Sirius’ recent slump, losing two in a row and falling 0-3 to BK Hacken, contrasts sharply with Malmo FF’s uneven five-game run that ended 0-3 against Djurgardens IF. The model therefore leans toward an away win, assigning a 40% chance to Malmo FF, 35% to Sirius and 25% to a draw. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most probable single score 1-1 at 11.1%. Sirius, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded, while Malmo FF, on the road, averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. Suggested picks include “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 98.5% (edge 3%), “Under 7.5” at 98.1% (edge 1%), “Home under 2.5 HT goals” at 95.2% (edge 5%), “Under 6.5” at 95.0% (edge 2%), “Away under 2.5 2H goals” at 95.0% (edge 3%), “Home under 2.5 2H goals” at 94.1% (edge 8%), “Home under 3.5 goals” at 92.4% (edge 9%), and “Away under 3.5 goals” at 90.6%.
Results analysis
The win extends Malmo FF’s two-game winning run, while Sirius come off a defeat. The final score was 0-1, an away win that matched the model’s pick and its 40% probability. The model’s selections performed impressively: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.6%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 92.4%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 90.6%. All selections settled, and the model’s favourite result landed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sirius win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied 52.5% · @ 1.77
Edge
-17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.82
Dafabet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
SBO
1.79
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 22.5% · @ 4.14
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.43
Bet365
4.33
Dafabet
4.30
1xBet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Malmo FF win✓ Hit
40.2%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.73
Edge
+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.86
1xBet
3.84
Pinnacle
3.82
Dafabet
3.80
Betfair
3.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sirius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
1.40
3.00
1.13
2.33
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
2.52
1.74
2.73
1.36
2.33
2.08
vs Weaker (7)
3.14
0.29
3.75
0.50
2.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malmo FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.57
1.79
1.64
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.93
1.43
2.00
0.88
1.88
vs Weaker (12)
2.50
1.08
2.50
1.33
2.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.0%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Under 1.5
15.0%
@ 5.76-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Pinnacle
5.97
BetVictor
5.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.43-1.6%
Under 2.5
36.2%
@ 2.70+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
BetVictor
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.7%
@ 2.11-2.9%
Under 3.5
58.3%
@ 1.70+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.19
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Under
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.0%
@ 1.43+1.5%
No
34.0%
@ 2.60-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
William Hil
1.44
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.44
No
BetVictor
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Bet365
2.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 8.08+5.5%
1-2
8.6%@ 11.75+4.8%
2-1
8.0%@ 7.97+2.3%
2-2
6.8%@ 10.96+2.7%
0-2
5.4%@ 23.40+3.5%
0-1 ✓
5.4%@ 15.69+2.5%
1-3
4.9%@ 24.88+3.1%
1-0
4.9%@ 10.66+0.7%
Sirius goals ↓
Malmo FF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
5.4%
5.4%
3.1%
1.3%
1
4.9%
11%
8.6%
4.9%
2.1%
2
4.7%
8.0%
6.8%
3.9%
1.7%
3
2.5%
4.2%
3.6%
2.0%
0.9%
4
1.0%
1.7%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sirius goals (down), columns = Malmo FF goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.21
Hammarby FF
1.89
Djurgardens IF
1.84
AIK Stockholm
1.72
BK Hacken
1.63
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Malmo FF
1.53
Vasteras SK FK
1.53
Gais
1.37
IF Brommapojkarna
1.26
IFK Goteborg
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.00
Degerfors IF
0.84
Orgryte IS
0.74
Halmstad
0.58
Sirius is 0.68 points better than Malmo FF in terms of average points per game (2.21 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.47
Hammarby FF
2.32
Djurgardens IF
2.26
BK Hacken
1.74
Malmo FF
1.74
AIK Stockholm
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42
Mjallby AIF
1.33
Gais
1.32
IFK Goteborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.16
Kalmar FF
1.11
Degerfors IF
0.89
Halmstad
0.68
Sirius is 0.74 goals better than Malmo FF in terms of goals scored per game (2.47 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
0.95
Hammarby FF
0.95
IF Elfsborg
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.00
Sirius
1.42
AIK Stockholm
1.50
BK Hacken
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.53
Malmo FF
1.58
Mjallby AIF
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.74
Halmstad
1.84
IFK Goteborg
2.05
Orgryte IS
2.21
Sirius is 0.16 goals better than Malmo FF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
53%
BK Hacken
52%
AIK Stockholm
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
Sirius is 8.2 percentage points worse than Malmo FF in terms of average possession (48% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sirius
For 6.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malmo FF
For 4.2 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 11.3 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sirius
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.7
11.7
2.8
2.7
3.0
25.0
24.5
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
11.1
10.9
11.4
3.1
3.0
3.2
25.2
24.6
25.9
vs Weaker (11)
11.5
10.0
13.0
1.9
1.8
2.0
24.4
24.2
24.5
% over line
77%
68%
86%
44%
40%
48%
84%
82%
86%
% under line
23%
32%
14%
56%
60%
52%
16%
18%
14%
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malmo FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.2
10.5
3.4
3.5
3.3
25.4
25.7
25.2
vs Stronger (4)
10.5
11.5
9.5
2.5
3.0
2.0
22.5
20.0
25.0
vs Similar (27)
9.7
8.9
10.6
4.0
4.1
3.8
26.3
25.7
26.9
vs Weaker (19)
9.9
9.1
10.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
24.8
27.3
22.3
% over line
47%
45%
48%
52%
60%
44%
74%
82%
67%
% under line
53%
55%
52%
48%
40%
56%
26%
18%
33%
This opponent (Sirius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.6
Sirius
11.1
Orgryte IS
10.7
BK Hacken
10.7
IF Brommapojkarna
10.7
Djurgardens IF
10.5
AIK Stockholm
10.4
Gais
10.3
Degerfors IF
10.3
Halmstad
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.2
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Mjallby AIF
10.0
Vasteras SK FK
9.9
Hammarby FF
9.9
Malmo FF
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.4
BK Hacken
4.3
IFK Goteborg
4.2
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.9
Malmo FF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.7
IF Brommapojkarna
3.7
Vasteras SK FK
3.6
Hammarby FF
3.6
Halmstad
3.5
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Sirius
3.5
Kalmar FF
3.4
Orgryte IS
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Malmo FF
25.9
Djurgardens IF
25.7
IFK Goteborg
25.7
Sirius
25.4
Degerfors IF
25.4
Vasteras SK FK
25.1
Gais
25.1
Mjallby AIF
25.0
BK Hacken
24.4
Hammarby FF
24.4
IF Brommapojkarna
24.3
IF Elfsborg
24.3
AIK Stockholm
24.1
Kalmar FF
23.6
Halmstad
23.3
Orgryte IS
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.8%
@ 1.58+2.5%
Under 9.5
39.2%
@ 2.21-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.24
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.19
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.5%
Under 21.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sirius or Draw✗ Miss
59.8%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
-15.4%
35%
25%
40%
covers Sirius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Sirius or Malmo FF✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 77.7% · @ 1.20
Edge
-2.8%
35%
25%
40%
covers Sirius + Malmo FF
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Draw or Malmo FF✓ Hit
65.2%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.99
Edge
+18.1%
35%
25%
40%
covers Draw + Malmo FF
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.03
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sirius over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
79.4%
@ 1.09-5.5%
Under
20.6%
@ 6.15+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Under
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Sirius over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.9%
@ 1.54-13.9%
Under
53.1%
@ 2.38+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Under
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.43
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
Unibet
2.38
Sirius over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.2%
@ 2.69-13.4%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.42+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.72
1xBet
2.71
Marathonbet
2.71
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Sirius over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 5.39-9.7%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.13+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Malmo FF over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.9%
@ 1.27+8.9%
Under
18.1%
@ 3.44-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.61
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Malmo FF over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.9%
@ 2.34+11.0%
Under
49.1%
@ 1.55-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Under
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Malmo FF over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.5%
@ 5.32+7.0%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.12-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Malmo FF over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 12.50+1.8%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.03-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sirius, so a minus line means Sirius give that many goals of a start and Malmo FF receive them. At -1, Sirius must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sirius win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sirius)Actual: Malmo FF
Sirius -2
6.9%
@ 5.33-10.0%
Draw -2
10.6%
@ 5.12-7.0%
Malmo FF +2
82.6%
@ 1.37+16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Unibet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Handicap -1 (Sirius)Actual: Malmo FF
Sirius -1
17.4%
@ 2.82-14.1%
Draw -1
17.4%
@ 3.87-5.7%
Malmo FF +1
65.2%
@ 1.97+19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.79
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Handicap +1 (Sirius)Actual: Draw
Sirius +1
59.8%
@ 1.24-12.7%
Draw +1
18.8%
@ 5.77+3.2%
Malmo FF -1
21.3%
@ 7.63+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Away
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Unibet
6.75
Handicap +2 (Sirius)Actual: Sirius
Sirius +2
78.7%
@ 1.07-9.0%
Draw +2
12.3%
@ 12.00+4.5%
Malmo FF -2
9.0%
@ 21.00+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sirius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.53
1.60
0.53
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.30
0.70
1.36
0.73
1.25
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.00
2.25
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malmo FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.07
0.57
0.86
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.67
1.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.9%
@ 1.22-3.1%
Under 0.5
27.1%
@ 3.87+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
4.00
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.98
10Bet
3.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.4%
@ 2.09-4.1%
Under 1.5
59.6%
@ 1.68+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.23
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Under
Unibet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 4.53-5.6%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.16+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.50
Under
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sirius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.1%
@ 1.57-4.0%
Under
44.9%
@ 2.27+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Unibet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Sirius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.5%
@ 3.73-2.3%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.23+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.80
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
1xBet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Sirius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 9.54-4.8%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.90
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Malmo FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.2%
@ 2.04-4.4%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.70+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.68
Malmo FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 6.41-3.2%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.08+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Malmo FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 18.67-3.3%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sirius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.87
1.40
0.60
1.20
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.04
1.36
0.64
1.08
1.42
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.29
1.50
0.50
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Malmo FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malmo FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.86
0.71
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.86
1.14
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.42
1.00
0.33
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sirius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.12-2.2%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 5.44+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.09
Under
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.40
Superbet
5.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.3%
@ 1.65-7.2%
Under 1.5
50.7%
@ 2.15+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Under
Unibet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.12
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.9%
@ 3.05-7.6%
Under 2.5
77.1%
@ 1.34+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.32
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sirius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
61.2%
@ 1.38-5.9%
Under
38.8%
@ 2.83+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Under
10Bet
2.88
1xBet
2.85
Betano
2.82
Superbet
2.75
Sirius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.5%
@ 2.77-12.0%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.39+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Sirius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 6.58-6.7%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.08+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.90
1xBet
6.80
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Malmo FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.4%
@ 1.74-3.7%
Under
50.6%
@ 1.97+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Malmo FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 4.68-2.5%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.16+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Malmo FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 12.25-3.7%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.0%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+16.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.9%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.09
-2.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
79.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
-5.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
78.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.39
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
+12.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.5%
1.23
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.5%
1.28
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
75.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-7.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.9%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.5%
1.32
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
+3.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sirius
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Ure67%
Isak Bjerkebo58%
Mohamed Soumah25%
August Ljungberg20%
Neo Jönsson18%
Tobias Anker12%
Henrik Castegren12%
M. Lindberg11%
V. Svensson11%
Victor Ekstrom10%
Odera Samuel Adindu7%
Oscar Krusnell0%
S. Sandberg0%
Joakim Persson0%
M. Heier0%
Noel Milleskog0%
D. Celic0%
C. Nildén0%
Matthias Nartey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Heier28%
Oscar Krusnell22%
Tobias Anker19%
Mohamed Soumah19%
Neo Jönsson18%
M. Lindberg11%
D. Celic11%
Victor Ekstrom10%
Joakim Persson8%
C. Nildén7%
Odera Samuel Adindu7%
V. Svensson5%
S. Sandberg0%
Henrik Castegren0%
Noel Milleskog0%
R. Ure0%
Isak Bjerkebo0%
August Ljungberg0%
Matthias Nartey0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isak Bjerkebo26%
August Ljungberg20%
Neo Jönsson18%
Oscar Krusnell17%
Joakim Persson17%
M. Lindberg16%
V. Svensson16%
R. Ure13%
M. Heier11%
Tobias Anker6%
S. Sandberg0%
Henrik Castegren0%
Noel Milleskog0%
Mohamed Soumah0%
D. Celic0%
C. Nildén0%
Victor Ekstrom0%
Matthias Nartey0%
Odera Samuel Adindu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isak Bjerkebo58%
R. Ure20%
August Ljungberg20%
Neo Jönsson18%
V. Svensson5%
Oscar Krusnell0%
S. Sandberg0%
Henrik Castegren0%
M. Lindberg0%
Joakim Persson0%
Tobias Anker0%
M. Heier0%
Noel Milleskog0%
Mohamed Soumah0%
D. Celic0%
C. Nildén0%
Victor Ekstrom0%
Matthias Nartey0%
Odera Samuel Adindu0%
Malmo FF
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego García38%
Erik Botheim37%
Pontus Jansson33%
Adrian Skogmar22%
Sead Hakšabanović21%
Taha Ali17%
Kenan Busuladžić13%
Anton Höög11%
Noah Åstrand John10%
Oscar Sjostrand8%
Busanello7%
Andrej Đurić7%
Otto Rosengren6%
Jens Stryger Larsen6%
Robin Olsen0%
Arnór Sigurðsson0%
Johan Dahlin0%
Anders Christiansen0%
Yanis Karabelyov0%
Johan Karlsson0%
Colin Rösler0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen0%
Malte Palsson0%
Bleon Kurtulus0%
Jovan Milosavljević0%
Theodor Lundbergh0%
Isaac Assibu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kenan Busuladžić40%
Otto Rosengren35%
Pontus Jansson33%
Andrej Đurić33%
Busanello29%
Bleon Kurtulus25%
Yanis Karabelyov20%
Noah Åstrand John20%
Jens Stryger Larsen17%
Taha Ali17%
Theodor Lundbergh16%
Diego García12%
Malte Palsson12%
Adrian Skogmar11%
Sead Hakšabanović11%
Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen9%
Robin Olsen8%
Oscar Sjostrand8%
Arnór Sigurðsson0%
Erik Botheim0%
Johan Dahlin0%
Anders Christiansen0%
Johan Karlsson0%
Colin Rösler0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Jovan Milosavljević0%
Anton Höög0%
Isaac Assibu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sead Hakšabanović32%
Otto Rosengren18%
Taha Ali17%
Erik Botheim16%
Kenan Busuladžić13%
Jens Stryger Larsen11%
Anton Höög11%
Theodor Lundbergh11%
Colin Rösler10%
Noah Åstrand John10%
Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen9%
Oscar Sjostrand8%
Robin Olsen0%
Arnór Sigurðsson0%
Johan Dahlin0%
Anders Christiansen0%
Yanis Karabelyov0%
Pontus Jansson0%
Busanello0%
Johan Karlsson0%
Diego García0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Andrej Đurić0%
Malte Palsson0%
Adrian Skogmar0%
Bleon Kurtulus0%
Jovan Milosavljević0%
Isaac Assibu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anders Christiansen33%
Erik Botheim21%
Sead Hakšabanović21%
Diego García12%
Otto Rosengren12%
Anton Höög11%
Adrian Skogmar6%
Robin Olsen0%
Arnór Sigurðsson0%
Johan Dahlin0%
Jens Stryger Larsen0%
Yanis Karabelyov0%
Pontus Jansson0%
Busanello0%
Johan Karlsson0%
Colin Rösler0%
Taha Ali0%
Emmanuel Ekong0%
Andrej Đurić0%
Noah Åstrand John0%
Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen0%
Malte Palsson0%
Kenan Busuladžić0%
Bleon Kurtulus0%
Oscar Sjostrand0%
Jovan Milosavljević0%
Theodor Lundbergh0%
Isaac Assibu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (21)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
IB (25)
€9m
HAL (20)
€8m
OI (26)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
Sirius's squad is €7m less valuable than Malmo FF's (€28m vs €35m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
Sirius's attack is €7m more valuable than Malmo FF's (€18m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
IB (4)
€2m
HAL (4)
€1m
Sirius's midfield is €6m less valuable than Malmo FF's (€5m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
SIR (9)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
Sirius's defence is €8m less valuable than Malmo FF's (€4m vs €12m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
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Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
IF Elfsborg
BK Hacken
AIK Stockholm
Vasteras SK FK
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
IFK Goteborg
Mjallby AIF
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad