Sirens are the clear favourite to win this Malta Challenge League clash, with the model assigning a 69% chance of a home victory and a 14% chance for Zurrieq. The high probability reflects Sirens’ strong home form against weaker opposition, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 1.6, while Zurrieq, playing away against stronger teams, also averages 1.62 goals scored and conceded. The expected total goals is 4.0, and the model predicts a 6+ scoreline with 21% probability, yet the single most likely exact score is 2-1 for Sirens, a 8.7% chance. The match is projected to finish with a home win, a 69% probability, a draw at 17%, and an away win at 14%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (96.5%), Under 7.5 (95.1%), Home +2 handicap (94.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (93.6%), Over 1.5 (91.2%), Under 6.5 (89.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.7%), and Home or Draw (86.2%). The model’s selections highlight a likely low-scoring, home-dominant outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sirens win
68.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq win
13.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sirens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.63
1.79
1.93
2.38
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
2.26
1.63
1.89
2.11
2.60
1.20
vs Weaker (11)
1.82
1.64
1.60
1.60
2.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zurrieq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.77
1.64
2.14
1.75
1.44
vs Stronger (25)
1.60
1.76
1.58
1.92
1.62
1.62
vs Similar (3)
2.67
2.67
2.00
3.50
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.2%
Under 1.5
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.6%
Under 2.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.8%
Under 3.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.7%
3-1
8.0%
2-0
7.2%
1-1
7.0%
3-0
6.6%
4-1
5.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-2
4.9%
Sirens goals ↓
Zurrieq goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
1.7%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
1
4.6%
7.0%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
2
7.2%
8.7%
5.3%
2.1%
0.7%
3
6.6%
8.0%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
4
4.5%
5.5%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sirens goals (down), columns = Zurrieq goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Sirens is 0.36 points better than Zurrieq in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Sirens is 0.64 goals better than Zurrieq in terms of goals scored per game (2.27 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Sirens is 0.23 goals better than Zurrieq in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sirens or Draw
86.2%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
14%
covers Sirens + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sirens or Zurrieq
82.7%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
14%
covers Sirens + Zurrieq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zurrieq
31.1%
Avg Implied -
69%
17%
14%
covers Draw + Zurrieq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sirens over/under 0.5
Over
93.6%
Under
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 3.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sirens, so a minus line means Sirens give that many goals of a start and Zurrieq receive them. At -1, Sirens must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sirens win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sirens)
Sirens -2
29.8%
Draw -2
19.4%
Zurrieq +2
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sirens)
Sirens -1
49.2%
Draw -1
19.8%
Zurrieq +1
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sirens)
Sirens +1
86.2%
Draw +1
8.4%
Zurrieq -1
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sirens)
Sirens +2
94.6%
Draw +2
3.8%
Zurrieq -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sirens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.86
0.64
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.58
0.89
0.78
1.10
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.55
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zurrieq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.36
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (25)
0.52
1.04
0.33
0.83
0.69
1.23
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
Under 1.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.8%
Under 2.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sirens over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sirens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.07
0.93
1.29
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.26
1.05
1.00
1.33
1.50
0.80
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
1.09
0.80
1.20
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zurrieq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.77
1.29
1.14
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (25)
1.08
0.72
1.25
1.08
0.92
0.38
vs Similar (3)
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.8%
Under 0.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.1%
Under 1.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.9%
Under 2.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sirens over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sirens over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Mgarr United
Naxxar Lions
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Gudja United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars