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Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 3-3
Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Vs
30%
28%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Siroki Brijeg win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W22D10W11D02L30W11D01L22D03LA·SLO20/05H·FK 26/05A·ZEL03/08A·RAD11/08H·VEL18/08A·IGM23/08H·SLO01/09A·SLO15/09H·GOŠ20/09A·ZRI24/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.531.311.460.941.59
vs Stronger (7)1.002.291.002.001.002.50
vs Similar (20)1.101.201.441.330.821.09
vs Weaker (3)1.332.001.001.001.502.50
Clean sheet %13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D03L31W31W31W20W22D10W11DH·AKT18/07H·SPA25/07A·SPA31/07H·SLO04/08A·SLO12/08H·GOŠ19/08H·RAD30/08H·POS14/09A·BOR21/09H·ZEL25/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.232.241.121.231.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.731.450.751.000.711.71
vs Weaker (19)2.421.112.691.151.831.00
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
1-0
6.8%
2-2
5.6%
Siroki Brijeg goals ↓
FK Sarajevo goals →
01234
07.6%8.4%7.2%3.6%1.3%
16.8%13%9.0%4.5%1.7%
25.0%7.5%5.6%2.8%1.0%
32.1%3.1%2.3%1.2%0.4%
40.6%1.0%0.7%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Siroki Brijeg goals (down), columns = FK Sarajevo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Zrinjski
2.48
Borac Banja Luka
2.45
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.97
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Sloga Doboj
1.33
Velež
1.27
Radnik Bijeljina
1.21
Posušje
1.12
Igman Konjic
0.88
GOŠK Gabela
0.48
Sloboda Tuzla
0.30
Siroki Brijeg is 0.58 points worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Zrinjski
2.18
FK Sarajevo
1.79
Borac Banja Luka
1.76
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.67
Velež
1.36
Radnik Bijeljina
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.30
Posušje
1.09
Sloga Doboj
1.06
Igman Konjic
0.91
GOŠK Gabela
0.85
Sloboda Tuzla
0.64
Siroki Brijeg is 0.48 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.79).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.39
Zrinjski
0.52
FK Sarajevo
0.73
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.15
Velež
1.18
Posušje
1.18
Sloga Doboj
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.39
Radnik Bijeljina
1.58
Igman Konjic
2.00
Sloboda Tuzla
2.15
GOŠK Gabela
2.30
Siroki Brijeg is 0.67 goals worse than FK Sarajevo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 0.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D21W10W10W01L10W01L01L20W01LA·SLO20/05H·FK 26/05A·ZEL03/08A·RAD11/08H·VEL18/08A·IGM23/08H·SLO01/09A·SLO15/09H·GOŠ20/09A·ZRI24/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.730.540.620.470.82
vs Stronger (7)0.431.290.671.000.251.50
vs Similar (20)0.550.450.560.440.550.45
vs Weaker (3)0.331.330.001.000.501.50
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D02L11D31W20W10W10W10W01LH·AKT18/07H·SPA25/07A·SPA31/07H·SLO04/08A·SLO12/08H·GOŠ19/08H·RAD30/08H·POS14/09A·BOR21/09H·ZEL25/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.600.880.410.620.85
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.181.000.000.750.291.14
vs Weaker (19)1.110.371.150.311.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D01L01L20W10W00D02L02LA·SLO20/05H·FK 26/05A·ZEL03/08A·RAD11/08H·VEL18/08A·IGM23/08H·SLO01/09A·SLO15/09H·GOŠ20/09A·ZRI24/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.770.850.470.76
vs Stronger (7)0.571.000.331.000.751.00
vs Similar (20)0.550.750.890.890.270.64
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Sarajevo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L20W00D11D10W12L00D10WH·AKT18/07H·SPA25/07A·SPA31/07H·SLO04/08A·SLO12/08H·GOŠ19/08H·RAD30/08H·POS14/09A·BOR21/09H·ZEL25/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.631.350.710.620.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.550.450.750.250.430.57
vs Weaker (19)1.320.741.540.850.830.50
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Siroki Brijeg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Siroki Brijeg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Sarajevo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Siroki Brijeg's squad is €5m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€4m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg's attack is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Siroki Brijeg's midfield is €1m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Siroki Brijeg's defence is €2m less valuable than FK Sarajevo's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
SB wins
2
Draws
2
FS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo · H/A from SB
DateH/AGameScore
26/05/24HSB Vs FK Sarajevo2-2
18/02/24AFK Sarajevo Vs SB1-3
22/09/23HSB Vs FK Sarajevo1-0
29/04/23AFK Sarajevo Vs SB2-1
05/03/23HSB Vs FK Sarajevo1-3
11/09/22AFK Sarajevo Vs SB0-0

Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/24AZrinjski Vs SB3-0
20/09/24HSB Vs GOŠK Gabela2-2
15/09/24ASloga Doboj Vs SB1-0
01/09/24HSB Vs Sloboda Tuzla1-1
23/08/24AIgman Konjic Vs SB0-3
18/08/24HSB Vs Velež0-2
11/08/24ARadnik Bijeljina Vs SB1-1
03/08/24AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs SB0-1
26/05/24HSB Vs FK Sarajevo2-2
20/05/24ASloga Doboj Vs SB2-3

FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/24HFS Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo1-1
21/09/24ABorac Banja Luka Vs FS0-1
14/09/24HFS Vs Posušje2-2
30/08/24HFS Vs Radnik Bijeljina2-0
19/08/24HFS Vs GOŠK Gabela3-1
12/08/24ASloga Doboj Vs FS1-3
04/08/24HFS Vs Sloboda Tuzla3-1
31/07/24ASpartak Trnava Vs FS3-0
25/07/24HFS Vs Spartak Trnava0-0
18/07/24HFS Vs Aktobe1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Siroki Brijeg
Siroki Brijeg
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDL1.12
HomeLDLDD1.46
AwayWDWLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals2.382.332.42
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %44%33%54%
Over 3.5 %22%25%19%
Scored1.061.250.88
Conceded1.321.081.54
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet22%33%12%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
Bosnia: Premijer Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.66
HomeWWWDD1.89
AwayDWLWW1.39
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%39%
AVG goals2.963.112.78
Over 1.5 %76%89%61%
Over 2.5 %58%63%52%
Over 3.5 %34%37%30%
Scored1.722.041.35
Conceded1.241.071.43
BTTS54%63%43%
Clean Sheet30%37%22%
Corners11.5010.0013.00
Cards6.006.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ZrinjskiZrinjski3382
79%
2.5
7217+55
2.7
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
4232.20.5
-
2Borac Banja LukaBorac Banja Luka3381
79%
2.5
5813+45
2.2
64%
30%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5141.80.4
-
3FK SarajevoFK Sarajevo3365
55%
2.0
5924+35
2.5
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.80.7
-
4Zeljeznicar SarajevoZeljeznicar Sarajevo3365
61%
2.0
5538+17
2.8
76%
55%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.71.2
-
5Siroki BrijegSiroki Brijeg3346
39%
1.4
4346-3
2.7
73%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.31.4
-
6Sloga DobojSloga Doboj3344
39%
1.3
3545-10
2.4
67%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.11.4
-
7VeležVelež3342
30%
1.3
4539+6
2.5
70%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.41.2
-
8Radnik BijeljinaRadnik Bijeljina3340
36%
1.2
4452-8
2.9
82%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2011.31.6
-
9PosušjePosušje3337
30%
1.1
3639-3
2.3
73%
48%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Igman KonjicIgman Konjic3329
24%
0.9
3066-36
2.9
79%
61%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11GOŠK GabelaGOŠK Gabela3316
12%
0.5
2876-48
3.2
88%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
12Sloboda TuzlaSloboda Tuzla3310
3%
0.3
2171-50
2.8
76%
42%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →

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