Siroki Brijeg’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only 0.7 goals on average against teams of similar strength, while BSK Banja Luka have struggled to find the net away, scoring just 0.7 and conceding 1.2. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair, with an expected 2.2 goals and a 28 % chance of exactly two goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the hosts, a 14.6 % probability. The home side’s 52 % win probability, the draw at 29 %, and the away win at 19 % confirm a home win as the favoured outcome. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2 %), Under 5.5 (97.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2 %), Home +2 handicap (94.1 %) and Under 4.5 (92.7 %). Recent form shows Siroki Brijeg on a two-game winning run after a 2-1 victory over Radnik Bijeljina, while Banja Luka return from a defeat, 0-1 to FK Sarajevo.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Siroki Brijeg win
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka win
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Siroki Brijeg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.40
1.13
1.00
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.60
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.10
1.30
1.22
0.78
1.00
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (BSK Banja Luka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BSK Banja Luka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
2.17
0.67
2.33
0.67
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
0.67
2.33
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.6%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.2%
1-1
13.1%
2-0
11.1%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.5%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
4.9%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
BSK Banja Luka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.5%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
4.9%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.2%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.8%
4.8%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = BSK Banja Luka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Siroki Brijeg is 0.03 points better than BSK Banja Luka in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Siroki Brijeg is 0.06 goals better than BSK Banja Luka in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Siroki Brijeg is 0.12 goals worse than BSK Banja Luka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Siroki Brijeg or Draw
81.2%
Avg Implied -
53%
28%
19%
covers Siroki Brijeg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg or BSK Banja Luka
72.1%
Avg Implied -
53%
28%
19%
covers Siroki Brijeg + BSK Banja Luka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BSK Banja Luka
46.8%
Avg Implied -
53%
28%
19%
covers Draw + BSK Banja Luka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 0.5
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 1.5
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 2.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Siroki Brijeg, so a minus line means Siroki Brijeg give that many goals of a start and BSK Banja Luka receive them. At -1, Siroki Brijeg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Siroki Brijeg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Siroki Brijeg)
Siroki Brijeg -2
11.9%
Draw -2
16.8%
BSK Banja Luka +2
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Siroki Brijeg)
Siroki Brijeg -1
28.6%
Draw -1
24.6%
BSK Banja Luka +1
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Siroki Brijeg)
Siroki Brijeg +1
81.2%
Draw +1
12.6%
BSK Banja Luka -1
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Siroki Brijeg)
Siroki Brijeg +2
93.7%
Draw +2
4.8%
BSK Banja Luka -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.53
0.47
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.56
0.55
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (BSK Banja Luka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BSK Banja Luka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.2%
Under 0.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.0%
Under 1.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.3%
Under 2.5
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Siroki Brijeg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.10
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.22
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BSK Banja Luka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BSK Banja Luka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.0%
Under 1.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Siroki Brijeg's squad is €1m more valuable than BSK Banja Luka's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and BSK Banja Luka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg and BSK Banja Luka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg and BSK Banja Luka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
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Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
Radnik Bijeljina