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Sirens vs Naxxar Lions Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 15:30
Sirens
Sirens
Vs
22%
23%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model signals a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3, giving the match an edge toward a 1-1 finish at 10% probability. Sirens, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded, while Naxxar Lions on the road average 1.15 scored and 1.85 conceded. The odds favour the Lions, with a 55% chance of victory, 23% for a draw and 22% for Sirens to win. The predicted result is an Away win. Recent form shows Sirens struggling after three straight losses, while the Lions also endured two defeats before this fixture. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 6.5 (94.2%), Away +2 handicap (90.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (87.9%), Under 5.5 (87.0%), Over 1.5 (86.3%) and Home under 2.5 goals (85.8%). Each pick is presented with its probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in a tightly contested, goal-laden game.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sirens win
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SirensSirens

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-851W10W80W02L02L30W32W01L34L23LA·FGU01/02H·ZUR07/02A·MTA15/02A·MEL22/02A·SWI01/03A·ST.07/03H·FGU15/03H·BAL06/04H·PIE12/04A·BIR19/04
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.631.791.932.381.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)2.261.631.892.112.601.20
vs Weaker (11)1.821.641.601.602.001.67
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D11D21W01L11D03L00D23L01LA·TAR21/02H·BIR01/03A·MAR08/03H·HIB14/03H·FLO11/04H·VAL15/04A·HAM19/04A·GZI26/04A·MAR02/05H·MOS10/05← Premier LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.571.461.001.182.00
vs Stronger (7)1.001.860.671.001.252.50
vs Similar (23)1.391.481.701.001.151.85
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.3%
Under 1.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.2%
Under 2.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
0-1
6.1%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.2%
Sirens goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
01234
04.2%6.1%7.4%5.2%2.7%
13.4%10.0%9.6%6.7%3.6%
22.8%5.9%6.2%4.4%2.3%
31.2%2.5%2.7%1.9%1.0%
40.4%0.8%0.9%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sirens goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Sirens is 1.14 points worse than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.73).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Sirens is 0.96 goals worse than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (2.27 vs 3.23).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Sirens is 0.65 goals worse than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sirens or Draw
44.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Sirens + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sirens or Naxxar Lions
77.4%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Sirens + Naxxar Lions
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Naxxar Lions
77.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Draw + Naxxar Lions
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sirens over/under 0.5
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5
Over
87.9%
Under
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 3.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Sirens, so a minus line means Sirens give that many goals of a start and Naxxar Lions receive them. At -1, Sirens must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sirens win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sirens)
Sirens -2
3.1%
Draw -2
6.4%
Naxxar Lions +2
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sirens)
Sirens -1
9.5%
Draw -1
12.7%
Naxxar Lions +1
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sirens)
Sirens +1
44.8%
Draw +1
21.2%
Naxxar Lions -1
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sirens)
Sirens +2
66.0%
Draw +2
16.9%
Naxxar Lions -2
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SirensSirens

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W30W01L00D10W10W01L21W21WA·FGU01/02H·ZUR07/02A·MTA15/02A·MEL22/02A·SWI01/03A·ST.07/03H·FGU15/03H·BAL06/04H·PIE12/04A·BIR19/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.570.860.640.940.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.000.580.890.781.100.40
vs Weaker (11)0.730.550.800.400.670.67
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W10W01L01L02L00D12L01LA·TAR21/02H·BIR01/03A·MAR08/03H·HIB14/03H·FLO11/04H·VAL15/04A·HAM19/04A·GZI26/04A·MAR02/05H·MOS10/05← Premier LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.540.460.710.76
vs Stronger (7)0.710.860.330.671.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.610.570.600.400.620.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sirens over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SirensSirens

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W00D50W01L02L20W22D00D13L02LA·FGU01/02H·ZUR07/02A·MTA15/02A·MEL22/02A·SWI01/03A·ST.07/03H·FGU15/03H·BAL06/04H·PIE12/04A·BIR19/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.070.931.291.440.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.261.051.001.331.500.80
vs Weaker (11)1.091.090.801.201.331.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D01L11D00D10W01L00D11D00DA·TAR21/02H·BIR01/03A·MAR08/03H·HIB14/03H·FLO11/04H·VAL15/04A·HAM19/04A·GZI26/04A·MAR02/05H·MOS10/05← Premier LeagueChallenge League →
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.930.920.540.471.24
vs Stronger (7)0.291.000.330.330.251.50
vs Similar (23)0.780.911.100.600.541.15
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sirens over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.7%-------
Under 6.594.2%-------
Away +2 handicap90.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals87.9%-------
Under 5.587.0%-------
Over 1.586.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals85.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals83.7%-------
Draw or Away77.8%-------
Away +1 handicap77.8%-------
Home or Away77.4%-------
Under 4.574.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals72.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
SIR wins
1
Draws
0
NL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sirens vs Naxxar Lions · H/A from SIR
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24ANaxxar Lions Vs SIR1-2
10/12/23HSIR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1

SirensSirens

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26ABirzebbuga Vs SIR3-2
12/04/26HSIR Vs Pietà Hotspurs3-4
06/04/26HSIR Vs Balzan FC0-1
15/03/26HSIR Vs Fgura United3-2
07/03/26ASt. Andrews Vs SIR0-3
01/03/26ASwieqi United Vs SIR2-0
22/02/26AMelita Vs SIR2-0
15/02/26AMtarfa Vs SIR0-8
07/02/26HSIR Vs Zurrieq1-0
01/02/26AFgura United Vs SIR1-5

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HNL Vs Mosta0-1
02/05/26AMarsaxlokk Vs NL3-2
26/04/26AGzira United Vs NL0-0
19/04/26AHamrun Spartans Vs NL3-0
15/04/26HNL Vs Valletta FC1-1
11/04/26HNL Vs Floriana0-1
14/03/26HNL Vs Hibernians2-1
08/03/26AMarsaxlokk Vs NL1-1
01/03/26HNL Vs Birkirkara0-0
21/02/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs NL1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sirens
Sirens
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.38
HomeWWWLL1.26
AwayWLLWL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%35%44%
AVG goals3.603.833.41
Over 1.5 %92%91%93%
Over 2.5 %78%78%78%
Over 3.5 %40%48%33%
Scored1.901.871.93
Conceded1.701.961.48
BTTS68%78%59%
Clean Sheet18%13%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.16
HomeDWLDL1.45
AwayWDLDL0.97
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%27%
AVG goals2.762.403.00
Over 1.5 %74%65%80%
Over 2.5 %50%40%57%
Over 3.5 %32%20%40%
Scored1.181.301.10
Conceded1.581.101.90
BTTS48%50%47%
Clean Sheet20%25%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AttardAttard00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
2SirensSirens00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
3Mgarr UnitedMgarr United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
4Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
5ZurrieqZurrieq00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
7St. AndrewsSt. Andrews00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MelitaMelita00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
10Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
12Fgura UnitedFgura United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
13Gudja UnitedGudja United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
15Victoria HotspursVictoria Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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