The model favours an away win, with Sardarapat beating Shirak 0-1, a 12.6 % probability. The overall shape of the match is a low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.5 goals and a most likely total of two goals at 27 %. Shirak, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.45 goals scored and concedes 1.45, while Sardarapat on the road against a weaker opponent nets 2.46 and concedes just 0.69. Home win odds sit at 16 %, a draw at 26 %, and the away win at 59 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (98.5 %), Under 5.5 (95.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (95.3 %), Away +2 handicap (94.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (90.1 %), and Under 4.5 (88.6 %). Shirak’s recent form shows a 0-1 loss to FC Urartu, while Sardarapat remains unbeaten in their last five, drawing 1-1 with Ararat-Armenia.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Shirak win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat win
58.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Shirak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.73
0.86
1.71
0.81
1.75
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
2.00
0.50
1.60
0.67
2.44
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.27
1.75
2.00
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.67
2.64
0.64
2.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
0.40
1.50
0.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.64
0.72
2.83
0.75
2.46
0.69
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.5%
Under 2.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.0%
Under 3.5
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.7%
1-1
12.1%
0-2
12.0%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.0%
0-3
6.9%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
5.2%
Shirak goals ↓
Sardarapat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
13%
12%
6.9%
3.0%
1
5.2%
12%
9.5%
5.5%
2.4%
2
2.5%
4.4%
3.8%
2.2%
1.0%
3
0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Shirak goals (down), columns = Sardarapat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Shirak is 1.10 points worse than Sardarapat in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Shirak is 0.90 goals worse than Sardarapat in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Shirak and Sardarapat are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Shirak or Draw
41.3%
Avg Implied -
16%
26%
59%
covers Shirak + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak or Sardarapat
74.5%
Avg Implied -
16%
26%
59%
covers Shirak + Sardarapat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sardarapat
84.2%
Avg Implied -
16%
26%
59%
covers Draw + Sardarapat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Shirak over/under 0.5
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5
Over
82.4%
Under
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 3.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Shirak, so a minus line means Shirak give that many goals of a start and Sardarapat receive them. At -1, Shirak must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Shirak win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Shirak)
Shirak -2
1.1%
Draw -2
3.9%
Sardarapat +2
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Shirak)
Shirak -1
5.0%
Draw -1
10.7%
Sardarapat +1
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Shirak)
Shirak +1
41.3%
Draw +1
24.7%
Sardarapat -1
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Shirak)
Shirak +2
66.0%
Draw +2
18.5%
Sardarapat -2
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Shirak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.36
0.64
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
0.89
0.10
0.60
0.56
1.22
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.45
1.00
0.75
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.23
1.57
0.21
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.44
0.24
1.75
0.25
1.15
0.23
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.9%
Under 0.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.2%
Under 1.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.2%
Under
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Shirak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.07
0.19
0.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.26
1.11
0.40
1.00
0.11
1.22
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.82
0.75
1.25
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.43
1.07
0.43
1.25
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.20
0.48
1.08
0.50
1.31
0.46
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.1%
Under 1.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
Under 2.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Shirak and Sardarapat have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Shirak and Sardarapat have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Shirak and Sardarapat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Shirak and Sardarapat have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van