FC Noah is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 72% chance of victory. The model rates them highly due to Shirak's poor home form, particularly against stronger opponents, where they have scored an average of just 0.33 goals and conceded 1.33 goals per match.
The most likely match result is an away win for FC Noah, with a 72.4% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, and the most likely scoreline is a 0-2 victory for FC Noah, with a 15.6% probability.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Shirak's home form is concerning, while FC Noah's away form is strong, especially against weaker opponents, where they have scored 1.6 goals and conceded just 0.2 goals per match.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.6% probability, Under 3.5 goals, with a 73.1% probability and a 6% edge, and Away win, with a 72.4% probability and a 3% edge. The probabilities for the match result are 8% for a home win, 20% for a draw, and 72% for an away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Shirak's run of not losing at home. However, the final score of 3-4 was a far cry from the expected 2.6 goals, with the actual total well clear of the predicted 2 goals. The away win was the correct call for the model, who had given it a 72% probability, and it proved to be a correct model's selection. The model's call was correct, as FC Noah came out on top. The model's selection of Away win hit, as it was the actual result. The selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 74.6%. Under 3.5 goals, however, missed, with a probability of 73.1%.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shirak win✗ Miss
7.8%
Avg Implied 11.0% · @ 8.23
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
9.25
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
8.70
Pinnacle
8.67
Draw✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied 19.1% · @ 4.74
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.08
Dafabet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
FC Noah win✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 69.9% · @ 1.30
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
Dafabet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shirak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.73
0.93
1.36
0.50
2.06
vs Stronger (20)
0.55
1.90
0.60
1.10
0.50
2.70
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.40
1.75
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.73
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.69
1.00
1.00
1.83
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
2.64
0.71
3.14
1.14
2.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
@ 1.21-1.2%
Under 1.5
25.4%
@ 3.79+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.22
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.10
10Bet
3.90
888Sport
3.90
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.58
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.71-5.2%
Under 2.5
51.2%
@ 2.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Under
Bet365
2.08
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.9%
@ 2.78-6.2%
Under 3.5
73.1%
@ 1.38+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.88
10Bet
2.70
1xBet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.8%
@ 2.12-5.6%
No
62.2%
@ 1.63+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
No
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
888Sport
1.62
1xBet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
15.6%@ 5.40+7.7%
0-1
14.2%@ 5.74+6.8%
0-3
10.8%@ 7.13+4.9%
1-1
9.1%@ 8.73+4.2%
1-2
8.6%@ 7.77+3.1%
0-0
8.1%@ 11.50+4.4%
1-3
5.9%@ 10.87+2.0%
0-4
5.6%@ 12.10+2.1%
Shirak goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
14%
16%
11%
5.6%
1
3.2%
9.1%
8.6%
5.9%
3.1%
2
1.1%
2.3%
2.4%
1.6%
0.8%
3
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Shirak is 1.60 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Shirak is 1.00 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 2.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Shirak is 0.40 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shirak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.43
0.57
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
0.90
0.20
0.50
0.40
1.30
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
1.07
0.67
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.54
0.57
0.71
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.36
1.71
0.71
0.71
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shirak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.97
0.50
0.79
0.12
1.12
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.10
1.40
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.75
1.25
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.33
0.93
0.33
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.15
0.43
0.29
1.17
0.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.36
1.43
0.43
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.6%
1.21
Betfair
1.22
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.1%
1.38
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+6.2%
✗ Miss
Away win
72.4%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Dafabet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+2.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Noah · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Shirak's squad is €10m less valuable than FC Noah's (€3m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Shirak's attack is €4m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Shirak's midfield is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Shirak's defence is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van