PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated match between Sigma Olomouc and Mlada Boleslav is shaping up to be a closely contested affair. Mlada Boleslav's recent form, having come off a win against Sparta Praha, suggests they're in good spirits. Meanwhile, Sigma Olomouc is also riding a wave of momentum, having won their last match against Artis.
The model's selection for this match is an away win, which holds a 38% probability. The model also predicts a 35% chance of a home win and a 28% chance of a draw. The expected total goals stand at 2.8, with the most likely total goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 13% probability.
Sigma Olomouc's home form against similar opponents has seen them score an average of 1.75 goals and concede 1.25. Mlada Boleslav, on the other hand, has averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1 goal conceded when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a 78.4% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 76.8% probability. Home win percentage stands at 35%, draw percentage at 28%, and away win percentage at 38%.
A stunning draw in the Czech Liga, as Mlada Boleslav came from behind to hold Sigma Olomouc to a 2-2 draw, extending their run of coming off a win. The win extends their recent form, which had been looking strong. The pre-match favourite, Sigma Olomouc, failed to deliver, and the model's call for an away win was wrong, as Mlada Boleslav did not come out on top. The model's selection, an away win, had a pre-match probability of 38%. The model's call was incorrect, as the actual result was a draw. The model's suggested picks had some success, with over 1.5 goals hitting with a probability of 78.4% and over 21.5 fouls missing, despite a high probability of 76.8%.
Sigma Olomouc| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.56 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.14 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.60 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.17 | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.48 | 1.19 | 1.31 | 1.38 | 1.64 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
| Mlada Boleslav goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 13% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Sigma OlomoucMlada BoleslavSigma Olomouc| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 26.6 | 26.1 | 27.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 9.8 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 25.8 | 24.9 | 26.6 |
| vs Similar (22) | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 26.5 | 24.9 | 27.9 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 8.9 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 27.8 | 29.8 | 25.7 |
| % over line | 50% | 50% | 50% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 80% | 79% | 81% |
| % under line | 50% | 50% | 50% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 20% | 21% | 19% |
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.2 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 24.9 | 25.4 | 24.3 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 9.6 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 23.0 | 24.0 | 22.0 |
| vs Similar (41) | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 25.2 | 25.7 | 24.6 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 27.0 | - | 27.0 |
| % over line | 62% | 60% | 64% | 52% | 48% | 56% | 78% | 84% | 72% |
| % under line | 38% | 40% | 36% | 48% | 52% | 44% | 22% | 16% | 28% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | âś— Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 78.4% | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.19 | -0.4% | âś“ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 15/12/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 18/08/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 16/03/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/10/23 | H | 4-0 | |
| 18/03/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 01/10/22 | A | 1-1 |
Sigma Olomouc| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 19/03/26 | A | 2-0 |
Mlada Boleslav| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 9.8 | 25% | 3.5 | 50% | 27.8 | 100% | 123 | 27 | 35 | 61 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 2 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | 8.7 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 31.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 49% |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.2 | 50% | 25.5 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 4 |  Slovan Liberec | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.0 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 9.0 | 25% | 7.0 | 100% | 26.2 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 47% |
| 5 |  Hradec Králové | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2.0 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 25.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 45% |
| 6 | Sigma Olomouc | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | 8.8 | 50% | 1.8 | 0% | 26.8 | 50% | 30 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 7 |  Teplice | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 5.0 | 75% | 75% | 75% | 11.8 | 75% | 5.2 | 50% | 25.0 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 42% |
| 8 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 12.2 | 50% | 4.0 | 67% | 24.0 | 75% | 97 | 45 | 28 | 24 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 64% |
| 9 |  BanĂk Ostrava | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2.2 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 9.8 | 25% | 3.5 | 25% | 26.2 | 75% | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 10 |  Plzen | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 7.5 | 0% | 4.8 | 75% | 25.8 | 75% | 57 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 56% |
| 11 |  Zbrojovka Brno | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 10.0 | 33% | 5.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | - |
| 12 |  Bohemians 1905 | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 11.7 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 28.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 13 |  Artis | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 8.2 | 25% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.0 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 30% |
| 14 |  Pardubice | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 9.0 | 25% | 2.8 | 25% | 29.8 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 46% |
| 15 |  Slovácko | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 7.2 | 25% | 3.5 | 50% | 33.5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 52% |
| 16 |  Zlin | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.2 | 25% | 30.5 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 40% |