PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Shirak vs FC Noah Result & Analysis

Date: 16/03/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Shirak
Shirak
Vs
21%
28%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Shirak faces a tough challenge at home, with the model picking an away win for FC Noah. The odds lean 21% for a home victory, 28% for a draw, and 51% for an away triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.4 goals, centring on a 2-goal match; the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance. Shirak’s home form shows an average of 1.0 goal scored and 0.78 conceded against stronger opposition, while Noah’s away record boasts 1.25 scored and 0.5 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 at 77.2% and Over 1.5 at 71.1%. These picks reflect the expected modest goal tally. The match will likely see FC Noah edge out Shirak, who are still recovering from a recent 4-0 win over Van, whereas Noah are on a three-game winning streak after a 4-0 victory over Ararat.

Results analysis

The win extends Shirak’s recent form, while Noah’s three-game winning streak carried them into the match. The final score was 0-2, an away win that matched the model’s pick. The pre-match favourite was the away win at 51%, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested picks also proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 77.2% probability, and Over 1.5 goals hit with a 71.1% probability. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.4%, but the game settled for 0-2, confirming the model’s overall prediction.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Shirak win✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✓ Hit
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ShirakShirak

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L01L11D12L05L23L00D10W14L03LA·VAN19/09H·FC 26/09A·ALA03/10H·ALA17/10A·FC 24/10H·VAN02/11A·ARA09/11H·GAN22/11A·ARA01/12A·PYU09/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.932.001.141.140.752.75
vs Stronger (19)0.742.161.000.780.503.40
vs Similar (11)1.271.731.401.801.171.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L22D11D00D23L21W02L10W04L20WH·SIG06/11H·ALA22/11A·ABE27/11A·VAN02/12H·BKM06/12H·LEG11/12A·DYN18/12H·AZ 19/02A·AZ 26/02A·BKM08/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.231.811.061.361.43
vs Stronger (5)1.002.401.001.001.003.33
vs Similar (15)1.471.071.381.001.571.14
vs Weaker (10)2.100.902.671.171.250.50
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.9%
Under 2.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
12.2%
0-2 ✓
10.2%
0-0
10.0%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
5.2%
Shirak goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
01234
010.0%12%10%5.2%2.0%
16.7%13%9.3%4.7%1.8%
23.6%5.5%4.2%2.1%0.8%
31.1%1.7%1.3%0.6%0.2%
40.2%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Shirak is 1.59 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (0.48 vs 2.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Shirak is 1.63 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (0.63 vs 2.26).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Shirak is 1.19 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 0.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ShirakShirak

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D10W02L03L10W00D00D11D02LA·VAN19/09H·FC 26/09A·ALA03/10H·ALA17/10A·FC 24/10H·VAN02/11A·ARA09/11H·GAN22/11A·ARA01/12A·PYU09/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.830.430.430.311.19
vs Stronger (19)0.320.950.330.220.301.60
vs Similar (11)0.450.640.600.800.330.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L21W01L00D13L01L01L00D02L10WH·SIG06/11H·ALA22/11A·ABE27/11A·VAN02/12H·BKM06/12H·LEG11/12A·DYN18/12H·AZ 19/02A·AZ 26/02A·BKM08/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.700.940.620.710.79
vs Stronger (5)0.601.200.500.500.671.67
vs Similar (15)0.730.530.620.500.860.57
vs Weaker (10)1.100.701.500.830.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ShirakShirak

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L01L10W02L13L00D10W03L01LA·VAN19/09H·FC 26/09A·ALA03/10H·ALA17/10A·FC 24/10H·VAN02/11A·ARA09/11H·GAN22/11A·ARA01/12A·PYU09/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.170.710.710.441.56
vs Stronger (19)0.421.210.670.560.201.80
vs Similar (11)0.821.090.801.000.831.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W00D10W20W01L10W02L10WH·SIG06/11H·ALA22/11A·ABE27/11A·VAN02/12H·BKM06/12H·LEG11/12A·DYN18/12H·AZ 19/02A·AZ 26/02A·BKM08/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.880.440.640.64
vs Stronger (5)0.401.200.500.500.331.67
vs Similar (15)0.730.530.750.500.710.57
vs Weaker (10)1.000.201.170.330.750.00
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.1%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FC Noah
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Shirak's squad is €10m less valuable than FC Noah's (€3m vs €12m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Shirak's attack is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Shirak's midfield is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Shirak's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
SHI wins
0
Draws
7
FN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Shirak vs FC Noah · H/A from SHI
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/25AFC Noah Vs SHI4-0
29/03/25HSHI Vs FC Noah1-2
02/03/25AFC Noah Vs SHI4-0
11/08/24HSHI Vs FC Noah0-5
27/04/24HSHI Vs FC Noah1-0
26/02/24AFC Noah Vs SHI1-0
26/10/23HSHI Vs FC Noah0-2
18/08/23AFC Noah Vs SHI4-0

ShirakShirak

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/26APyunik Yerevan Vs SHI3-0
01/12/25AArarat-Armenia Vs SHI4-1
22/11/25HSHI Vs Gandzasar1-0
09/11/25AArarat Vs SHI0-0
02/11/25HSHI Vs Van2-3
24/10/25AFC Urartu Vs SHI5-0
17/10/25HSHI Vs Alashkert1-2
03/10/25AAlashkert Vs SHI1-1
26/09/25HSHI Vs FC Urartu0-1
19/09/25AVan Vs SHI3-2

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/26ABKMA Vs FN0-2
26/02/26AAZ Alkmaar Vs FN4-0
19/02/26HFN Vs AZ Alkmaar1-0
18/12/25ADynamo Kyiv Vs FN2-0
11/12/25HFN Vs Legia Warszawa2-1
06/12/25HFN Vs BKMA2-3
02/12/25AVan Vs FN0-0
27/11/25AAberdeen Vs FN1-1
22/11/25HFN Vs Alashkert2-2
06/11/25HFN Vs Sigma Olomouc1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Shirak
Shirak
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLL0.94
HomeWLLLW0.87
AwayDLDLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%22%26%
AVG goals2.642.093.11
Over 1.5 %68%52%81%
Over 2.5 %50%35%63%
Over 3.5 %32%22%41%
Scored0.900.781.00
Conceded1.741.302.11
BTTS42%26%56%
Clean Sheet24%35%15%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.86
HomeLDLWW2.25
AwayDDLLW1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%71%32%
AVG goals3.283.253.32
Over 1.5 %82%79%86%
Over 2.5 %66%71%59%
Over 3.5 %42%39%45%
Scored2.162.391.86
Conceded1.120.861.45
BTTS54%54%55%
Clean Sheet38%46%27%
Corners7.086.507.67
Cards4.433.715.14

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia2760
67%
2.2
5025+25
2.8
70%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.9
-
2FC NoahFC Noah2756
59%
2.1
6119+42
3.0
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.30.7
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan2755
63%
2.0
3718+19
2.0
63%
37%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.7
-
4AlashkertAlashkert2753
59%
2.0
4223+19
2.4
74%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.60.9
-
5FC UrartuFC Urartu2749
52%
1.8
4326+17
2.6
67%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
6VanVan2731
33%
1.1
2740-13
2.5
67%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
7BKMABKMA2723
15%
0.9
3042-12
2.7
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.6
-
8GandzasarGandzasar2721
19%
0.8
2041-21
2.3
59%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
9ShirakShirak2713
7%
0.5
1751-34
2.5
67%
44%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.61.9
-
10AraratArarat2713
11%
0.5
2163-42
3.1
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.82.3
-
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

← all matches