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Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 22/09/2023
Time: 18:00
Final 1-0
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Vs
41%
29%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Siroki Brijeg win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo win✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D12L10W12L21W10W11D20W21WA·FK 29/04H·POS06/05A·SLO15/05H·SLO21/05A·LEO28/05A·POS04/08H·TUZ13/08A·VEL20/08H·GOŠ27/08H·ZVI17/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.101.380.751.071.50
vs Stronger (8)0.752.001.332.330.401.80
vs Similar (19)1.320.741.330.331.291.43
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-553W24L22D11D12L30W21W10W22D10WA·VEL21/05H·IGM28/05A·TOR13/07H·TOR20/07H·SLO30/07H·POS11/08A·TUZ21/08H·VEL28/08A·GOŠ02/09H·ZRI16/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.201.381.001.711.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.111.110.830.831.671.67
vs Weaker (21)1.711.241.701.101.731.36
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0 ✓
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.4%
1-2
7.5%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
2-2
5.3%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
FK Sarajevo goals →
01234
08.4%7.5%5.3%2.1%0.6%
19.0%14%7.5%3.0%0.9%
27.2%8.8%5.3%2.2%0.7%
33.4%4.2%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.2%1.5%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = FK Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.36
Zrinjski
2.30
Velež
1.79
FK Sarajevo
1.70
Posušje
1.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Sloga Doboj
1.27
Siroki Brijeg
1.18
GOŠK Gabela
1.03
Igman Konjic
1.00
Tuzla City
0.82
Zvijezda 09
0.64
Siroki Brijeg is 0.52 points worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.70).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.30
Borac Banja Luka
2.06
FK Sarajevo
1.73
Velež
1.52
Tuzla City
1.36
Igman Konjic
1.21
GOŠK Gabela
1.15
Sloga Doboj
1.12
Siroki Brijeg
1.12
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.06
Posušje
1.06
Zvijezda 09
1.00
Siroki Brijeg is 0.61 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.79
Zrinjski
0.82
Velež
0.85
Posušje
0.88
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.09
FK Sarajevo
1.15
Siroki Brijeg
1.36
Sloga Doboj
1.52
GOŠK Gabela
1.94
Igman Konjic
2.03
Tuzla City
2.09
Zvijezda 09
2.18
Siroki Brijeg is 0.21 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D00D10W10W10W10W10W10W20WA·FK 29/04H·POS06/05A·SLO15/05H·SLO21/05A·LEO28/05A·POS04/08H·TUZ13/08A·VEL20/08H·GOŠ27/08H·ZVI17/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.370.500.310.500.43
vs Stronger (8)0.250.750.331.000.200.60
vs Similar (19)0.470.260.420.170.570.43
vs Weaker (3)1.330.002.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W23L01L10W11D10W20W00D01L00DA·VEL21/05H·IGM28/05A·TOR13/07H·TOR20/07H·SLO30/07H·POS11/08A·TUZ21/08H·VEL28/08A·GOŠ02/09H·ZRI16/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.620.440.710.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.330.330.330.170.330.67
vs Weaker (21)0.810.520.800.600.820.45
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D12L00D02L11D00D01L10W01LA·FK 29/04H·POS06/05A·SLO15/05H·SLO21/05A·LEO28/05A·POS04/08H·TUZ13/08A·VEL20/08H·GOŠ27/08H·ZVI17/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.880.440.571.07
vs Stronger (8)0.501.251.001.330.201.20
vs Similar (19)0.840.470.920.170.711.00
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W01L21W01L01L20W01L10W21W10WA·VEL21/05H·IGM28/05A·TOR13/07H·TOR20/07H·SLO30/07H·POS11/08A·TUZ21/08H·VEL28/08A·GOŠ02/09H·ZRI16/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.730.750.561.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.780.780.500.671.331.00
vs Weaker (21)0.900.710.900.500.910.91
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Siroki Brijeg's squad is €5m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€4m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg's attack is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg's midfield is €1m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg's defence is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
SB wins
1
Draws
2
FS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo · H/A from SB
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/23AFK Sarajevo Vs SB2-1
05/03/23HSB Vs FK Sarajevo1-3
11/09/22AFK Sarajevo Vs SB0-0

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/23HSB Vs Zvijezda 092-1
27/08/23HSB Vs GOŠK Gabela2-0
20/08/23AVelež Vs SB1-1
13/08/23HSB Vs Tuzla City1-0
04/08/23APosušje Vs SB1-2
28/05/23ALeotar Vs SB2-1
21/05/23HSB Vs Sloga Doboj1-0
15/05/23ASloboda Tuzla Vs SB2-1
06/05/23HSB Vs Posušje1-1
29/04/23AFK Sarajevo Vs SB2-1

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/23HFS Vs Zrinjski1-0
02/09/23AGOŠK Gabela Vs FS2-2
28/08/23HFS Vs Velež1-0
21/08/23ATuzla City Vs FS1-2
11/08/23HFS Vs Posušje3-0
30/07/23HFS Vs Sloga Doboj1-2
20/07/23HFS Vs Torpedo Kutaisi1-1
13/07/23ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs FS2-2
28/05/23HFS Vs Igman Konjic2-4
21/05/23AVelež Vs FS3-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.61
HomeDWWWW2.20
AwayLLLWD0.94
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %45%65%22%
AVG goals2.241.952.56
Over 1.5 %61%55%67%
Over 2.5 %37%25%50%
Over 3.5 %16%15%17%
Scored1.211.351.06
Conceded1.030.601.50
BTTS45%35%56%
Clean Sheet45%65%22%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.63
HomeDLWWW1.77
AwayLWDWD1.47
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.852.553.21
Over 1.5 %71%64%79%
Over 2.5 %51%45%58%
Over 3.5 %37%27%47%
Scored1.541.451.63
Conceded1.321.091.58
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet27%41%11%
Corners11.5010.0013.00
Cards6.006.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3378
73%
2.4
6826+42
2.8
76%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5142.10.8
-
2ZrinjskiZrinjski3376
73%
2.3
7627+49
3.1
79%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.30.8
-
3VeležVelež3359
48%
1.8
5028+22
2.4
61%
36%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.50.8
-
4FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3356
48%
1.7
5738+19
2.9
76%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.71.2
-
5PosušjePosušje3348
39%
1.5
3529+6
1.9
61%
24%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
6Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3343
39%
1.3
3536-1
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.11.1
-
7Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3342
39%
1.3
3750-13
2.6
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.5
-
8Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3339
33%
1.2
3745-8
2.5
70%
45%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.11.4
-
9GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3334
24%
1.0
3864-26
3.1
79%
67%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3333
27%
1.0
4067-27
3.2
82%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
11Tuzla CityTuzla City3327
21%
0.8
4569-24
3.5
91%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
12Zvijezda 09Zvijezda 093321
18%
0.6
3372-39
3.2
85%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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