive frailty.
Results analysis
Shirak’s recent form, ending with a win over Van, suggested a resilient home side, yet FC Noah continued their 3-game winning streak, beating Ararat 4-0. The final score was 0-5, an away win that matched the model’s favourite. The model had picked an away win with a 41% probability, and this call was correct. The expected total of 1.9 goals proved far short of reality, as the match produced five goals, well above the most likely total of 2. The model’s selections Under 3.5 and Under 2.5, with probabilities of 87.5% and 70.3% respectively, both missed, confirming the high-scoring outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shirak win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✓ Hit
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shirak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.73
0.87
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (20)
0.70
1.05
0.70
1.00
0.70
1.10
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.00
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.80
2.67
0.87
1.33
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
0.91
2.40
0.60
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (18)
2.33
0.72
2.78
1.00
1.89
0.44
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.0%
Under 1.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
29.7%
Under 2.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
12.5%
Under 3.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.1%
No
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.3%
0-1
15.2%
1-1
14.5%
1-0
10.6%
0-2
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-1
5.3%
2-0
4.8%
Shirak goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
15%
9.1%
3.3%
0.9%
1
11%
14%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
4.8%
5.3%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
Shirak is 1.40 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
Shirak is 2.14 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (0.93 vs 3.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
Shirak is 1.06 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shirak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.40
0.07
0.40
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (20)
0.10
0.45
0.00
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.40
0.47
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
1.40
0.20
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.11
0.28
1.44
0.56
0.78
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shirak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.67
0.47
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.70
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.47
1.27
0.40
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.55
1.00
0.40
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.22
0.44
1.33
0.44
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Noah
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Matheus Aiás50%
Virgile Pinson17%
Hélder Ferreira17%
Eraldo Cinari0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Sangaré60%
Eraldo Cinari33%
Matheus Aiás33%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan25%
Hélder Ferreira17%
Virgile Pinson0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Virgile Pinson33%
Gonçalo Silva20%
Gonçalo Gregório17%
Eraldo Cinari0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Hélder Ferreira0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Matheus Aiás0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eraldo Cinari33%
Virgile Pinson33%
Matheus Aiás33%
Imran Oulad Omar17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Hélder Ferreira0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Shirak's squad is €10m less valuable than FC Noah's (€3m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Shirak's attack is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Shirak's midfield is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Shirak's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Pyunik Yerevan
Van
BKMA
Ararat
West Armenia
Alashkert
Gandzasar